eyewall Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, PivotPoint said: Good to see you on here. I use to creep all the time in the Northern NE Winter thread. Always enjoyed reading your stuff. My avatar pic is side-country at Stowe. Sad that I'm not allowed to up to VT this year. Yeah I am not either. My record single snowfall occurred up there of 30 inches in the Pi Day storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: It’s not negativity it’s an analysis. I know I haven’t posted in here much in the past year, but there used to be some good analysis and debates, now it just seems like a wish cast for snow and trying to hug all the models that give the most snow vs not relying so much on the guidance and more toward the actual synoptic features in play. What happened to all the key posters in here? I think RR meant everyone else was being negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, wxtrix said: i got 32” in 2016 without any deformation banding. you just need rates. Negative. The whole storm was a deform band at one point lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 anyone have a sounding up my way from the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 9 minutes ago, eyewall said: I am deciding between targeting Hagerstown or Hancock in MD perhaps. Chambersburg, PA would be backup if I had to go that far north. I just booked a hotel in Emmitsburg, MD - just south of Gettysburg. That is a decent spot, I am hoping. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Ha same thought. 3” of snow, 1” of sleet, and 2-3” of snow on top? All in. Very classic storm for this region. The kind of storm our grandpappies enjoyed a few times every winter but have seemingly gone extinct lately. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 9 minutes ago, mappy said: sweet thanks! Yea you're looking [conservatively] at 7" - 10" on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Euro looked great to me. DT first guess map coming at 3pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, wxtrix said: i got 32” in 2016 without any deformation banding. you just need rates. Duration of that was much longer though. But yeah, rates do help! You are gonna get clobbered! Enjoy! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Yea you're looking [conservatively] at 7" - 10" on the Euro. nice, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, North Balti Zen said: I just booked a hotel in Emmitsburg, MD - just south of Gettysburg. That is a decent spot, I am hoping. Should be a great location for you. About 10 min. North of Thurmont. Beautiful area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, wxtrix said: 15 miles? not from Stephens City. he moved but didn't update his location. hes in MD now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: It’s not negativity it’s an analysis. I know I haven’t posted in here much in the past year, but there used to be some good analysis and debates, now it just seems like a wish cast for snow and trying to hug all the models that give the most snow vs not relying so much on the guidance and more toward the actual synoptic features in play. What happened to all the key posters in here? Can i ask you a stupid question?. I obviously am aware that you know 2,000 times the amount of me about meteorology but how can you be a thousand percent sure that the models won't shift SE in the next 24 hours?. You came off as if this is written in stone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 18 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Pretty funny right, I mean in what year would a Euro like that come out 48 hours before an event and people wouldn't be good with it? Feels like one of those cut the totals in half kind of storms though because of it saying how much snow was falling today in spots that got none but still a solid start to winter if it's true I'm not and wouldn't be good with it, but then again I don't live 35 miles northwest of the cities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Temps definitely more favorable in Baltimore. Just shift the storm a dozen miles SE, and/or have a similar temperature improvement in the next update, please. Won't take much to make me feel a lot more confident in at least getting the grass covered. Wonder what the EPS will do in terms of clustering the lows on the members for 12z. Either way, let's see if 18z and 00z will help us out and then dive into meso mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, wxtrix said: 15 miles? not from Stephens City. I think he moved up off 522 NW of town somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 12z euro using kuchera is about a foot in Baltimore proper. Drops off steeply south of there. Woof. Gonna be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Not a wishcast but just a realistic question that I hope I won't get berated for...Is it a typical track for a storm to shoot from ILM to the mouth of the bay or would a storm seek out the baroclinic zone just offshore? I don't have the memory that most do on here with storms but it seems like an odd track to shoot up the bay then east. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I just booked a hotel in Emmitsburg, MD - just south of Gettysburg. That is a decent spot, I am hoping. Definitely a solid spot. Our son goes to mt saint marys and lives off campus in Thurmont. Looks like a foot is almost a sure bet up there. Looking similar here in Union bridge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I just booked a hotel in Emmitsburg, MD - just south of Gettysburg. That is a decent spot, I am hoping. Emmitsburg is a very nice little town, which I've always passed on my way to ski Liberty, which is right on the other side of the border. The surrounding landscape will certainly give it a very wintry feel. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 32 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Do we get BBC’d or no Not sure what channel that is in your area 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, mattie g said: I'm not and wouldn't be good with it, but then again I don't live 35 miles northwest of the cities. I have a balcony you can sleep on if you want to come watch the sleet? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: It’s not negativity it’s an analysis. I know I haven’t posted in here much in the past year, but there used to be some good analysis and debates, now it just seems like a wish cast for snow and trying to hug all the models that give the most snow vs not relying so much on the guidance and more toward the actual synoptic features in play. What happened to all the key posters in here? A majority of of us have been completely starved of snow the last couple years. Analysis is fine and all, but when you've been fighting for scraps for 1000 days, you start thinking that a steaming pile of sh*t looks appetizing. Besides, most of us don't really know all that much about the science behind it - we're just fans of fun weather. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Euro looked great to me. DT first guess map coming at 3pm I think you just saw it dude 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, leesburg 04 said: I have a balcony you can sleep on if you want to come watch the sleet? I thought that's where Jay's wintery mix is hosted from. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, wxtrix said: stop by Chubby’s for some barbecue. I second and third this motion. Chubbys is life. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, leesburg 04 said: I have a balcony you can sleep on if you want to come watch the sleet? Nice. I'll bring my own sleeping blanket. But if your ladyfriend will be staying over then I want no part of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, ravensrule said: Can i ask you a stupid question?. I obviously am aware that you know 2,000 times the amount of me about meteorology but how can you be a thousand percent sure that the models won't shift SE in the next 24 hours?. You came off as if this is written in stone. Sometimes I just have a hunch. Can’t explain it. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 22 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: 15 miles from me. Ugh. I think I'm in a decent spot for this. Looking for the absolute sweet spot is both silly and futile 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, wxtrix said: stop by Chubby’s for some barbecue. Oooooo, fantastic, Thanks for the heads up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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