mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: This feels like a very sloppy 4-10 across the area kind of thing to me. A pretty classic event for the region, actually. We don't get these types of standard-issue events much anymore. didnt you give me shit a few days ago about being worried about mixing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: damn dude that's harsh Could see 3-6/4-8 for Leesburg but no way are we seeing 12-18 digital fantasy. Take it, D.C. gets C-1 then heavy rain with temps in the 40s. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I honestly just want to be able to slant 4-6 in the grass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: Could see 3-6/4-8 for Leesburg but no way are we seeing 12-18 digital fantasy. Take it, D.C. gets C-1 then heavy rain with temps in the 40s. Ji will be crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, jayyy said: Believe it was around Christmas 2005. A cold driving rain turned over to 6+“ of heavy snow in a 8-10 hour window. Not sure I’ve seen a storm where 850s crashed as quickly as with that storm. A classic no doubt! Christmas 2002. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, mappy said: didnt you give me shit a few days ago about being worried about mixing? You will get the lollis to 10-12 up there. No mixing. Just lack of precip. I said a few days ago these monster rate events often seem to fizzle and those with good temps waste hours getting spitting snow while those getting yellow-banded are at 35 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I’ll wait for one more Euro run before I press.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: damn dude that's harsh Its reality. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Scraff said: I’ll wait for one more Euro run before I press.... Same. Still time for some minor adjustments that would make a big difference for us in terms of what we get, but the writing may be on the wall. The fat lady is possibly warming up her voice. This would be a fitting finish for 2020 to have the rug pulled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 CMC running a tight line right down I-95. Temps in the cities are just below freezing with heavy precip. Could be a sleet bomb in the making. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Interestingly, the 06z EPS seems to be a bit more uncertain than the 00z. Bit more strung out in terms of member lows from NW to SE at hour 72. Only potential positive I can see to hang onto. May still have time and "room" amongst that uncertainty in the ensemble for a slight shift in that rain/snow line, but the densest clusters and continuing trend are disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Ji will be crushedYa that's not going to work for me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, PhineasC said: You will get the lollis to 10-12 up there. No mixing. Just lack of precip. I said a few days ago these monster rate events often seem to fizzle and those with good temps waste hours getting spitting snow while those getting yellow-banded are at 35 degrees. yeah temps dont look like a problem here, unless that low comes inland more. like you said, the precip amount itself. i will take whatever falls of course. snow is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 GFS has been consistently getting wetter out here from yesterday’s runs. 18z yesterday threw 0.3” QPF here...today’s 12z (including upslope) is just shy of an 1”. 3k starting tomorrow will start to be useful to hone in on mesoscale features. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, Dabuckeyes said: CMC running a tight line right down I-95. Temps in the cities are just below freezing with heavy precip. Could be a sleet bomb in the making. Soundings are showing more sleet than rain in the cities. CAA could be enough to at least hold off rain for some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 9 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Ji will be crushed Ya that's not going to work for me What will you tell your cult? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 13 minutes ago, Yeoman said: We're no good at analfront snows 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 8 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Its reality. Just a tad too much emotion if i'm being honest but I'm sure you have a handle on this thing at this point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Just a tad too much emotion if i'm being honest but I'm sure you have a handle on this thing at this point I leave emotion out of the forecast. I’m helping emergency managers make decisions so must remove emotion and put analysis and facts on the table.no emotion in my post, just facts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: Just a tad too much emotion if i'm being honest but I'm sure you have a handle on this thing at this point he isn't going to Sully us into the potomac. This is straight up air florida 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 19 minutes ago, Yeoman said: We're no good at analfront snows I don't like brown snow anyways 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: I leave emotion out of the forecast. I’m helping emergency managers make decisions so must remove emotion and put analysis and facts on the table.no emotion in my post, just facts. Well then I guess my emotion detector is off. Good luck with your forecast and stay safe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 GGEM notice how the purple line holds steady in every other area, while it keeps chipping away in the DC area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I jinxed things with my map. Might need to update. Birds gonna need to work overtime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Does anyone else hate it when Amped gets it right by not breaking character? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, H2O said: Does anyone else hate it when Amped gets it right by not breaking character? So easy to be a contrarian negative weenie in this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 It's always fun until reality sets in. Climo wins again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 38 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: How about we wait before you bless us with lessons. And CAD doesn’t usually apply in situations where lows run the Piedmont Lot of hot takes here today. Got accused of "cliff diving" or whatever because I'm a lifelong residents of these here parts, and I've seen this movie a million times and I know how it works out. People know I don't just give up easily...shit sometimes I'm the last man standing when everyone bails. But this one doesn't feel right...I'm talking for us 95/DC folks. For you...kick back, open up a can of your favorite brew and get ready for the show. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, Amped said: GGEM notice how the purple line holds steady in every other area, while it keeps chipping away in the DC area. Chipping away a lot in the Baltimore area as well, especially the most recent run. Ouch. I think we can all see where this is going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Lot of hot takes here today. Got accused of "cliff diving" or whatever because I'm a lifelong residents of these here parts, and I've seen this movie a million times and I know how it works out. People know I don't just give up easily...shit sometimes I'm the last man standing when everyone bails. But this one doesn't feel right...I'm talking for us 95/DC folks. For you...kick back, open up a can of your favorite brew and get ready for the show. I still think we at least cover the ground and get a fair amount of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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