PhineasC Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: One thing that isn’t being mentioned is how the gfs seems to get a little bit drier each run I mentioned it at 18z yesterday. I was told the models still had enough precip to support December 2009 totals across the land. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Relying on a "heavy rain to CCB snows as the low departs" scenario is likely to be a heartbreaker. We do snow chasing rain good once every half decade here it seems. In recent memory 1/26/2011 and 3/5/2015 are prime examples. Although those share basically no similarities, 1/26 was ULL swinging in and 3/5 was an Arctic airmass. So yeah, we're screwed lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 38 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: What do you think about our area On Wednesday? I think we get a period of snow that accumulates on the grass that mixes with sleet and rain...I go over to plain rain with sleet mixed in by around dinner time and then all goes back to snow and ends by 10pm and we get 1-2 inches of slush. We initially get a watch that gets converted to a WWA tomorrow. And we hope for another event and do it all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: So.. What should we be looking for to see it trend better? Better 50/50? Closes off 850 sooner? Further south track? All the above? This thing is bleeding westward at an alarming rate since yesterday. We have had some glimpses of hope in an otherwise telltale sign. cooler waters lol. i think we're just dealing with a mid-dec coastal versus january. emotions aside, the solution is pretty reasonable. on the plus side, it's not going to take much to shift the r/s line southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: One thing that isn’t being mentioned is how the gfs seems to get a little bit drier each run Agreed. Only 1.1 QPF for the event out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, IronTy said: That worked out for me once for that cold storm back in like 2005. Other than that it never seems to materialize. Believe it was around Christmas 2005. A cold driving rain turned over to 6+“ of heavy snow in a 8-10 hour window. Not sure I’ve seen a storm where 850s crashed as quickly as with that storm. A classic no doubt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Not much left to go on with this one. Euro will come in line with the other guidance. 500 pattern is another clue...a few days ago it showed the H5 low closing off and deepening coming across, now it’s just a progressive vigorous wave that gets going too late, no phasing where we need it then sweeps OTS. Cold high pushes out faster and we are left with screaming E-SE flow aloft which even in a strong CAA setup would make things tough. Marginal setup such as this nails the coffin shut. I-95, cities all rain, few flakes to start. You will have to go well west and north for anything substantial...I-81, 15, 68, north of 70 to the M/D line. Perhaps advisory level to IAD, but mix to rain even there. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I thought the 6z op run was ok but the eps was kinda ugly. A LOT of inside runners that track the low pretty far up the bay before the turn east. This was the first ensemble run where I cringed when I looked at the slp plots. Not trying to be a weenie (just comes naturally) but don't the ops carry more weight than the ensembles at this range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I suspect we have been tracking this potential for way too long now. I agree. It’s not even fun. Im gonna ride the euro the rest of the way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 hours ago, H2O said: First, last, third, its all for fun call I’m so close to cool 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: One thing that isn’t being mentioned is how the gfs seems to get a little bit drier each run 12z today for 18z thurs 24 hour precip, versus 00z last night for same time. I see a different spatial distribution especially comparing north of M/D to south. I like being centered just outside DC in that 1.5 inch zone..prob is its looking increasingly liek a chunk of that will be rain/sleet :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 When is the inevitable crushing run right before the show starts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 11 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Can someone smart explain the lp difference here? Seems to be in a more realistic spot given the GEFS support. Won't claim to be smart (hahaha!). But just eyeballing that, the difference appears to be subtle. Notice at 06Z, there is a western low center right along the Delmarva and another one to the east. The "eastern" one looks stronger (1000 mb), maybe the GFS keyed more on that at that time? At 12Z, the same thing...a "western" and "eastern" center. But in that case, the western center is stronger...in fact quite a bit stronger (992 mb), and the eastern low is farther out and weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: Not much left to go on with this one. Euro will come in line with the other guidance. 500 pattern is another clue...a few days ago it showed the H5 low closing off and deepening coming across, now it’s just a progressive vigorous wave that gets going too late, no phasing where we need it then sweeps OTS. Cold high pushes out faster and we are left with screaming E-SE flow aloft which even in a strong CAA setup would make things tough. Marginal setup such as this nails the coffin shut. I-95, cities all rain, few flakes to start. You will have to go well west and north for anything substantial...I-81, 15, 68, north of 70 to the M/D line. Perhaps advisory level to IAD, but mix to rain even there. No snow on the backside? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I mentioned it at 18z yesterday. I was told the models still had enough precip to support December 2009 totals across the land. LOL you mentioned it again at 00z. was noticeable then too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: Not much left to go on with this one. Euro will come in line with the other guidance. 500 pattern is another clue...a few days ago it showed the H5 low closing off and deepening coming across, now it’s just a progressive vigorous wave that gets going too late, no phasing where we need it then sweeps OTS. Cold high pushes out faster and we are left with screaming E-SE flow aloft which even in a strong CAA setup would make things tough. Marginal setup such as this nails the coffin shut. I-95, cities all rain, few flakes to start. You will have to go well west and north for anything substantial...I-81, 15, 68, north of 70 to the M/D line. Perhaps advisory level to IAD, but mix to rain even there. damn dude that's harsh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, chris21 said: No snow on the backside? Wet snow with temps in the mid 30s, hardly much to get excited about if you are not in those favored areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Ok so I didn’t notice it but if you go back 48 hours it’s really noticeable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, mappy said: you mentioned it again at 00z. was noticeable then too This feels like a very sloppy 4-10 across the area kind of thing to me. A pretty classic event for the region, actually. We don't get these types of standard-issue events much anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, chris21 said: No snow on the backside? We're no good at analfront snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: This feels like a very sloppy 4-10 across the area kind of thing to me. A pretty classic event for the region, actually. We don't get these types of standard-issue events much anymore. didnt you give me shit a few days ago about being worried about mixing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: damn dude that's harsh Could see 3-6/4-8 for Leesburg but no way are we seeing 12-18 digital fantasy. Take it, D.C. gets C-1 then heavy rain with temps in the 40s. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I honestly just want to be able to slant 4-6 in the grass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: Could see 3-6/4-8 for Leesburg but no way are we seeing 12-18 digital fantasy. Take it, D.C. gets C-1 then heavy rain with temps in the 40s. Ji will be crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, jayyy said: Believe it was around Christmas 2005. A cold driving rain turned over to 6+“ of heavy snow in a 8-10 hour window. Not sure I’ve seen a storm where 850s crashed as quickly as with that storm. A classic no doubt! Christmas 2002. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, mappy said: didnt you give me shit a few days ago about being worried about mixing? You will get the lollis to 10-12 up there. No mixing. Just lack of precip. I said a few days ago these monster rate events often seem to fizzle and those with good temps waste hours getting spitting snow while those getting yellow-banded are at 35 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I’ll wait for one more Euro run before I press.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: damn dude that's harsh Its reality. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Scraff said: I’ll wait for one more Euro run before I press.... Same. Still time for some minor adjustments that would make a big difference for us in terms of what we get, but the writing may be on the wall. The fat lady is possibly warming up her voice. This would be a fitting finish for 2020 to have the rug pulled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 CMC running a tight line right down I-95. Temps in the cities are just below freezing with heavy precip. Could be a sleet bomb in the making. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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