Interstate Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, mappy said: goodness can we let the damn thing run before saying it sucks? It is not nearly as good as the 6z... you could see that early on the H5 maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I think we all win somewhat in that run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, mappy said: goodness can we let the damn thing run before saying it sucks? Silly @mappy - You really think people here can be rational? Big reason I just stay quiet during most model run style threads - I know I'll read something wrong...I'll stick to spamming the forum during severe season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Would have to see temp panels but really surprise it starts as rain for a bunch of us. The low is tucked in more than last run, but it's still off the coast. That's a fine position for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: To those of you that said CAD tends to be under-modeled, let this be a lesson. Yeah but that's not exactly of importance here. That works for Arctic airmasses with a guaranteed front end thump (President's Day 2016, Feb 21 2015 for example). Those were cold temp days with dews in the single digits for most before precip. Here we have an iffy airmass (albeit pretty good for December standards), and precip is running alongside temps. By the time precip is on our doorstep, we're already close to changeover regardless of CAD or not. If we had a mid-winter airmass with precip going directly under us then yeah I'd side with the CAD argument, but that doesn't matter here it seems 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Interstate said: It is not nearly as good as the 6z... you could see that early on the H5 maps. i still get snow. so works for me. some of yall need to have realistic expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Boooo.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: To those of you that said CAD tends to be under-modeled, let this be a lesson. Not sure you can make declaration until aftwrward...we're still 48-72 hours away from seeing what actually happens. And just because something has a TENDENCY, doesn't mean it happens 100% of the time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Can someone smart explain the lp difference here? Seems to be in a more realistic spot given the GEFS support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, mappy said: i still get snow. so works for me. some of yall need to have realistic expectations. Yep but a couple more moves like that and you won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, mappy said: i still get snow. so works for me. some of yall need to have realistic expectations. You'll get some snow on top of some slushy puddles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Good point. The problem, though, is that it really comes together so late that we don't get a huge benefit from it sliding to our S anyway. Without the 850 low cranking up earlier, we are just awash in warm air advection. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Interstate said: Yep but a couple more moves like that and you won't. Just now, DCAlexandria said: You'll get some snow on top of some slushy puddles thanks guys, what would i do without your expert analysis. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Cobalt said: Can someone smart explain the lp difference here? Seems to be in a more realistic spot given the GEFS support. I don’t know if anyone noticed but the low is also 8mb stronger, so that wouldn’t hurt us here at that latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, MN Transplant said: The problem, though, is that it really comes together so late that we don't get a huge benefit from it sliding to our S anyway. Without the 850 low cranking up earlier, we are just awash in warm air advection. Those SE winds are pretty brutal. I'd just like to get the grass covered with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, IronTy said: Boooo.... Personally, I’d lock that the F up in a heartbeat.. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Can someone smart explain the lp difference here? Seems to be in a more realistic spot given the GEFS support. The 12Z is about 75 miles to the west of the 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Solutions converging on the NAM from yesterday? I thought it was a POS? 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, 40westwx said: The 12Z is about 75 miles to the west of the 6Z Also about 8mb stronger than the 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 9 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: To those of you that said CAD tends to be under-modeled, let this be a lesson. How about we wait before you bless us with lessons. And CAD doesn’t usually apply in situations where lows run the Piedmont 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 hour ago, BlizzardNole said: Sorry IronTy -- I grew up a few miles south of Dunkirk and know all about southern MD heartbreak. Once my job locked in DC I started shopping for a NW area. My family is still all there and they have fun with me when southern MD gets a big hit that I miss. I'm looking to buy about 100ac in Garrett county and build a small log cabin on it in the next 3-4 years. Once that happens I'll be heading up there in my NSX two days before every snow and then be stuck there for days waiting for the snow to clear before I can make it back home to the tropics in Calvert. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, Scraff said: Personally, I’d lock that the F up in a heartbeat.. Right? 15”? Sign me up lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Relying on a "heavy rain to CCB snows as the low departs" scenario is likely to be a heartbreaker. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 So.. What should we be looking for to see it trend better? Better 50/50? Closes off 850 sooner? Further south track? All the above? This thing is bleeding westward at an alarming rate since yesterday. We have had some glimpses of hope in an otherwise telltale sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 i want snow please 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: Relying on a "heavy rain to CCB snows as the low departs" scenario is likely to be a heartbreaker. That worked out for me once for that cold storm back in like 2005. Other than that it never seems to materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Hoping for a good 50-75 mile jog east for my friends down in Baltimore and dc! Rooting for you guys! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 One thing that isn’t being mentioned is how the gfs seems to get a little bit drier each run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: So.. What should we be looking for to see it trend better? Better 50/50? Closes off 850 sooner? Further south track? All the above? This thing is bleeding westward at an alarming rate since yesterday. We have had some glimpses of hope in an otherwise telltale sign. Couple more runs and the low will be over the chesapeake. Will that at least make the rain more wind driven? Maybe we can at least lose power to make it a bit more exciting. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I suspect we have been tracking this potential for way too long now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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