BlizzardNole Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Montgomery County Exec proposing new restriction to go into effect Tuesday at 5 p.m. if approved limiting retail store capacity to 150 total. There could be BIG lines for grocery stores that night! Man I can't wait for this afternoon's Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: actually its very encourgaging because it made a big shift to the right from 6z Might be out by Bermuda by tomorrow's 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Dabuckeyes said: Should be planning lessons, but killing time before my next class instead Waiting for the models that aren't retired. #bored Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, Dabuckeyes said: The usual caveats with a NAM at 57, but it is slightly colder at the surface in the cities this run. Low is still in the same general area as last few runs. the coastal is developing in a good spot on the nam, but it's moving due north whereas the gfs is off the coast. assuming the off the coast idea is correct, i would think the nam adjusts further se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: 3k tracks the low west of Norfolk too. Problem is that the 850 low runs north of DC. There is a realistic potential that areas inside the DC Beltway get non-accumulating snow on the front end and miss the deformation on the back end. Trace is absolutely in play. Looking forward to your obs, seriously. They always make me feel glad about where I live. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 This storm has bust written all over it. Heck I probably won't even get an inch of rain. Wood frogs were calling yesterday at my house, they think it's March already. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, IronTy said: This storm has bust written all over it. Heck I probably won't even get an inch of rain. Wood frogs were calling yesterday at my house, they think it's March already. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff B Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Not so much west as north. It depends where the low sets up. Pretty good agreement from the euro/gfs that is gonna be Front Royal and north. I know the guys to the east want the low further east. But for us a track over Norfolk is ideal. OMG, I’m finally a cool kid! Waited forever for this!Great map, CL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, IronTy said: This storm has bust written all over it. Heck I probably won't even get an inch of rain. Wood frogs were calling yesterday at my house, they think it's March already. Sorry IronTy -- I grew up a few miles south of Dunkirk and know all about southern MD heartbreak. Once my job locked in DC I started shopping for a NW area. My family is still all there and they have fun with me when southern MD gets a big hit that I miss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Weenie rule #347 - wait for the current torrential rain storm to clear the area before the models have a good grasp on the next storm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Filled out a couple more squares. Might’ve missed an Eskimo Joe “meh.” 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I thought the H5 was a huge improvement on the 12z NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Filled out a couple more squares. Might’ve missed an Eskimo Joe “meh.” Someone earlier referenced needing a Jan 2000-like miracle...... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 just reading this thread...i cant believe how many people live inside the beltway 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Someone earlier referenced needing a Jan 2000-like miracle......Updated. I’m also gonna say that we’ve hit the “it never snows in December” line. People have been tip-toeing around it but there has been plenty of the “this is bonus snow” discussion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Ji said: just reading this thread...i cant believe how many people live inside the beltway "i can't believe how many people live in the most densely populated center of our entire region" 3 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 One of the experts a couple of days ago said the algorithms will have trouble distinguishing between mix/ snow when there is intense precipitation and marginal temps. WB NAM may have that issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ji said: just reading this thread...i cant believe how many people live inside the beltway Which Beltway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Filled out a couple more squares. Might’ve missed an Eskimo Joe “meh.” Wait...when was there a reference to the DGEX for this event??? Don't recall that offhand...fortunately!! Oh, and by the way, I think the NAM is just where we want it at this range, it's showing a slight improvement! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 15 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Weenie rule #347 - wait for the current torrential rain storm to clear the area before the models have a good grasp on the next storm. Now I am legit wondering about that and the whole 50/50 thing...now does the 50/50 influence track too? Or just temperatures? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 hour ago, mappy said: she doesn't live in a warm part of the subforum, she's out west in WVA. Which was her point. Many forget that we have members who live in WVA Or who live at higher elevations in western VA, like me. I agree with her that I am not ready to give up on this storm when the GFS and Euro still paste me with 13"+. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Now I am legit wondering about that and the whole 50/50 thing...now does the 50/50 influence track too? Or just temperatures? The 50/50 affects the confluence above/ahead of the storm, so, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 PBP Icon confluence a bit better @ 21h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: Or who live at higher elevations in western VA, like me. I agree with her that I am not ready to give up on this storm when the GFS and Euro still paste me with 13"+. Although only in the 5-10 range on the models, me neither lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, EastCoast NPZ said: The 50/50 affects the confluence above/ahead of the storm, so, yes. Okay....so if that were stronger...would it somehow prevent the low from getting as "tucked in" as we've been seeing? (just trying to visualize this here, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Not to jinx this, but I don't recall an instance where we truly got a major storm (12"+) out here and DC got next to zilch. As depicted, such a sharp cutoff seems not likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Okay....so if that were stronger...would it somehow prevent the low from getting as "tucked in" as we've been seeing? (just trying to visualize this here, lol) It would allow for better thermals at least that’s part of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Now I am legit wondering about that and the whole 50/50 thing...now does the 50/50 influence track too? Or just temperatures? Nothing with this storm is set in stone. This is a factor, but like others have noted there are lots of factors coming together. Well maybe the MOCO death band is set in stone lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Icon is NW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 A lot of wishcasting going on in here. If the NAM showed a mauling for the area you would all accept it, but because it is not, it’s out of its wheel house and should be tossed. No, it should not be tossed! It is giving you hints as to the evolution of the pattern. For one, the airmass regardless of the High setup is marginal at best! It is a CAD but not impressive and not Insitu. The low track is not ideal. This has been screaming fast changeover for the cities for days and even the immediate suburbs will mix or changeover. This is an I-81 to 68, 15 from northern Loudoun to the PA border, north of I-70 heavy snow event. Rest of us from west to east mix and even go to rain closer in toward Fairfax. Writing has been on the wall for three days. 11 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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