clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, Zde4 said: Alright, big snow fan since middle school...moved up to upstate NY 3 years ago for grad school and have been consistently disappointed with the Ithaca/lower Finger Lakes region. Considering coming home to ride out this storm as a last “hooray” before I start my job in January. As much as I hate “what’s-happening-in-my-back-yard” posts, if I’m around the red dot, slightly north and west of york, I should be a lock for at least 15 right? It’s almost a 4 hour drive down and I need like at least an 85% chance to take the risk and time. How much for Philly? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zde4 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, wxtrix said: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/10-upstate-new-yorkpennsylvania/ Why would I go there? They don’t even seem to have a storm thread? I hate upstate NY!You all think it’s so great but it’s the worst (unless you’re in Syracuse). I’d even take my chances in Annapolis before Ithaca! Moving to philly in a couple weeks and I’ll gladly switch teams then LMAO. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Not so much west as north. It depends where the low sets up. Pretty good agreement from the euro/gfs that is gonna be Front Royal and north. I know the guys to the east want the low further east. But for us a track over Norfolk is ideal. Been thinking the same thing....That tucked look and location is our benchmark. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 10 minutes ago, H2O said: First, last, third, its all for fun call Woohoo! I'm in the "assload" zone! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, WxUSAF said: Woohoo! I'm in the "assload" zone! Softball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Woohoo! I'm in the "assload" zone! Careful, toilet paper is a hot commodity 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Yes its the NAM, but through 36 it has some better confluence and heights along the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: Yes its the NAM, but through 36 it has some better confluence and heights along the east coast. Finally, some weather talk and not useless banter with phrases like "Deal with it" or "move forums" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Yes its the NAM, but through 36 it has some better confluence and heights along the east coast. Now am I being weenish for still putting a little hope in this coming in colder than expected...or is that still on the table? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: Yes its the NAM, but through 36 it has some better confluence and heights along the east coast. your pbp could save the board, ell pee aught eight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Now am I being weenish for still putting a little hope in this coming in colder than expected...or is that still on the table? Maybe but I'll take it. Really just need a bump of 20 miles to the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdcrob Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 What happened to the amateur weather guy who cut his teeth on micro-local weather in Colorado for skiing purposes and actually knows what he's talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 NWS take looks pretty good to my eyes 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, wxtrix said: he’s taking the NAM seriously when it’s out of useful range. Not what he implied at all "Yeah it's the NAM, but." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 9 minutes ago, LP08 said: Yes its the NAM, but through 36 it has some better confluence and heights along the east coast. Yeah also looks maybe a bit cooler at 850 but a tad warmer at the surface. If it makes any noticeable SE tick I'll be feeling much better though, really just want to see the path. Anything to suggest the Euro and CMC will cave to the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 WB 12Z NAM 925 MB slightly cooler at 1pm Wed. Compared to 6Z 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 24 minutes ago, GATECH said: The city dwellers should be in the Southeast forum, Our climate is now equal to Atlanta’s from 20yrs ago right!? here right in the city, we still have bugs flying around etc. barely been below freezing. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just ignore the 12k and wait for the 3k to get into range. It’s a better performer. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 The usual caveats with a NAM at 57, but it is slightly colder at the surface in the cities this run. Low is still in the same general area as last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: here right in the city, we still have bugs flying around etc. barely been below freezing. Sun begins to set later this week so we have to deal with sun angle! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Dabuckeyes said: The usual caveats with a NAM at 57, but it is slightly colder at the surface in the cities this run. Low is still in the same general area as last few runs. the NAM used to run to 48 hours probably for a reason 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 WB 12Z NAM 7pm Wed. Also cooler compared to 6Z. And falls SE of DC by 10 pm 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: the NAM used to run to 48 hours probably for a reason Yeah, this map is just a disaster for too many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: the NAM used to run to 48 hours probably for a reason The 12K NAM was replaced by the 3k NAM several years ago for a reason. The 3k is probably worth looking at starting with tomorrow's 12z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 12km, so not as useful as the incoming 3km, but the run was better. Low is still too far NW but not running up the bay like in 06z. Snow totals still bad. Looks like mostly sleet in the totals on tropical tidbits. But a tick in the right direction, even for a less useful model is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Why do people still look at the model that is supposed to be retired? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Ha, the temps looked much better on the NAM, and then the simulated radar was a dumpster fire. Didn't really seem to line up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Just ignore the 12k and wait for the 3k to get into range. It’s a better performer. 3k tracks the low west of Norfolk too. 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z NAM 7pm Wed. Also cooler compared to 6Z. And falls SE of DC by 10 pm Problem is that the 850 low runs north of DC. There is a realistic potential that areas inside the DC Beltway get non-accumulating snow on the front end and miss the deformation on the back end. Trace is absolutely in play. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Quasievil said: Yeah, this map is just a disaster for too many. actually its very encourgaging because it made a big shift to the right from 6z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Why do people still look at the model that is supposed to be retired? Should be planning lessons, but killing time before my next class instead 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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