Heisy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I’d be very careful with the GFS. Not that I’m trying to be a Debbie downer, but almost always its surface reflection lags behind the upper levels. Still I think the answer lies somewhere in between guidance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: If anyone is interested, I wrote a book earlier this evening on my thoughts. Feel free to critique. Thanks! great writeup as usual, just need to tweak in the end that the deform band will make it east to my area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, mappy said: great writeup as usual, just need to tweak in the end that the deform band will make it east to my area I'm trying! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: If anyone is interested, I wrote a book earlier this evening on my thoughts. Feel free to critique. Thanks! Hey bud, love your posts. I went to Cal U met program. I remember you posting back in the mid 2000s lol... I’m going to be chasing this storm out of philly. I wanna get a few spots picked out. Once you get up into PA you think I should head up NE towards that corner of the state or more westward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, MillvilleWx said: I'm trying! Ha! I kid, of course. Should be a good event up here, even if some warm air sneaks in. Going to enjoy whatever I get. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: Hey bud, love your posts. I went to Cal U met program. I remember you posting back in the mid 2000s lol... I’m going to be chasing this storm out of philly. I wanna get a few spots picked out. Once you get up into PA you think I should head up NE towards that corner of the state or more westward? You mean mid 2010's? Mid 2000's I was in HS still being a weenie and learning everything while I stalked Accuweather Forums lol. If I had to pick a spot, right now in PA, I'd head to York county in the hills between HBG and THV. There's routes over to I-81 area too. Someone there will clean up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: If anyone is interested, I wrote a book earlier this evening on my thoughts. Feel free to critique. Thanks! That was pretty awesome thanks for taking the time to share! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, mappy said: Ha! I kid, of course. Should be a good event up here, even if some warm air sneaks in. Going to enjoy whatever I get. It's gonna be a fun storm to watch. Wish I was back home for it, but I'll get mine in due time. I'm working on getting back to the homeland in time. I just need to convince someone gullible enough at Sterling to accept me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, MillvilleWx said: You mean mid 2010's? Mid 2000's I was in HS still being a weenie and learning everything while I stalked Accuweather Forums lol. If I had to pick a spot, right now in PA, I'd head to York county in the hills between HBG and THV. There's routes over to I-81 area too. Someone there will clean up Haha maybe. The years kind of blend together. It might have been another Millville username who knows. Thanks man. I personally think center city philly ends up with around 5-6” NE 6-8”. Excited for a semi local chase though! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zde4 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: You mean mid 2010's? Mid 2000's I was in HS still being a weenie and learning everything while I stalked Accuweather Forums lol. If I had to pick a spot, right now in PA, I'd head to York county in the hills between HBG and THV. There's routes over to I-81 area too. Someone there will clean up Heading home to dover, pa (from upstate NY). That looks to be a good spot for snow-chasing I think! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: my best guess Quoting this again because I think it's a great map based on what we've seen from the models so far. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: 6Z GEFS mean low locations does not support NAM. I know it's December, but how is there is a fresh cold air mass with a fairly strong high and those low locations and a concern of mix or rain still and surface temps above freezing? Those low locations are perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 FWIW, Ava's snow map this morning. She added 12+ from Tony's yesterday 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 41 minutes ago, yoda said: They are 6 hour time period maps... not total event snowfall maps I understand that, Yoda. The first 6 is 1-2", the next 12 hours per THAT map is 1" or less. That is the shading I am in. Please understand I know my own damn climo My temps will be above freezing for most of the event. I'm not piling up snow during the daytime under THAT forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 06z RGEM... good move SE with the snow accums compared to 00z Oh wow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 That says 1-2" for me. Tops. Oh well. Time to look for the next oneHm says January will be fun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I like seeing the return of “Snow, heavy at times” back in the point and click. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 59 minutes ago, H2O said: That says 1-2" for me. Tops. Oh well. Time to look for the next one Those are six hour snow amounts. Would be a total of 3-6 inches for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, H2O said: That says 1-2" for me. Tops. Oh well. Time to look for the next one Hm says January will be fun Great. Can't wait for you to bitch about a model run that takes you from 16" to 12" while I can't even get 4. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, chris21 said: Those are six hour snow amounts. Would be a total of 3-6 inches for you. Sigh. Ok. So for all that don't know where I live I am just under the bottom of the beltway in VA about 6 pixels from the Potomac river. I am initially in the 1-2" 6hr panel. Then from that point on its the very first shading which is 0-1" So when that first 1-2" falls I will flip to sleet and rain. My storm total on the ground won't be 3-6". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, H2O said: Great. Can't wait for you to bitch about a model run that takes you from 16" to 12" while I can't even get 4. ...you ok? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, mappy said: ...you ok? I’m definitely not one to defend @H2O but it has to be extremely annoying and frustrating when people think they know your climate better than you and on top of it a large majority of the forum gets a lot more snow than you. I would be cranky as hell. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, mappy said: ...you ok? I'm good. Promise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 hour ago, mappy said: well its three sets of maps over three time periods for example, my backyard: 7am - 1pm: < 1 1pm - 7pm: 6-8 7pm to 1am: 4-6 and then more should fall after that this is an incendiary post.. you should be more sensitive to those south of you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Let’s be honest here. It’s basically one poster. One that would complain if the forecasted totals went from 60” to 58” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Seeing the 06z euro is “nam like” on phillywx. I’m guessing that’s not good for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Wow, to the tight Northern Delaware gradient. Dover to Greenville Delaware night and day! 0 to 12 inch over ridiculous short distance. Sweating it here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 This will be a dec 5 2009 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 8 minutes ago, 40westwx said: this is an incendiary post.. you should be more sensitive to those south of you nah. im not going to apologize for the snow i get. move north if you don't like your climo. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, frd said: Wow, to the tight Northern Delaware gradient. Dover to Greenville Delaware night and day! 0 to 12 inch over ridiculous short distance. Sweating it here. That gradient is absolutely brutal. Gives me 1". This had better not be a sign of how this winter season will go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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