psuhoffman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 @PhineasC not saying your wrong but the QPF didn’t actually match those crazy model output. I know the coop a couple miles from here recorded 19” in that 2009 Storm but on only 1.26”qpf. We actually had pretty good ratios in most of MD in those storms due to beautifully perfect mid and upper level low passes. ETA: BWI had 18” on 1.57qpf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Fwiw, nws snowfall map as of 00z to 00z Thursday, more would fall after this 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 14 minutes ago, WVclimo said: I measured 18.8” in Dec ‘09 here (which would make it the largest Dec snowfall on record for this area.) That storm, iirc, was moving slower than this one should, and had a moisture connection from the deep tropics. And may have been moving into a colder air mass if I’m not mistaken. Keeping expectations in check for Wednesday. Yes. 09 was definitely colder. But it appears this one is going to have plenty of juice to work with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 11 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I wouldn't expect a HECS from this. The 2009-2010 storms all had massive moisture feeds. The models were printing out 2-2.5"+ as snow across a large area at this range. Not seeing that here. Snow maps aside, the raw liquid totals just aren't there for the widespread 20"+ totals. I dont know man. The models are saying 1.5 to 2.25 QPF with this one. That is enough for 20 inches with the right ratios. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @PhineasC not saying your wrong but the QPF didn’t actually match those crazy model output. I know the coop a couple miles from here recorded 19” in that 2009 Storm but on only 1.26”qpf. We actually had pretty good ratios in most of MD in those storms due to beautifully perfect mid and upper level low passes. I feel like there is still a wet bias with these models usually. So in order to get 20" across the area, I would expect to see 2.5" liquid being painted across the area widely. I am seeing a much narrower stripe and lower totals this time. That's all I'm saying. It isn't the firehose that 2009 was. Someone could do OK with banding and the like, but the 2009 and 2010 events just brute-forced their way to big totals across a very large area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 28 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Well baltimore city peeps @nw baltimore wx and @North Balti Zen...here we are again literally with line running right through our respective neighborhoods...think we crack the 5" mark for the first time since 2016? I’m hoping to break 5”, and I’ll be disappointed if I don’t. I think most areas well west of the bay will ultimately score over 5” as a result of the modeled backside, but it kind of sucks to depend on that. 16 minutes ago, Fozz said: I think he’s just outside the city line. But yes that area is 350’+ and easily on the colder side of the fall line. Helps a lot in marginal situations. 21 minutes ago, ravensrule said: @nw baltimore wx doesn’t live in the city and almost always does better than you. Pikesville is a much better spot than where you live. Yeah, Pikesville is pretty much at the highest elevation of the beltway at just over 500’. I’m at about 490’, and it definitely helps, but I still mix with sleet at times. Maybe because I’m so close to the city. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 hour ago, Amped said: Looks close to the 12z Euro in most places Your prediction that the Euro would trend to the Canadian aged well 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 21 minutes ago, WVclimo said: I measured 18.8” in Dec ‘09 here (which would make it the largest Dec snowfall on record for this area.) That storm, iirc, was moving slower than this one should, and had a moisture connection from the deep tropics. And may have been moving into a colder air mass if I’m not mistaken. Keeping expectations in check for Wednesday. All of those are true 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 To my untrained eye, 18z Euro showed more REAL snow on those clown maps. Noticeably colder that run. In a lot of ways. Let's keep that trend up as we reel this baby home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 30 minutes ago, nj2va said: You/Winchester/Smithburg/Hagerstown/Westminster are going to bullseye I think. Depending on where the banding sets up, I could see a chance for very localized reports of 2 feet. I'm thinking I'm in a prime spot here in Smithsburg . About 3 miles from the PA border. If I'm not too far west to get into the CCB I'm thinking I may make a run at 20" but still a long way too go. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 The one thing to hang your hat on as far as precip amounts is the insane consistency of this storm track for seemingly months on end and their proclivity to be prodigious precip producers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Chris78 said: I'm thinking I'm in a prime spot here in Smithsburg . About 3 miles from the PA border. If I'm not too far west to get into the CCB I'm thinking I may make a run at 20" but still a long way too go. Elevation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, HighStakes said: Elevation? About 750 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, HighStakes said: Elevation? I'm about 8 miles to the east of Hagerstown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Your prediction that the Euro would trend to the Canadian aged well Not what I said. I pointed out a trend on the GGEM. I also pointed out that the GFS's should be tossed because it was turning the storm OTS faster than any other mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 18z EPS has the surface low in exactly the canonical spot, ~50mi off OCMD, at 6z Thursday. Don't overthink things. Use the ensembles the way they're supposed to be used for, not agonizing over 5-10mi wiggles in 10:1 snow maps. Going forward now, we can start seeing mesoscale effects like thermal profiles and banding. After 6z Thursday it really doesn't gain much more latitude. Just moves ENE out to sea. That's very nice for us. Better chance the CCB cranks overhead and then snows itself out as the storm moves away. Some of the runs where the CCB is much farther north into the Poconos and NY state had the storm moving toward the benchmark and farther NE. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: About 750 Just now, Chris78 said: I'm about 8 miles to the east of Hagerstown That's not too bad for a valley. Much better than the Frederick valley. You are in a good spot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, HighStakes said: That's not too bad for a valley. Much better than the Frederick valley. You are in a good spot. When I worked In Frederick alot of times there was a huge difference between Frederick and home. Ussually we are 3 to 5 degrees cooler than Frederick and an extra 400 to 500 ft in elevation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 NWS indicated NOAA plane would be doing synoptic flights for the storm. Will that data be in 0z or is this for tomorrow sometime? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 @WinterWxLuvr Here is the link to that thread in the NYC forum. The 3 hour pressure change map is in there I think. Also for everyone else this is a good thread to bookmark for storms: Actually. Disregard this. It appears most of the maps are no longer active in this thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: toward the benchmark Please excuse the novice question, but what is "the benchmark"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, cbmclean said: Please excuse the novice question, but what is "the benchmark"? 40N and 70W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Please excuse the novice question, but what is "the benchmark"? https://nyskiblog.com/directory/weather-data/northeast-us/40-70-benchmark-map/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 15 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The one thing to hang your hat on as far as precip amounts is the insane consistency of this storm track for seemingly months on end and their proclivity to be prodigious precip producers I was looking at that earlier today, reviewing my Cocorahs reports. Roughly every two weeks we have had a wet event: 9/30- 1.44” 10/12- 1.28” 10/29- 1.49” 11/12- 1.32” 11/30- 1.15” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 49 minutes ago, Fozz said: I think he’s just outside the city line. But yes that area is 350’+ and easily on the colder side of the fall line. Helps a lot in marginal situations. I am near Mt. washington neighborhood - some elevation here - close enough to NW's hood that he and I tend to have close to the same obs. I am glad in a set-up like this I am not over closer to 95. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: When I worked In Frederick alot of times there was a huge difference between Frederick and home. Ussually we are 3 to 5 degrees cooler than Frederick and an extra 400 to 500 ft in elevation. I sit in a valley here at approximately 860-870ft. My parents live about 1.5 miles south of me on top of a ridge at roughly 1100ft. PSU lives directly behind me on the top of the Doug Hill ridge over 1000 ft. up literally a stones throw away. There's 1 more ridge about 1.5 miles north of my house that gets up as high as 1130ft. Sometimes in marginal ice situations my trees are just wet but I can look up on PSU' s ridge and see the trees are iced over. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Mt Washington is probably the best spot in the city . 300'? My old hood was like 100' in ne Bmore Now I live near Good Sam, Morgan State...what if any elevation is that? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 13 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Please excuse the novice question, but what is "the benchmark"? 40N/70W is the classic location from the KU book for major east coast snow storms. That's past our latitude, but when it's at the benchmark a storm is usually about to hit NYC and Boston. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 16 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: @WinterWxLuvr Here is the link to that thread in the NYC forum. The 3 hour pressure change map is in there I think. Also for everyone else this is a good thread to bookmark for storms: Actually. Disregard this. It appears most of the maps are no longer active in this thread. I can’t figure out how to use it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Now I live near Good Sam, Morgan State...what if any elevation is that? Lol What also hurts you is that your on the East side of town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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