Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On 12/13/2020 at 10:33 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Fixed it for ya pops Expand LOL!!! Well, this helps too...beer goggles for snow! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On 12/13/2020 at 10:32 PM, JakkelWx said: 18z GEFS mean snowfall 10:1 ratio to 114 hours out Expand The 18z GEFS snowfall mean looks almost exactly like the op. A bit better actually. I would post it but I hate snow maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Watching the eagles game so focus is elsewhere. But SOLID gfs run. Hoping this holds! Gfs has been pretty steady along with the euro. Not trending badly at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On 12/13/2020 at 10:36 PM, CAPE said: The 18z GEFS snowfall mean looks almost exactly like the op. A bit better actually. I would post it but I hate snow maps. Expand As you near an event, the OP and ENS will not diverge as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On 12/13/2020 at 10:32 PM, JakkelWx said: 18z GEFS mean snowfall 10:1 ratio to 114 hours out Expand Love me some maps with no legend 3 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On 12/13/2020 at 10:34 PM, poolz1 said: WPC thru 0z thurs.. 4" 8" Expand That’s big for this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On 12/13/2020 at 10:42 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: That’s big for this far out Expand It also doesn’t include the potential heaviest snow from 0z-6z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Since most are reading here ... is there a site that does the three hour pressure change like the old Unisys site? Really miss those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On 12/13/2020 at 10:43 PM, Baltimorewx said: It also doesn’t include the potential heaviest snow from 0z-6z Expand Yessir. And even if it did, they usually won’t go really big at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On 12/13/2020 at 10:41 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Love me some maps with no legend Expand They are the best. You can make the colors whatever amounts you want. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On 12/13/2020 at 10:40 PM, Eskimo Joe said: As you near an event, the OP and ENS will not diverge as much. Expand Yeah that's the general idea lol. At this range we can still see some differences, but going forward the op runs are where it's at. Probably around this time tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On 12/13/2020 at 10:41 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Love me some maps with no legend Expand The blues are the most and it goes to 0” in the pink/purples 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On 12/13/2020 at 10:41 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Love me some maps with no legend Expand The pink is 12 feet or more 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On 12/13/2020 at 10:46 PM, H2O said: The blues are the most and it goes to 0” in the pink/purples Expand Yep that’s what I was thinking. Of course each one of those stupid shades could be a six inch contour so we could be looking at a range of 0 to 1000”. Who knows. That’s why I love them so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On 12/13/2020 at 10:40 PM, Eskimo Joe said: As you near an event, the OP and ENS will not diverge as much. Expand On 12/13/2020 at 10:45 PM, CAPE said: Yeah that's the general idea lol. At this range we can still see some differences, but going forward the op runs are where it's at. Probably around this time tomorrow. Expand That's kind of what I was thinking. Maybe continue giving ensembles weight up to say, nearly 48 hours before the event (so sometime tomorrow for this event). Then almost exclusively deterministic thereafter. At least that's what I've gotten from what most have said over the past couple of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On 12/13/2020 at 10:49 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Yep that’s what I was thinking. Of course each one of those stupid shades could be a six inch contour so we could be looking at a range of 0 to 1000”. Who knows. That’s why I love them so much Expand You get pummeled according to that legend-less map, and there's a hint of the @psuhoffman fringe zone in there too! (All in fun and joking, PSU, but you know that!!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On 12/13/2020 at 10:51 PM, losetoa6 said: Some big HECS hits in the Gefs mix. Even for the cities. Expand Absolutely....Trying to gauge where the upper end of this could be. I was doing a HECS count on the members when you posted this! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Man there are some nuke jobs even for the US 50 corridor on the GEFS. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On 12/13/2020 at 10:32 PM, WesternFringe said: Not where I live at over 1500' in Augusta County. I regularly get over 10:1 ETA: Also, isn't the whole point of Kuchera ratios to adjust for the thermodynamics of each particular storm, and not randomly assign higher ratios than climo would normally suggest? Expand That may be true, but unless you are measuring every six hours and melting the snow to get liquid equivalent, you have no idea what ratios you usually get. That said, if you are that informed about local climo, then you don't even need a snow map. I don't look at snow maps for my place at 1600' in Northern NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On 12/13/2020 at 10:53 PM, poolz1 said: Absolutely....Trying to gauge where the upper end of this could be. I was doing a HECS count on the members when you posted this! lol Expand p25 will do. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 GEFS pics? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On 12/13/2020 at 10:57 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: GEFS pics? Expand Ok, just this one time.. 3 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 p25. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On 12/13/2020 at 10:58 PM, CAPE said: Ok, just this one time.. Expand P25 gets a chef's kiss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On 12/13/2020 at 10:45 PM, CAPE said: Yeah that's the general idea lol. At this range we can still see some differences, but going forward the op runs are where it's at. Probably around this time tomorrow. Expand I’d say this 18Z Eps is the last run I’d weight as high as the Op. I’ve been saying 0z tonight is my benchmark and we look in tentatively good shape. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On 12/13/2020 at 10:58 PM, CAPE said: Ok, just this one time.. Expand HOLY GEFS. There are some bigggg hits in there. P25 and I’ll never be snarky to mappy ever again. Pinky swear 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I would feel pretty good if i was 20 miles west of the fall line. Pretty much a can't miss right? #faithinthegefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On 12/13/2020 at 10:05 PM, Baltimorewx said: Only a 15 mile difference between 17” and 1.5” lol. Good run but man I’m gonna be sweating here in southeast Baltimore county. I could be rain and just a few miles northwest in like Towson could be dumping. Expand I feel your pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Something tells me this is gonna trend colder over the next 48 hours of runs...but maybe it's just weenieism, lol Bur I do put a little stock in the postively familiar scenario of CAD being underdone on the modeling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On 12/13/2020 at 11:02 PM, CAPE said: I would feel pretty good if i was 20 miles west of the fall line. Pretty much a can't miss right? #faithinthegefs Expand What if, hypothetically speaking, you were like 3-5 miles from the fall line and, hypothetically, at like 375’ elevation? 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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