Baltimorewx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Only a 15 mile difference between 17” and 1.5” lol. Good run but man I’m gonna be sweating here in southeast Baltimore county. I could be rain and just a few miles northwest in like Towson could be dumping. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I am only a few miles off from seeing a foot on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Baltimorewx said: Only a 15 mile difference between 17” and 1.5” lol. Good run but man I’m gonna be sweating here in southeast Baltimore county. I could be rain and just a few miles northwest in like Towson could be dumping. Reisterstown and Upperco push 10" while Essex struggles. Classic early season event west longitude and elevation are key. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 15 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: There’s been a history of the -2 and -9C isotherm at 7H having distinct bands develop within intense cyclogenesis and was very apparent in 2016 with Baltimore to Philly clocked by the -2 and I-81 with the -9 I like when you say cyclogenesis 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Reisterstown and Upperco push 10" while Essex struggles. Classic early season event west longitude and elevation are key. Yeah being by the bay I expect to have major mixing or even rain problems for most of the day. I’m just hoping the CCB is as the GFS advertised and I get dumped on from like 02z-08z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 42 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Now what is Cobb data? Not sure if someone answered but it is a text output of hourly forecasted temps/ precip/ precip type.. I think it is the raw data from the GFS but not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Those three hour totals. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 11 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Only a 15 mile difference between 17” and 1.5” lol. Good run but man I’m gonna be sweating here in southeast Baltimore county. I could be rain and just a few miles northwest in like Towson could be dumping. you will see several inches.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Reisterstown and Upperco push 10" while Essex struggles. Classic early season event west longitude and elevation are key. No lie, when I moved here, I picked a place in the NW burbs at 500' elevation for a reason. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 @BornAgain13 you never flip to plain rain on 18z gfs and it is trying damn hard to predominantly snow up this way. Maybe some sleet mixing in at end of the storm basing it off cod website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, ErinInTheSky said: No lie, when I moved here, I picked a place in the NW burbs at 500' elevation for a reason. Same. I'm roughly 620' in Reisterstown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 Always worry about depending on the backside, but that’s how we’ll play the game. New snow depth up to 00z Thursday, and then after. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, 40westwx said: you will see several inches.. I hope but I’m not counting on it yet..I know how things go around here being by the bay lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 WB 18z GEFS 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Man, I am loving that look on the 18z GFS. Please GFS gods, give us that heavy axis here right along the fall line. I'm in Silver Spring (just east of downtown near route 29) and I'm on top of a hill at 326'. My friends in Hyattsville or Brookland DC could see significantly less than me, a few hundo feet lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 A blend of the euro/gfs is pretty decent for dc metro even inside the beltway but I’d like a little more wiggle room. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Same. I'm roughly 620' in Reisterstown. 824 here on Parr's Ridge in Westminster!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Man that is just crazy from the GEFS with banding expectancy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 22 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I am way too tired to look at stuff right now in-depth, but there isn’t much change to my previous thoughts. I may slightly move areas like Northern Carroll/Balt/Harford Counties into a more favorable position to Max potential with the system. There will likely be two monster bands that setup during this event once the trough goes negative and closes off somewhere over the Mid Atlantic. There’s been a history of the -2 and -9C isotherm at 7H having distinct bands develop within intense cyclogenesis and was very apparent in 2016 with Baltimore to Philly clocked by the -2 and I-81 with the -9. Someone I know did some research and a paper on it, so I’ll have to look more into it. In either case, deformation is where higher ratio fluff will pump totals rapidly for whoever gets them. I wouldn’t waste time on the NAM beyond Monday right now. ICON is not a model I’d put much stock in. Focus on UL progression at 5H on the GFS/CMC/ECMWF, the track of the 7H low, and frontogenic placement during Wed afternoon and evening. Also, follow the finger of + Theta-E advection. Where that points will be where the WCB and CCB meet to help form the deformation axis. There could be a sneaky TROWAL in the mix too for our NE areas that could provide an E-W enhancement for snow. The Euro was showing a little flavor of that on its run across SePA. I’m gonna watch GFS come in, but I may also fall back asleep. I’ll catch y’all tonight regardless. Fingers crossed for HH . After you get some rest, can you explain what you mean by + Theta-E advection. You have mentioned it at least in your last 2 posts, and I would love to know what it is! Thanks for analysis, as always! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 16 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: I am only a few miles off from seeing a foot on the 18z GFS. The hot pink is right on the Caroline-Queen Annes county line. Take a Jeb walk through the gradient to 10". 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I have been holding 2-7 off suit for days now... Is it time to go all-in?! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 17 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Better than 12z Throwing this out here randomly (not aimed at you, just using this plot as an example!). But damn, I never much liked these all-to-subtle color transitions, especially on the snow maps! My old(er) eyes have a hard time discerning those tight gradient transitions from the light blues to light purples, then darker purples, then pink!! LOL!! Now...get off my lawn you damn whipper-snappers, while I get my magnifying glass out!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 21 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Only a 15 mile difference between 17” and 1.5” lol. Good run but man I’m gonna be sweating here in southeast Baltimore county. I could be rain and just a few miles northwest in like Towson could be dumping. Welcome to the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 23 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: It could still be better. Depth chart https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2020121318&fh=90 I don't buy it. Other than compaction, why would this be more accurate than Kuchera when I don't come close to losing 850, 925, or 2m the entire event? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: After you get some rest, can you explain what you mean by + Theta-E advection. You have mentioned it at least in your last 2 posts, and I would love to know what it is! Thanks for analysis, as always! It is basically a measure of instability. In the context of this storm, think mesoscale banding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 hour ago, H2O said: Warm noses never care about our feelings. That hurts 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Throwing this out here randomly (not aimed at you, just using this plot as an example!). But damn, I never much liked these all-to-subtle color transitions, especially on the snow maps! My old(er) eyes have a hard time discerning those tight gradient transitions from the light blues to light purples, then darker purples, then pink!! LOL!! Now...get off my lawn you damn whipper-snappers, while I get my magnifying glass out!! The easy rule is: purple is good, whitish green is really good, and deep bluish is incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: I don't buy it. Other than compaction, why would this be more accurate than Kuchera when I don't come close to losing 850, 925, or 2m the entire event? Rates are never that good in this region. Usually 10:1 at best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: The easy rule is: purple is good, whitish is really good, and bluish is incredible. LOL yeah, I know...typically I look for where the initial lighter purple is and go from there, hahaha! The green, of course stands out most. Thanks for walking across my lawn!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 18z GEFS mean snowfall 10:1 ratio to 114 hours out 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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