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December 16/17 Winter Event


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4 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

Oh btw, there's a chance at thundersnow in this storm. Just wanted to throw that tidbit out there looking at regional soundings. Slight tilt back with weak elevated CAPE sig within the deformation axis as the storm cranks off OCMD. So....yeah

You have been a rockstar. Thank you!

3 hours ago, Ji said:
3 hours ago, yoda said:
huh?  You get 20" on the 06z GFS... stop playin

I have zero cushion bro...

You know better.  It might seem that way by acreage but you know geography and climo. There is a world of difference between seeing that shallow warm boundary layer punch up the Potomac and Bay to the fall line and seeing it penetrate another 35 miles west into the piedmont. 

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Why it is hard to get snow in December in the MA....

Latitude and proximity to a very warm body of water (relative to temps needed for snow). There is a lag effect on the temperatures during seasonal changes. A lot of this is due to waters influence. Water takes longer to gain and release heat. Some due to the PV taking time to mature. But even though solar is at a min in December the thermal profile of the northern Hemisphere won’t bottom out until sometime later in January and the Jet often becomes most favorable due to buckling and shortening wavelengths as the PV starts to wane in Feb. Our snow chances are centered in Jan and Feb. Even early March is probably better then most of Dec for a big snow. 

1 hour ago, PivotPoint said:

Could you post a map of what you’re seeing. I honestly do not see a marked difference  between the two runs. Certainly done see a 25-30 mile SE move. Thanks

What’s edging SE though? Temps at 925/850 are virtually identical. I don’t see this as an improvement 3 days out. It’s pretty consistent actually.

Again, you’re right rt15 on west is certainly the spot. I’ve felt that way as well. Unfortunately location for me is Arlington 

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This is the ugliest point also. If you look at the last two frames the low has halted it’s due north motion and turned NE at this point. It’s not earth shattering and it won’t help some.  But if you’re on the edge that shift is significant. 

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Maybe this is the first time in four years I see some benefit from moving from near the waterfront in Alexandria City at 20' to just south of Fairfax City at 420'. I think maybe not, but will be interesting to see how this changes my perspectives on a storm like this. I still may be too far south and east just above the fall line but I'm counting on surface temps to help me here. If I were in still in Old Town, this would be 2 inches of slush expected.

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Theme thus far with the 12z suite is to have confluence a little stronger. That IMO is an important takeaway. Icon and nam both show this. 
@75 Icon has low over or just to the southeast of Wilmington 

Mets are probably laughing at this model but 78 over Hatteras 81 pretty well off shore of Virginia Beach (ala reminds me of 0z GFS from last night) then the wheels fall off from there because the low becomes super jumpy and has some weird double barreled low structure south of Long Island to where I’m assuming some sort of convective feedback issues etc. 

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16 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Theme thus far with the 12z suite is to have confluence a little stronger. That IMO is an important takeaway. Icon and nam both show this. 
@75 Icon has low over or just to the southeast of Wilmington 

Mets are probably laughing at this model but 78 over Hatteras 81 pretty well off shore of Virginia Beach (ala reminds me of 0z GFS from last night) then the wheels fall off from there because the low becomes super jumpy and has some weird double barreled low structure south of Long Island to where I’m assuming some sort of convective feedback issues etc. 

So is this gonna become a battle between the CAD and the low track?...

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7 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Theme thus far with the 12z suite is to have confluence a little stronger. That IMO is an important takeaway. Icon and nam both show this. 
@75 Icon has low over or just to the southeast of Wilmington 

Mets are probably laughing at this model but 78 over Hatteras 81 pretty well off shore of Virginia Beach (ala reminds me of 0z GFS from last night) then the wheels fall off from there because the low becomes super jumpy and has some weird double barreled low structure south of Long Island to where I’m assuming some sort of convective feedback issues etc. 

We need the low to not take that north jump once around Norfolk. We need it to be more progressive and easterly/more out to sea. The rgem as well as some others show a jump north up the bay, which wrecks our mid levels. Need it more progressive. 

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

So is this gonna become a battle between the CAD and throw track?...

I think Cape nailed it perfectly. We want to root for a more progressive system rather than allow it time to amp back over the plains and lower Mississippi otherwise the low track will not appease everyone. 

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38 minutes ago, haudidoody said:

Maybe this is the first time in four years I see some benefit from moving from near the waterfront in Alexandria City at 20' to just south of Fairfax City at 420'. I think maybe not, but will be interesting to see how this changes my perspectives on a storm like this. I still may be too far south and east just above the fall line but I'm counting on surface temps to help me here. If I were in still in Old Town, this would be 2 inches of slush expected.

I'm just west of Fairfax City.  You most definitely will see more snow this year.  

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

I almost lost both my in laws to COVID last month. I just want snow.

I think a lot of us are feeling that way.  It's been a completely sucky year and Mother Nature needs to throw us a bone.  I lost my father last month, not due to COVID, and tracking a snowstorm in December is the most fun I've had for quite a while!

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