Buddy1987 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: My in-depth analysis of the hour 84 NAM is that it exists. And now we wait for the 12z GFS. Most should know nam is normally over amped anyway so you take with grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 NAM appears to come due north out of SC. I don't think I will lose sleep over that right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Most won’t like NAM’s evolution. Takes storm from Raleigh to just west of Richmond to a track about to traverse Delaware. Eastern WV near Snowshoe gets buried . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 30-40 mph wind gust accompany this driving rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Snowchaser said: Eastern WV near Snowshoe gets buried . I' Sad that model represents the United States of America lollll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Negnao said: 30-40 mph wind gust accompany this driving rain. Ice blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 The NAM at range is kinda like a EURO mini-me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Snowchaser said: Ice blizzard Doubtful it will materialize as ice. Temps low to mid 30s. More rainy than icy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: Oh btw, there's a chance at thundersnow in this storm. Just wanted to throw that tidbit out there looking at regional soundings. Slight tilt back with weak elevated CAPE sig within the deformation axis as the storm cranks off OCMD. So....yeah You have been a rockstar. Thank you! 3 hours ago, Ji said: 3 hours ago, yoda said: huh? You get 20" on the 06z GFS... stop playin I have zero cushion bro... You know better. It might seem that way by acreage but you know geography and climo. There is a world of difference between seeing that shallow warm boundary layer punch up the Potomac and Bay to the fall line and seeing it penetrate another 35 miles west into the piedmont. 3 hours ago, Weather Will said: Why it is hard to get snow in December in the MA.... Latitude and proximity to a very warm body of water (relative to temps needed for snow). There is a lag effect on the temperatures during seasonal changes. A lot of this is due to waters influence. Water takes longer to gain and release heat. Some due to the PV taking time to mature. But even though solar is at a min in December the thermal profile of the northern Hemisphere won’t bottom out until sometime later in January and the Jet often becomes most favorable due to buckling and shortening wavelengths as the PV starts to wane in Feb. Our snow chances are centered in Jan and Feb. Even early March is probably better then most of Dec for a big snow. 1 hour ago, PivotPoint said: Could you post a map of what you’re seeing. I honestly do not see a marked difference between the two runs. Certainly done see a 25-30 mile SE move. Thanks What’s edging SE though? Temps at 925/850 are virtually identical. I don’t see this as an improvement 3 days out. It’s pretty consistent actually. Again, you’re right rt15 on west is certainly the spot. I’ve felt that way as well. Unfortunately location for me is Arlington This is the ugliest point also. If you look at the last two frames the low has halted it’s due north motion and turned NE at this point. It’s not earth shattering and it won’t help some. But if you’re on the edge that shift is significant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Everyone except maybe the I81 crew should be rooting for a slightly more progressive solution. Gives us more snow with the probable added benefit of screwing SNE (sorry @WxWatcher007). 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
haudidoody Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Maybe this is the first time in four years I see some benefit from moving from near the waterfront in Alexandria City at 20' to just south of Fairfax City at 420'. I think maybe not, but will be interesting to see how this changes my perspectives on a storm like this. I still may be too far south and east just above the fall line but I'm counting on surface temps to help me here. If I were in still in Old Town, this would be 2 inches of slush expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Unpopular opinion but I loved the NAM. Its a mauling for 81 west to the mountains. As we get in closer to the event, its becoming every man/woman for themselves with rooting for the best solution for their backyard. 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Tracking this one in Germantown is fun. The margins between mix and 4” and colossal smashing 18” all cut within miles of me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 One last comp 0z v 6z EPS >6”% 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 56 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: So long as my grass is covered with frozen precip I'm good. I don’t believe you. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Theme thus far with the 12z suite is to have confluence a little stronger. That IMO is an important takeaway. Icon and nam both show this. @75 Icon has low over or just to the southeast of Wilmington Mets are probably laughing at this model but 78 over Hatteras 81 pretty well off shore of Virginia Beach (ala reminds me of 0z GFS from last night) then the wheels fall off from there because the low becomes super jumpy and has some weird double barreled low structure south of Long Island to where I’m assuming some sort of convective feedback issues etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 We need the 12z GFS ASAP. I hate seeing the back stabbing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 16 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Theme thus far with the 12z suite is to have confluence a little stronger. That IMO is an important takeaway. Icon and nam both show this. @75 Icon has low over or just to the southeast of Wilmington Mets are probably laughing at this model but 78 over Hatteras 81 pretty well off shore of Virginia Beach (ala reminds me of 0z GFS from last night) then the wheels fall off from there because the low becomes super jumpy and has some weird double barreled low structure south of Long Island to where I’m assuming some sort of convective feedback issues etc. So is this gonna become a battle between the CAD and the low track?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Rgem looks like the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Hopefully the 12z GFS ticks more SE. That would be ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Theme thus far with the 12z suite is to have confluence a little stronger. That IMO is an important takeaway. Icon and nam both show this. @75 Icon has low over or just to the southeast of Wilmington Mets are probably laughing at this model but 78 over Hatteras 81 pretty well off shore of Virginia Beach (ala reminds me of 0z GFS from last night) then the wheels fall off from there because the low becomes super jumpy and has some weird double barreled low structure south of Long Island to where I’m assuming some sort of convective feedback issues etc. We need the low to not take that north jump once around Norfolk. We need it to be more progressive and easterly/more out to sea. The rgem as well as some others show a jump north up the bay, which wrecks our mid levels. Need it more progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: So is this gonna become a battle between the CAD and throw track?... I think Cape nailed it perfectly. We want to root for a more progressive system rather than allow it time to amp back over the plains and lower Mississippi otherwise the low track will not appease everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said: Oh lord which Kirk Cousins will we get Based on the 12z mesoscale models He’s already thrown two picks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 24 minutes ago, mattie g said: I don’t believe you. I almost lost both my in laws to COVID last month. I just want snow. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 38 minutes ago, haudidoody said: Maybe this is the first time in four years I see some benefit from moving from near the waterfront in Alexandria City at 20' to just south of Fairfax City at 420'. I think maybe not, but will be interesting to see how this changes my perspectives on a storm like this. I still may be too far south and east just above the fall line but I'm counting on surface temps to help me here. If I were in still in Old Town, this would be 2 inches of slush expected. I'm just west of Fairfax City. You most definitely will see more snow this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: I almost lost both my in laws to COVID last month. I just want snow. I think a lot of us are feeling that way. It's been a completely sucky year and Mother Nature needs to throw us a bone. I lost my father last month, not due to COVID, and tracking a snowstorm in December is the most fun I've had for quite a while! 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 at hour 42 on the gfs, the heights are lower at 12z vs 00z on the east coast. This is a good sign for the I-95 Crew. Also confluence is pushing further S on the 12z vs 00z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 GFS is a little stronger with tomorrow's wave. Should make for a better 50/50. Nice CAD down to GA again at 60 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Stronger hp at 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, clskinsfan said: GFS is a little stronger with tomorrow's wave. Should make for a better 50/50. Nice CAD down to GA again at 60 Also the high is 2 mb stronger 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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