MN Transplant Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Here we go. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Weather Will said: There is still room for another 30 or so mile shift either way by Wed night. Exactly where the R/SN line will be TBD. EPS 0z v 6z. Slight tick SE. At least the bleeding to the NW stopped. Does it hold here or continue to drift back either way to be TBD. Def moved SE a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Ah you beat me by a minute. I’ll pin and remove mine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Anyway... enjoy the snow you get, try to keep banter in check (within reason) and be nice to each other 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 Nice visualization from CoolWx for the GFS. You have Omega (effectively upward motion), -12 and -18 °C contours to highlight the dendritic region, and the freezing line. http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=VA&stn=KDCA&model=gfs&time=2020121306&field=omega 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Thank god MN started this one... I feel the juju. I concede the se tick. Keep the ticks coming! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: Nice visualization from CoolWx for the GFS. You have Omega (effectively upward motion), -12 and -18 °C contours to highlight the dendritic region, and the freezing line. Hey MN- Ideally, you want the purple and red line on this frame to be 850 to like 725, respectively, for optimal dendrite growth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Here we go! Rooting for the SE / weaker / colder trend for those of you closer to the coast and I-95! Is an area wide banger in mid December likely? No. But we could sure as heck all use it! That baby ticked ever so slightly SE overnight into the morning. Still plenty of time for improvement! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I’ve only looked at posts this morning so far, but seems the models runs are all bouncing within a certain range and we pretty much know what that is. I81 crowd probably is shellacked in any scenario. I95 crowd probably mixes in every scenario. Eastern shore down to RIC is mostly rain in every scenario (sorry friends). Everything I see suggest almost all of LWX gets a WSW. I’ll also say that I’ll take my sleet and rain Wednesday evening and say “thank you sir may I have another!?” if it means I get the kind of deform band that is being advertised. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Oh lord which Kirk Cousins will we get 2 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, PivotPoint said: Hey MN- Ideally, you want the purple and red line on this frame to be 850 to like 725, respectively, for optimal dendrite growth? You don't want the purple line anywhere! You want the best upward motion (the black areas) in between the -12 and -18 contours as much as possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 @WxUSAF @yoda @MN Transplant can you guys tell me what I’m missing down this way and why it’s not as aggressive? Do we get into a good deform band or does it never really materialize until you get north and east of here? I’m not meaning for imby question but I just want to understand the Synoptics a little bit better. I guess I’m just trying to figure out where the disconnect lies out my way and south of Staunton let’s say. Everything I’ve seen the 850’s never get above 0 and look to be -1/-2 all the way down the 81 corridor but the Euro and GFS aren’t as gung ho. I’m assuming we may miss the developing CCB but I also think the leaf on the nw side of things may end up looking better as simulated radars get in closer range. Does anyone have a concern of a dry slot since the decaying primary will be trying to push in toward us or will that be more of a concern for I77/west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’ve only looked at posts this morning so far, but seems the models runs are all bouncing within a certain range and we pretty much know what that is. I81 crowd probably is shellacked in any scenario. I95 crowd probably mixes in every scenario. Eastern shore down to RIC is mostly rain in every scenario (sorry friends). Everything I see suggest almost all of LWX gets a WSW. I’ll also say that I’ll take my sleet and rain Wednesday evening and say “thank you sir may I have another!?” if it means I get the kind of deform band that is being advertised. Agree. I don't see a lot of front-end love for the 95 corridor before it flips, but if we can get some deformation band help that will soften the blow of missing this one. I'm personally always a bit worried that the band will set up in the more favorable (cough, MD) areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Models are obvs bouncing some NW to SE and back. That'll continue til late Tuesday. Seems to be one of those events where Annapolis has 1.5" of slush, BWI gets 5", Westminster gets 12". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, MN Transplant said: Agree. I don't see a lot of front-end love for the 95 corridor before it flips, but if we can get some deformation band help that will soften the blow of missing this one. I'm personally always a bit worried that the band will set up in the more favorable (cough, MD) areas. Latitude and elevation are going to help, as always. @mappy and @psuhoffman are in ideal spots for the deform band as always. But yeah, there’s a risk for the 495 area that it translates farther NE and you get scraped but miss out on the nest. Let’s root for yesterday’s 12z euro scenario! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: Agree. I don't see a lot of front-end love for the 95 corridor before it flips, but if we can get some deformation band help that will soften the blow of missing this one. I'm personally always a bit worried that the band will set up in the more favorable (cough, MD) areas. The MoCo-HoCo deathband is a real thing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: You don't want the purple line anywhere! You want the best upward motion (the black areas) in between the -12 and -18 contours as much as possible. Oh lol, I thought the purple was -12 and the red -18. Haha, just looked purple is zero! Yea, I see now... I was so confused why it looked like a decent vertical field for upward motion between the two temp layers. But the bottom layer is actually zero degrees. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: @WxUSAF @yoda @MN Transplant can you guys tell me what I’m missing down this way and why it’s not as aggressive? Do we get into a good deform band or does it never really materialize until you get north and east of here? I’m not meaning for imby question but I just want to understand the Synoptics a little bit better. I guess I’m just trying to figure out where the disconnect lies out my way and south of Staunton let’s say. Everything I’ve seen the 850’s never get above 0 and look to be -1/-2 all the way down the 81 corridor but the Euro and GFS aren’t as gung ho. I’m assuming we may miss the developing CCB but I also think the leaf on the nw side of things may end up looking better as simulated radars get in closer range. Does anyone have a concern of a dry slot since the decaying primary will be trying to push in toward us or will that be more of a concern for I77/west? I think for Staunton down to Roanoke, it is simply a matter of this being a later developer. One way to visualize is to go to: https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Choose the GFS, and then under precipitation go to the 24 precip accumulation. You can see that tomorrow's system is a fully formed event with a nice stripe of precipitation coming from MS/AL/TN. Whereas Wednesday's storm really doesn't all come together until it is on top of us. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Scraff said: The MoCo-HoCo deathband is a real thing. I'm hoping my new location is far enough west to get into that deathband. I think I might be just a smidge too far east, but it's going to be fun seeing what this area is like in marginal events and what difference, if any, it makes. I obviously know it's not a Hoffman/Mappy type location. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’ve only looked at posts this morning so far, but seems the models runs are all bouncing within a certain range and we pretty much know what that is. I81 crowd probably is shellacked in any scenario. I95 crowd probably mixes in every scenario. Eastern shore down to RIC is mostly rain in every scenario (sorry friends). Everything I see suggest almost all of LWX gets a WSW. I’ll also say that I’ll take my sleet and rain Wednesday evening and say “thank you sir may I have another!?” if it means I get the kind of deform band that is being advertised. Agree. This is a very good overall summary. And I'll also take this opportunity to thank @MillvilleWx for the amazing discussions (even when on mids...not to be confused with meds!!) as well as @MN Transplant, @psuhoffman. Thanks for keeping it real and civil, regardless of what each model run shows. With a little luck where I'm at just on the northwest side of the beltway, it will be more sleety than rain through that time later Wednesday afternoon. I'm intrigued by the after-00Z Wednesday evening into late Wednesday night timeframe as well, if that deform band produces. Nobody around I-95 should be expecting a foot-plus, but a decent warning-level event seems quite possible. Which is far more than many of us have gotten in nearly 2 years. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 12z NAM seems a bit faster and more consolidated out west at h5 at 39 hours comparing to 06z at 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: I think for Staunton down to Roanoke, it is simply a matter of this being a later developer. One way to visualize is to go to: https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Choose the GFS, and then under precipitation go to the 24 precip accumulation. You can see that tomorrow's system is a fully formed event with a nice stripe of precipitation coming from MS/AL/TN. Whereas Wednesday's storm really doesn't all come together until it is on top of us. Awesome site thank you for that! So in this scenario I would be pleased. 1” of liquid and about 9.4” of snow if taken verbatim. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 So long as my grass is covered with frozen precip I'm good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 11 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z NAM seems a bit faster and more consolidated out west at h5 at 39 hours comparing to 06z at 45 Same trend looks to continue at 51 with a little better confluence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 s/w looks to be a bit further south and confluence a bit stronger on h5 at 57 IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, yoda said: s/w looks to be a bit further south and confluence a bit stronger on h5 at 57 IMO Cyclogenesis commences @63 s/se of CHS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 My in-depth analysis of the hour 84 NAM is that it exists. And now we wait for the 12z GFS. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Good thing it’s the 84 hour NAM! In all seriousness, it’s a possible solution. EPS has an unfortunate cluster of lows on the N /VA border around Emporia. Time to wait for a better model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Most won’t like NAM’s evolution. Takes storm from Raleigh to just west of Richmond to a track about to traverse Delaware. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 The NAM might start being useful for this event by the 00z runs Tuesday evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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