rowjimmy73 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: This is where I am at... very close to hardly nothing and a lot... Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk you and me both. im just south and it really wouldnt take much wiggle room to get hit pretty bad now would it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I just don't see those ice amounts verifying when a lot of places will start the event at 31F or so. This airmass marginal and the latent heat process will kill it fairly quickly. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 51 minutes ago, griteater said: I miss a good ice storm from the 80's. You'd go to school with a forecast of rain and 38, and you'd get sent home mid-morning with rain and 28. Models and forecasters didn't have a dam clue on how to handle cold air damming. I remember those days, too, Grit. The 1980s were a great decade for winter weather for those that lived in the shadow of the Apps. (I was in Lenoir then.) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 RAH has Orange, Durham and Person counties under a WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The 18z NAM increased substantially the ice totals on the southeast edge into Guilford County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norcarolinian Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 27 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said: The 18z NAM increased substantially the ice totals on the southeast edge into Guilford County. Might be one of those events where it’s a different world here in Oak Ridge than it is in Climax/Julian. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The 18Z RGEM raised ICE Totals from 12z....Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Raised totals where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 18z RGEMSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 18z RGEMSent from my SM-N981U using TapatalkYou can cut those totals in half and it would still be significant. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: 18z RGEM Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Lights out for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForsythWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 12z NAM vs. 18z NAM - upping ice totals east a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Low forming off Jacksonville, FL. A few more hours of clear skies for I-40 and north. As previously mentioned, the time of day aspect with this one is about as good as it gets with precip moving in overnight into early morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Low forming off Jacksonville, FL. A few more hours of clear skies for I-40 and north. As previously mentioned, the time of day aspect with this one is about as good as it gets with precip moving in overnight into early morning. Grit, do you believe the CAD hangs on longer than whats being modeled?Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The I85 wall will hopefully keep cloudy at Baylor allowing us to max cool! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The HRRR Temps that its showing at the beginning of its cycle are 2-3 degrees or so warmer than what it actually is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForsythWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: The HRRR Temps that its showing at the beginning of its cycle are 2-3 degrees or so warmer than what it actually is... I’ve noticed it seems to be inconsistent. The rain/mix line can be a whole county or 2 further north/south run to run as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Clouds way off in the distances! This is looking south. 39.4/30.8. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Down to 33.1 degrees here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 30 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Grit, do you believe the CAD hangs on longer than whats being modeled? I think a combo of the hi-res NAM and GFS here looks reasonable. I believe the RDPS will be a little too cold. The sneaky factor here will be the prime setup of maximizing the coldest part of the day for when the precip gets going. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Temp down to 32.7 dew 27.7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 @griteater what’s your take on HRRR? Does it usually run too cold? Latest run looks much colder with several hours of some moderate snow up this way based on this run vs last using cod website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6:37 pm. 35/27 Randleman, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said: Grit, do you believe the CAD hangs on longer than whats being modeled? Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Earlier in the week. When I was saying that it was not a true cad setup. There hasn't been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 The 18z Euro wants to develop are narrow band of dynamic cooling aloft over the Piedmont Wednesday afternoon. Actually supports a brief period of snow. What is going on?? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 41 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: @griteater what’s your take on HRRR? Does it usually run too cold? Latest run looks much colder with several hours of some moderate snow up this way based on this run vs last using cod website. I think it's possible you see a little snow, yes...then sleet, then frz rain. I've never been a big fan of the HRRR. It's usually a furnace toward the latter part of its run. And here on this loop, it just doesn't look realistic with this thin transition from snow to rain in a CAD setup. It just tends to be inaccurate toward the end of its run, but it only goes out to 18 hours....so, that doesn't give you much lead time for it to be of much use in winter. Guess it is meant to be used in nowcast time...but hey, I can just look at the radar then. Good luck up there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 18 minutes ago, jjwxman said: The 18z Euro wants to develop are narrow band of dynamic cooling aloft over the Piedmont Wednesday afternoon. Actually supports a brief period of snow. What is going on?? . The HRRR is picking up on this is well... Could be interesting, with some pretty wild dynamics. Short lived window though, just before going into a dry slot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 17 minutes ago, griteater said: I think it's possible you see a little snow, yes...then sleet, then frz rain. I've never been a big fan of the HRRR. It's usually a furnace toward the latter part of its run. And here on this loop, it just doesn't look realistic with this thin transition from snow to rain in a CAD setup. It just tends to be inaccurate toward the end of its run, but it only goes out to 18 hours....so, that doesn't give you much lead time for it to be of much use in winter. Guess it is meant to be used in nowcast time...but hey, I can just look at the radar then. Good luck up there. Appreciate your insight on everything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 The HiRes NAM has much lower ice totals than these lower resolution models (e.g., NAM and RGEM). I would tend to give it greater credence and doubt those high totals will realize.Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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