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Ice Time? Dec. 16ish Possible CAD Event

Tar Heel Snow

By Tar Heel Snow,
in Southeastern States

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eyewall
eyewall

I just don't see those ice amounts verifying when a lot of places will start the event at 31F or so. This airmass marginal and the latent heat process will kill it fairly quickly.

griteater
griteater

NAM was a touch better with the 50/50 low this run.  Here's the 12km precip type on the last frame Wed morning at 7AM

griteater
griteater

12z RDPS (RGEM)

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Is this thing trending less ice here and less snow for mid atlantic... its weird its almost a  perfect setup

The details matter though. The 50-50 low / sfc high / storm wave / sfc low - all of those need to be farther south. Pre-storm cold isn’t deep and expansive.  It’s far from perfect, but our day in the sun (snow) will come, some day / some year 

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CAD_Wedge_NC

CAD_Wedge_NC

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Is this thing trending less ice here and less snow for mid atlantic... its weird its almost a  perfect setup

I always look for a number of things to determine whether we will get a freezing rain event or not. This looks to be a very good example for the classical CAD event.

1) You want to see 850 Mb temperatures of -20C in ME (we have that) Check

2) You need that 540 line in Virginia (we have that) Check

3) A 1030+ high pressure around upstate NY (slightly north with this one) Check

4) Soil temps are important as well (no frozen ground with this one) Concerning but not a show stopper

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Buddy1987

Buddy1987

Posted
Posted

@Blue_Ridge_Escarpment @griteater how are you guys feeling about northern NC mountains up to this are and south of I-64 in general? My goalpost was for 3 or more inches I’d be beyond belated. I think at least for my specific area I can achieve that before zr/pl kick in. Looks close to 1” liquid from my area and to the north/northeast.

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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment

Blue_Ridge_Escarpment

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

@Blue_Ridge_Escarpment @griteater how are you guys feeling about northern NC mountains up to this are and south of I-64 in general? My goalpost was for 3 or more inches I’d be beyond belated. I think at least for my specific area I can achieve that before zr/pl kick in. Looks close to 1” liquid from my area and to the north/northeast.

I think for the ROA it’s going to be a quick transition from snow/sleet to freezing rain. Ice storm warning criteria there for sure. Maybe winter storm warning since dealing with snow and sleet. 

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Buddy1987

Buddy1987

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

I think for the ROA it’s going to be a quick transition from snow/sleet to freezing rain. Ice storm warning criteria there for sure. Maybe winter storm warning since dealing with snow and sleet. 

I still think you’re gonna hang onto 0 850’s for awhile longer than what’s modeled. 1038 high or so will be no joke

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Buddy1987

Buddy1987

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Doesn't look like much snow here,  any chance this thing stays all ICE here?

If you think the GFS is right even you don’t flip down that way. You can put GGEM in that grouping as well. I’m talking about plain rain let me be specific. I think you may start and end freezing rain and have a significant amount at that.

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buckeyefan1

buckeyefan1

Posted
Posted

GSP....
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 100 PM Sunday...A broad area of hipres will build across the Glakes region and push east thru the period. This will provide clearing conds across the FA early Tue and deep layered dry air will persist thru the day as an upstream h5 ridge axis crosses the southeast states. Winds remain rather gusty across the higher NC mtn elevations early Tue and will begin to subside as the flow veers ne/ly throughout the day. Min temps will be noticeably colder than Mon/s lows as a cP airmass mixes in and drops temps to arnd freezing over the non/mtns and a few degrees colder across the mtn valleys. Very good isol will be had during the day, but with llvl CAA maintained, max temps will be held abt 8-10 degrees below normal. This new airmass will set the stage for a likely wintry event Tue night as a dynamical upper low quickly impinges upon the region. Expect a primary sfc cyclone to develop across the nrn GOM and traverse NE thru the period. The associated h85 flow will bring moist WAA advection, which is noted in well defined warm noses on the latest soundings. The models have trended a little colder with the sfc layer air and for now have only bumped temps down a degree or two. This brings freezing and below wetbulb temps into the Upstate, where a mix of -fzra/ra may occur along the I-85 corridor and more predominantly -fzra north across the NC/SC border and into most of NC thru mid morning. The warm nose will be weaker across the NC mtns and expect the better freezing rain accums east over the NC fthills and NW piedmont. Too early for specific values as any change in sfc temps and the timing of the warm nose will make for sigfnt diffs wrt p/types. But for now, this looks like an advisory level event with marginal warning criteria possible along the srn BR escarpment. Snowfall amts should remain low-end as most of it shud fall as sleet, so will expect only an inch or so across the nrn NC mtns and higher peaks. There remains some uncertainty with the breakdown timing of the llvl wedge, so have low-end chance PoPs persisting into Wed evening. Min temps will again be quite cold with readings arnd freezing over all locales, while max temps struggle in the lower to mid 40s.

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Buddy1987

Buddy1987

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Wow, this thing crapped out fast.  I can take a defeat or two this early in December.  But this better not be indicative of Jan-Mar.

Yea man that’s the problem with it being mid December. I-40 south it’s just not time yet in my opinion. Usually takes a lot even up my way (1038mb) high pressure. I will post some pics for you guys with whatever happens. The long range looks pretty damn good. There will be another medium range threat that pops up. I will bet on it. 

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CentralNC

CentralNC

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

So a significant ice storm is still plausible for northern NC , Southern va... further north , Major Snowstorm

I think we end up with high-end nuisance event for us here in the Triad.  My location usually does pretty well with these....depending on the dry slot.

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Joe Clark

Joe Clark

Posted
Posted

RAH Disco from this afternoon: 

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM Sunday...

The chance for wintry weather across the N and W Piedmont Tue night
into Wed is increasing. Chilly temps will persist through next
weekend.

Weak ridging aloft will create dry weather across the region on
Tuesday. Cold surface high pressure building into southern Quebec
will send chilly weather into the area throughout the day, with
highs only reaching the mid to upper 40s during the afternoon.

Latest models are coming in better agreement for the Miller Type B
storm for Tue night/Wednesday. An upper-level trough over the mid-
Mississippi Valley will become negatively-tilted and swing across
the area Wednesday. Additionally, a surface low will develop to our
south and move across the coast on Wednesday, and deepen as it moves
northeast along the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Cold air will already be in
place at the surface when precipitation begins Tuesday night with
many areas at or just below freezing across the northwest half of
Central NC, however the limiting factor in wintry precipitation will
be the warm layer above the cold air near the surface. The layer
does not cool enough for snowfall for our area, however a few flakes
may be mixed in a times. Sleet and mainly freezing rain will likely
be the issue for the northwest part of central NC. The highest
amount of ice accumulation on Wednesday could range between one
tenth and two tenths, but this could still change over the next few
days. Temperatures will increase into the mid 30s by late morning,
so precipitation in the afternoon should be all rain, then as
precipitation ends Wednesday evening, a few snow flakes may be mixed
in again with temperatures dropping.
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