oconeexman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 This one is gonna get interesting for sure! Thanks Grit for the analysis..anyone seen Lookout? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: 925 is -4C at KHKY. I wonder if that keeps them with IP. Slides below on this topic from Wes Junker (we're obviously looking way out at the end of the run, but I still think it's beneficial to see what the soundings look like) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 The 0Z RGEM is setting up to be a monster ICE Storm but I think it has the Temps to cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, griteater said: Slides below on this topic from Wes Junker (we're obviously looking way out at the end of the run, but I still think it's beneficial to see what the soundings look like) Thanks man. Love anything wes does. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: The 0Z RGEM is setting up to be a monster ICE Storm but I think it has the Temps to cold... Where do you get the RGEM out quickly - is it straight from Environ Canada site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Love all the KHKY talk. Keep it coming, guys. Hoping for a cold and thick enough boundary layer to remain mostly sleet.Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, griteater said: Where do you get the RGEM out quickly - is it straight from Environ Canada site? Pivitol weather , I said RGEM , but its the RDPS , not sure if that's the same thing or not 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Pivitol weather , I said RGEM , but its the RDPS , not sure if that's the same thing or not Yeah it's the same...RDPS is new name. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 GFS is a touch colder this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 That wedge is really digging in on this run... I like the trend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 The biggest detractors from significant icing are temps near or above freezing prior to arrival of precip and heavy precip reducing efficient accreation. Factors in favor are, of course our healthy CAD and also fairly respectably low dewpoints. I would say more than .1-.2" is pretty unlikely outside some isolated spots closer to the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 The precip doesn't look all that heavy especially for western areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 0z GFS & 0Z CMC are crushing ICE STORMS for northern NC, Southern VA... ouch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1/2"-3/4" of ICE taken verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Canadian had me so cold that it became a sleet storm in my location. Fingers crossed that’s the case because otherwise, it was lights out for most in wnc. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Icon finally came in and it was colder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Wishing you guys luck with the storm. I’m in southern NC so we will get our usual cold rain. GSO north and west. That’s how it always plays out here in North Carolina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 After 9 winters in Boone this winter will take place in Hickory, just a few miles from the airport to be exact. Non scientific but I will say that the foothills are over due for a big ice storm and several have happened in early to mid December. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 47 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 0z GFS & 0Z CMC are crushing ICE STORMS for northern NC, Southern VA... ouch... 47 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 1/2"-3/4" of ICE taken verbatim. As a ballpark for this storm, I'd maybe target reducing the amount of precip by half for determining ice accretion. So, if you get 0.5 liquid of freezing rain, ice accretion is roughly 0.25. A case of colder temperatures pre-storm and during the storm would increase the ratio. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Euro looks meh. Warm and light precip. Has a stronger low in the TN Valley and less CAD. That run was not good for wintry precip even DC is rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Euro was a hot mess for winter weather lovers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 One thing I have noticed on basically all the models is this isn't a QPF bomb. Less than .5 for western NC and many places less than .3 Miller B suckiness 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 18 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Euro looks meh. Warm and light precip. Has a stronger low in the TN Valley and less CAD. That run was not good for wintry precip even DC is rain Euro bumped warmer again. It was a tick north with the 50/50 low. Looking at the 12z Wed on Pivotal, the temperatures from coldest to warmest are Canadian > NAM/GFS > UKMet > Euro 9 minutes ago, wncsnow said: One thing I have noticed on basically all the models is this isn't a QPF bomb. Less than .5 for western NC and many places less than .3 Miller B suckiness Yeah, Miller B's are notorious for having phantom precip holes pop up on radar as the precip moves thru. Also, with this one, the precip is basically forming on top of us or just to our west in the TN Valley...as opposed to moving east out of Texas. On the other hand, this is a healthy wave and it's not moving at a fast pace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 In the old days, we would say that the Euro is correct, and the other models would trend to it...but it hasn't been that way really in the past 10 years. We will see in the end. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 After 9 winters in Boone this winter will take place in Hickory, just a few miles from the airport to be exact. Non scientific but I will say that the foothills are over due for a big ice storm and several have happened in early to mid December. Welcome to the lowlands, Nelson. Not quite as snowy as Boone, by a longshot. But, I hope to see some nice aerials if and when we do get winter precipitation. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 You got it! Hoping it’s an above average winter down here, won’t take much to beat even what we had last winter in Boone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Local forecast now calling for moderate snow accums at the farm in Stuart, Va. May be working from there on Wednesday! 1,400' elevation can make all the difference on these marginal events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 DC and most of the mid Atlantic isn't going to like the NAM model. Things are trending towards an inland low track and snow only in the mountains. It still produces a decent amount of ice for the foothills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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