Tar Heel Snow Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 I figured I might as well fire up the thread just in time for the 12z Euro! Get your chainsaws ready, and let’s see what the first real track of winter brings us! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Well the Euro is still the warmest model probably and shows it going over to rain for most 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 The Euro remains the least impressive on the CAD setup. WAA overwhelms the CAD very quickly for all of NC. CLT and Upstate SC never even gets in the game and even GSO is on the edge. At this point it’s definitely a plausible outcome, but I’m not so sure the Euro has a good handle on the CAD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 I’m feeling pretty confident that the north half of Triad will see something wintry. Type and how much remains to be seen, but we’re going to have the surface temps here for at least some ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Man, the EURO op is just not impressed at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Imo, Globals struggle with CAD. Tomorrow will be telling with the NAM firmly in range, even though it’ll tend to over do the cad slightly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Where's lookout he is very knowledgeable with CAD events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Imo, Globals struggle with CAD. Tomorrow will be telling with the NAM firmly in range, even though it’ll tend to over do the cad slightly. I have to agree here. History would tell you that the CMC is better in these situations while the Euro doesn't handle the Cad as well.... I would not get too concerned about the Euro in this instance. As a side note, once we get into NAM range, it will tell us all we need to know about the thermal structure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 One negative about this event is there’s no extremely dry surface air to start. A lot of times the cad over performs due to under modeling of how dry the preceding air mass is. That won’t be much of a factor for this storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 8 minutes ago, burrel2 said: One negative about this event is there’s no extremely dry surface air to start. A lot of times the cad over performs due to under modeling of how dry the preceding air mass is. That won’t be much of a factor for this storm. I agree. Dew points for the Carolinas in the 20s does not seem like we cool that much. That plus the EPS backing off on the strength of the 50/50 makes me think this is a classic north of I40 situation for anything noteworthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Take it for what its worth but at the end of the 18z nam it does not look impressive with the CAD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Take it for what its worth but at the end of the 18z nam it does not look impressive with the CAD. Mid 20s here at hour 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: I agree. Dew points for the Carolinas in the 20s does not seem like we cool that much. That plus the EPS backing off on the strength of the 50/50 makes me think this is a classic north of I40 situation for anything noteworthy. Sounds about right, but we'll see how this trends going forward. In terms of the modeling, the CMC is good at getting early hints at CAD, but it's typically too cold. Euro is probably a little too warm. The high res models will be on the colder side I'm sure. 50/50 low needs to escape to the NE slower to see this get colder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Thoughts from GSP NWS .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 PM Saturday...The latest op models depict another dynamic system will affect the fcst area Tue night into Wed. A coupled jet will develop across the the Deep South late Tue and create very good upper div, while a stg h5 trof develops a broad and highly moist sfc low progged to cross the area thru the day Wed. Ahead of this system, a developing classical CAD looks to be in place as a 1035 mb sfc high is maintained across se/rn Canada. This pattern will potentially set the stage for wintry mix precip generally along and north of the I-85 corridor beginning aft 00z Wed. As WAA flow increases abv 2 kft, a warm nose will work north and melt the snow thru a deep layer as seen up to 8 kft on the latest soundings. With the sfc layer remaining cold and reinforced with cooler td/s, the rain is anticipated to change over to -fzra then eventually a sleet mix after 08z while sfc temps drop to sub-freezing wet bulbs east of I-26 and north of I-85. Ice accums look low-end currently as the system will be relatively short lived and the -fzra shud mix with -ra early on. Across the NC mtns and higher elevations of the Upstate and NE GA, snow will be the main p-type, where a few inches are possible across the srn escarpment and lower totals to the north. A lot can change with this system and the fcst will be adjusted over the next few days. One to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 11 minutes ago, griteater said: Sounds about right, but we'll see how this trends going forward. In terms of the modeling, the CMC is good at getting early hints at CAD, but it's typically too cold. Euro is probably a little too warm. The high res models will be on the colder side I'm sure. 50/50 low needs to escape to the NE slower to see this get colder You would think this decent -NAO we finally have on our side right now would work some magic and keep the 50/50 more in place. Perhaps it can do work, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 26 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Take it for what its worth but at the end of the 18z nam it does not look impressive with the CAD. Look at that 1035 straight north... its in a great position , pumping cold air down , perfect setup for ICE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 18 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: You would think this decent -NAO we finally have on our side right now would work some magic and keep the 50/50 more in place. Perhaps it can do work, we'll see. The -AO/-NAO are helping here, but for our region, ideally those reds over Greenland (positive anomalies) would be farther S/SW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 GFS sticks to its guns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 18z GFS cuts the ice in half compared to previous run IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 40 minutes ago, griteater said: The -AO/-NAO are helping here, but for our region, ideally those reds over Greenland (positive anomalies) would be farther S/SW Agreed, I'd love to have the high pressure in NY and not Canada. Beggers/choosers whatnot, but I'm happy to have some tracking in December. If we keep the -AO/-NAO regime into January I think we score eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 18Z GFS keeps the low over land. Destroys the CAD. Barrelling right through the HP, even with a stout HP, a 50/50 low and a -NAO/-AO regime. Literally the best set of ingredients we've had since 2009-2010. Like what do we have to do? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 41 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said: 18z GFS cuts the ice in half compared to previous run IMBY. Same here in the Triad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 I still get almost 1/2" of ice per 18 GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 NAM was a touch better with the 50/50 low this run. Here's the 12km precip type on the last frame Wed morning at 7AM 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 NAM Temperature and Dewpoint at 7AM Wed 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Yea the NAM has temps here in the upper 20s so it would get dicey with ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, griteater said: NAM was a touch better with the 50/50 low this run. Here's the 12km precip type on the last frame Wed morning at 7AM Still looking icy I see. The next few days will be interesting to see how well the models play ‘catch up with the cad’ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Big warm nose here at Hickory of +5.0C at 800mb. Says sleet, but this would be freezing rain. Sleet to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Big warm nose here at Hickory of +5.0C at 800mb. Says sleet, but this would be freezing rain. Sleet to the west. I'm hoping for more sleet than ZR here near Marion and thats usually the case here in these setups but thats quite the warm nose 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 925 is -4C at KHKY. I wonder if that keeps them with IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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