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12/14 snow/rain/mix - Disco/Obs


nj2va
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5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

GFS is colder for Monday. I might have to quit the board. :)

I mean at 42  I am getting pummeled. WTF is happening here. 

I can offer counseling and moral support if thundersnow terrifies you  :P.......it looks like we have a shot at some interesting dynamics out our way......

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The scary thing is this is replacing the NAM eventually and running out to 60.  Nor sure when but certainly within next 3-4 years  

    not really.   Yes, the NAM (and other regional models) will be replaced by a system that is run hourly (like the HRRR), but the new system will be FV3-based.

    regarding the Monday event, the HRRR is the craziest for central MD and DC, but several other hi-res models show a change to snow on the backside of the system, at least across central MD.

 

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
352 AM EST Sun Dec 13 2020

VAZ503-WVZ501-505-131700-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0001.201214T0300Z-201214T1800Z/
Western Highland-Western Grant-Western Pendleton-
352 AM EST Sun Dec 13 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 inches
  or greater are possible.

* WHERE...In Virginia, Western Highland County. In West
  Virginia, Western Grant and Western Pendleton Counties.

* WHEN...From late this evening through early Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Monday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The highest snow totals are expected on the
  ridges above 3000 feet elevation.
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Going to be a game time/obs situation regardless of what mesos spit out today.  Lack of cloud cover tonight will be key to drop boundary layer temps so there is not so much ground to make up tomorrow.  Elevation...rates all a factor to make it almost impossible to pin down.  With that said...12z nams juicing up and say a surprise for some may be on the way..

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15 minutes ago, nj2va said:

You’ll do really well tomorrow.  Easily warning-criteria.  I wish I was heading out to Deep Creek today vs Tuesday night...save some snow for Wednesday!

Any way we slice it the ski resorts should have a banner weekend next weekend.  The question seems to be whether there will be a foot of fresh natural snow on the ground; or two feet.

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12Z Cobb data for MRB. Has a little under a half inch. 

201214/1000Z  22  VRB01KT  38.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02    0|  0|100
201214/1100Z  23  08004KT  37.7F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.159    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18    0|  0|100
201214/1200Z  24  04003KT  34.2F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.205    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.38   58|  0| 42
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
201214/1300Z  25  VRB02KT  33.0F  SNOW    9:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.215    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.59   84|  0| 16
201214/1400Z  26  VRB01KT  32.6F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.212    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.81   85|  0| 15
201214/1500Z  27  VRB02KT  32.6F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.241    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.05   88|  0| 12
201214/1600Z  28  30003KT  32.8F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.101    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.15   86|  0| 14
201214/1700Z  29  33003KT  32.8F  SNOW    5:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.070    1:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.22   86|  0| 14
201214/1800Z  30  29004KT  35.0F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017    1:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.24   31|  0| 69
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