12/14 snow/rain/mix - Disco/Obs

[clskinsfan]

GFS is toasty. 850's are cooking until the rates really get going. White rain most likely? Although it is good to see such a nice vort for our future 50/50

[midatlanticweather]

  On 12/12/2020 at 3:47 PM, clskinsfan said:

GFS is toasty. 850's are cooking until the rates really get going. White rain most likely?

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Ya.. But it is trying to go boom off the coast... Which leads us to the other thread! Lol

[Weather Will]

WB GFS 1pm Monday and total snow map.

[PhineasC]

That's a more classic northern tier look right there.

[WxUSAF]

Dang like 1.5” of rain or more on gfs. Juicy. 

[nw baltimore wx]

  On 12/12/2020 at 3:57 PM, WxUSAF said:

Dang like 1.5” of rain or more on gfs. Juicy. 

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I’m not being a weenie, and I said this last week, but this pattern reminds me so much of December 2009. The grass was soggy and green when we got that first storm.

eta This post reads like a Farmers Almanac weather folklore. 

[NorthArlington101]

GEFS took a big jump up.

12z

06z

[WinterWxLuvr]

Somebody close by is gonna get smacked by this.

[PhineasC]

  On 12/12/2020 at 4:14 PM, WinterWxLuvr said:

Somebody close by is gonna get smacked by this.

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Yeah, big rates being shown on the GFS for this. The person who gets under the heaviest stuff will flip to pounding wet snow and pick up 5-8" quickly before it shuts off.

[WinterWxLuvr]

  On 12/12/2020 at 4:18 PM, PhineasC said:

Yeah, big rates being shown on the GFS for this. The person who gets under the heaviest stuff will flip to pounding wet snow and pick up 5-8" quickly before it shuts off.

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My thinking exactly. And this could be that mythical time when rain changes to pounding snow for a brief period.

[mappy]

  On 12/12/2020 at 4:19 PM, WinterWxLuvr said:

My thinking exactly. And this could be that mythical time when rain changes to pounding snow for a brief period.

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I will gladly offer to be the recipient of that 

[nj2va]

Winchester could jackpot twice in a week.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

  On 12/12/2020 at 4:21 PM, nj2va said:

Winchester could jackpot twice in a week.  

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LOL I thought you said jack

[WinterWxLuvr]

  On 12/12/2020 at 4:25 PM, losetoa6 said:

Member P030 is freakin off the hook 

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Pics or it didn’t happen 

[WinterWxLuvr]

  On 12/12/2020 at 4:36 PM, losetoa6 said:

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LOL for Monday?

[WxUSAF]

Lol I just don’t see how you get big accumulations Monday. Even for you M-D line folks, this seems like 5:1 ratio slop. And the moment it lightens up its back to rain and melt. Hope I’m wrong. I’ll hope for some festive white rain while watching mondays 12z euro. 

[WxUSAF]

Definitely seems likely you all get on the board with an appetizer. 

[clskinsfan]

12Z RGEM is warm. But it has really struggled over the past couple of years. 

[clskinsfan]

12 NAM Buffkit for MRB. 

201214/1000Z  46  06006KT  38.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01    0|  0|100
201214/1100Z  47  09005KT  37.5F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03    0|  0|100
201214/1200Z  48  07005KT  36.8F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.154    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
201214/1300Z  49  03004KT  36.6F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.201    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.38    0|  0|100
201214/1400Z  50  36003KT  36.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.217    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.60   13|  0| 87
201214/1500Z  51  33003KT  32.6F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.217    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.81   88|  0| 12
201214/1600Z  52  31003KT  32.6F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.149    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.96   88|  0| 12
201214/1700Z  53  VRB02KT  33.2F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.108    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.07   75|  0| 25
201214/1800Z  54  33003KT  34.6F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.023    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.09   61|  0| 39

[clskinsfan]

12Z GFS Buffkit for MRB

201214/0800Z  44  03003KT  40.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01    0|  0|100
201214/0900Z  45  01006KT  40.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05    0|  0|100
201214/1000Z  46  02007KT  40.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.023    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07    0|  0|100
201214/1100Z  47  06003KT  39.6F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.058    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13    0|  0|100
201214/1200Z  48  04005KT  39.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.118    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.25    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
201214/1300Z  49  03006KT  38.7F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.113    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.36    0|  0|100
201214/1400Z  50  01006KT  37.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.211    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.58    0|  0|100
201214/1500Z  51  35005KT  34.1F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.213    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.79   14|  0| 86
201214/1600Z  52  36005KT  33.7F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.124    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.91   33|  0| 67
201214/1700Z  53  30004KT  35.3F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.048    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.96   27|  0| 73
201214/1800Z  54  32006KT  35.9F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.99    9|  0| 91
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
201214/1900Z  55  31009KT  38.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.00    0|  0|100

[WxUSAF]

Euro a little weaker and a bit south vs 0z. 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z NAM 

[Baltimorewx]

Too bad there’s not enough cold for this storm...would be a nice 1-2 punch Ala Feb 2010

[clskinsfan]

Yeah. If I get 4 inches out of the first wave I will leave this board. Which will make many happy I am sure

[WinterWxLuvr]

  On 12/12/2020 at 11:00 PM, clskinsfan said:

Yeah. If I get 4 inches out of the first wave I will leave this board. Which will make many happy I am sure

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You might wanna be careful. I’m standing by my call that someone gets hammered with this. Somewhere close. Might be here, Hagerstown, just into southern PA, but somebody will.

I reserve the right to edit this post

[clskinsfan]

  On 12/12/2020 at 9:49 PM, Baltimorewx said:

Too bad there’s not enough cold for this storm...would be a nice 1-2 punch Ala Feb 2010

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If this was happening in February it would definitely be a 1-2 punch IMO. Not prime snow time for us. This actually reminds me of 2009. And if we can end up with half of that winter I will be joyous. 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EURO.  Slightly better than 12Z but still snow tv.  Surface temps in low 40s Monday even in NW zones.

[Snowchaser]

This seems like a safe bet by Accuweather for Monday. 

[clskinsfan]

  On 12/13/2020 at 12:31 AM, Snowchaser said:

This seems like a safe bet by Accuweather for Monday. 

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Yes. I like this map much more than the bomb they posted for Wednesday. 

[NorthArlington101]

NAM is super amped. Probably irrelevant for most of us, might help with Wednesday though.