Buddy1987 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 I’m confusing the hell out of myself now it’s like I’m overthinking the posts. So less amplified wave round 1 makes a better chance for a big dog with wave 2? Holy dyslexia. Meanwhile 0z Icon looks to be coming in slightly more amped for wave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 2:57 AM, Ji said: @psuhoffmanwouldnt a more amped solution give us better rates. the 850 temps for monday have never been an issue but light precip was not going to overcome lower levels...but heavy rates? Expand Yes but the more amplified solutions also tend to be further north and warmer because we’re on the wrong side of the boundary. It’s not universal. It’s possible to get a more amplified colder solution but that’s a razor thin margin on this. I’m being specific to the majority of guidance. The clueless Gfs can obviously get more amplified and colder since it’s still drastically underestimating the wave compared to other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 i think the reason we are seeing the snow now is the more amped solutions are producing heavier rates. Where the 850 temps were good before....and it was light rain...now its heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 3:14 AM, AmericanWxFreak said: Expand Ok I fold. If I get 10” Monday I can live with whatever happens after. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 RGEM is snow in the mountains; rain everywhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Aren't those amped up solutions for Monday? Seems good under the PSU theory for Wedn still, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 3:16 AM, psuhoffman said: Ok I fold. If I get 10” Monday I can live with whatever happens after. Expand Beautiful 10-12” for snowshoe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 3:18 AM, North Balti Zen said: Aren't those amped up solutions for Monday? Seems good under the PSU theory for Wedn still, right? Expand yea i dont see how we would be getting those amounts without having an amped up solution 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 3:18 AM, nj2va said: RGEM is snow in the mountains; rain everywhere else. Expand RGEM has been running really warm lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 3:15 AM, Ji said: i think the reason we are seeing the snow now is the more amped solutions are producing heavier rates. Where the 850 temps were good before....and it was light rain...now its heavy snow Expand Well I think it’s also the timing of the northern branch too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 3:21 AM, PhineasC said: RGEM has been running really warm lately. Expand It had a good winter a few years ago but since, has been pretty bad with temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 This feels like the first time in 5 years where at this range the other models moved towards an amped Euro solution vs the Euro caving. It seems anytime since 2015 the Euro was outlier amped at 72-90 it was wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 ICON appears to be a big hit for @HighStakes, @losetoa6, @psuhoffman, and @mappy, highly elevation dependent. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 3:20 AM, Ji said: yea i dont see how we would be getting those amounts without having an amped up solution Expand You can’t tell by QPF or snowfall in a specific location. Have to look at mslp and h5. On the euro runs all are juiced up but colder and snowier runs here were from a less amped wave that allowed the cold to press more. But...after checking 18z eps the correlation between waves wasn’t as clear as 12z. Could be due to the other factors out west I noticed on the 18z op mitigating. And this Monday wave is trending colder with more upside. So whatever. I’m done. Bring on the Monday snow. Then we roll the dice. Not worried about the correlation. ETA: until it kills us and I write a 12 page document saying I told ya so...kidding not kidding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 ICON is much colder than 18Z. But I dont even know why I look at that model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Icon just looks wonky and wrong with a 1037 HP being bullied. Highly doubt that occurs. Also primary pushes into SE Indiana. Unlikely imo edit: referencing 2nd wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 3:25 AM, Eskimo Joe said: ICON appears to be a big hit for @HighStakes, @losetoa6, @psuhoffman, and @mappy, highly elevation dependent. Expand I’m going to my cabin near Snowshoe at 3,100 feet for this event. Everyone above 2,500-3,000 feet should do just fine Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 3:27 AM, Buddy1987 said: Icon just looks wonky and wrong with a 1037 HP being bullied. Highly doubt that occurs. Also primary pushes into SE Indiana. Unlikely imo edit: referencing 2nd wave Expand I am guessing it shows rain mostly..I don’t have the oomph to even look at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 3:30 AM, BristowWx said: I am guessing it shows rain mostly..I don’t have the oomph to even look at it Expand Not just that it basically finds a way to make the rainiest or warmest solution possible given the pattern. It’s sort of funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 @BristowWx 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 3:30 AM, SnowGoose69 said: Not just that it basically finds a way to make the rainiest or warmest solution possible given the pattern. It’s sort of funny. Expand We’ve failed in quite spectacular fashion way closer than than 5 days. See what the GFS has waiting for us. Either way I’m 3 sheets to the wind 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 @losetoa6 @Ji root for the NAM solution. More amped wave but south/colder also. Better confluence at 84hr then the 18z Gfs same time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 3:39 AM, Buddy1987 said: @BristowWx Expand Thanks. That sucks on so many levels. It really is funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Keep the Wednesday storm in the other thread 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 3:33 AM, WxWatcher007 said: Because it shows snow? Expand Sometimes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 GFS looking pretty juicy back around TX this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 GFS is definitely colder this run. Snowing out here 12Z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 3:48 AM, clskinsfan said: GFS is definitely colder this run. Snowing out here 12Z Monday. Expand And stronger than 18z comparing it at 60 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Toasty at the surface though. I am looking at IWM maps. And the 850 line is way further south than on TT. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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