nj2va Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Splitting out the Monday threat for the LR to focus on the Thursday threat. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 Mods, can you pin this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 00z NAM might finish running by Monday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, nj2va said: 00z NAM might finish running by Monday. NAM is always late on TTT. Gotta use Pivotal or a paid site for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 NAM starts N/W as light snow at hr60. Quicker storm overall than 12z, so far. 850s a good 50 miles south of 12z. hr63: snowing at a good clip for N/W crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 WB 0z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 WB 0z NAMOh oh...Wednesday cancel. See ya guys next time there is a block in 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 0z NAM Oh oh...Wednesday cancel. See ya guys next time there is a block in 2023 at least this depiction would get ya some snow in Leesburg. you aren't even the victim here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 WB 18Z NAM 10 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 Winchester/81/70N crowd should like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 WB NAM 1pm Mon. Ok...some shut eye until Euro...someone else do Goofus. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 That is a big shift on the NAM from 18Z. But big shifts on the NAM dont surprise me. The Euro has insisted it is going to snow on Monday out here. Now it looks like everything else is going to catch up to it like usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, Ji said: 8 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 0z NAM Oh oh...Wednesday cancel. See ya guys next time there is a block in 2023 Watch Monday turn out being the big event of the week. Rabbit out of a hat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 15 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: That is a big shift on the NAM from 18Z. But big shifts on the NAM dont surprise me. The Euro has insisted it is going to snow on Monday out here. Now it looks like everything else is going to catch up to it like usual. It's kinda crazy but we got a real shot. Im cautiously optimistic despite the marginal surface temps because both the NAM and Euro are showing heavy rates. Rates overcome so many set up flaws. If we get a heavy slug of moisture well be S+ and temp will go right to 32-33.Me and you could be under a winter storm watch by this time tomorrow. Maybe I'm getting a bit carried away. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: 3k Oh boy .. I don't hate that 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 Are we rooting for an amped/north wave for Monday for a better 50/50 setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Watch Monday turn out being the big event of the week. Rabbit out of a hat. You take the snow when you can get it. If I can snag 3 inches on Monday I am going to bank that shit. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Living in Leesburg may actually payoff for once here. But per the other thread, a more amped Monday storm may ahve a correlation to a weaker/more progressive/warmer Wednesday storm, right? At least that is how I read it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Watch Monday turn out being the big event of the week. Rabbit out of a hat. It’s unlikely. The only way this probably could occur is if somehow the main shortwave responsible for the Wednesday event is being grossly overestimated by guidance. Otherwise the Monday event being big seems to translate strongly in most ensembles as PSU saw to being a good indicator for Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 A thunder snow watch has been activated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: Living in Leesburg may actually payoff for once here. But per the other thread, a more amped Monday storm may ahve a correlation to a weaker/more progressive/warmer Wednesday storm, right? At least that is how I read it. I think @psuhoffman was saying it was the opposite: that we want more amped to lower heights (still not entirely clear on what "heights" are, but I digress, lol). We want lower heights for a colder Wednesday system, I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: Are we rooting for an amped/north wave for Monday for a better 50/50 setup? 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Are we rooting for an amped/north wave for Monday for a better 50/50 setup? according to PSU...we want to give us the chance for snow monday even though it hasnt snow since 2019 for a bigger chance on Wednesday. can we have an amped south wave lol that just gives us huge rates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, HighStakes said: It's kinda crazy but we got a real shot. Im curiously optimistic despite the margin surface temps because both the NAM and Euro are showing heavy rates. Rates overcome so many set up flaws. If we get a heavy slug of moisture well be S+ and temp will go right to 32-33.Me and you could be under a winter storm watch by this time tomorrow. Maybe I'm getting a bit carried away. This is what happened on 11/15/18. The NAM was one of the coldest models for that event too and was largely dismissed, but it had the right idea of big rates overcoming a very marginal air mass. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 That 3k is a really decent hit out here. The column is good all the way down. And 33 at the surface: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 @psuhoffmanwouldnt a more amped solution give us better rates. the 850 temps for monday have never been an issue but light precip was not going to overcome lower levels...but heavy rates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: Nice to see you posting sir Big takeaway. That was November and this time its mid December so hopefully game on. The November 2018 event was what we call the due north overrunner when we did storm analysis. I don’t know how they performed for you guys but for the NYC metro any event that comes up straight from the south with a high center near PWM ends up much snowier than expected because you get banding features and the cold air holds longer. 12/14/03 2/13/14 and 1/22/87 are other examples. 87 was more a classic Miller but the track was almost on a 180-360 angle up the coast. There is absolutely a difference in isentropic glide features when it’s coming from that direction vs 220-040 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 12 minutes ago, nj2va said: Are we rooting for an amped/north wave for Monday for a better 50/50 setup? Yea I think that’s what PSU was alluding to when I asked him for gut opinion. It will allow the 2nd wave to amplify more with a stronger 50/50 in place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: That 3k is a really decent hit out here. The column is good all the way down. And 33 at the surface: You’re gonna get smoked up there brother! This is your type of storm. Low traversing too close to me down here usually bodes well for you. I’ll gladly raise the white flag if it makes us both happy come Wednesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ji said: according to PSU...we want to give us the chance for snow monday even though it hasnt snow since 2019 for a bigger chance on Wednesday. can we have an amped south wave lol that just gives us huge rates? There are ways to get snow on snow. The main correlation with Monday being south was to a less amplified 50/50. But there are other variables that could offset. Or the Monday wave could walk the thin line. Be amplified but colder also. There were a few snow on snow solutions but that’s playing with fire. Get a weaker south wave that doesn’t produce the heavy rates needed and we get snow TV and give up the better setup 48 hours later. This is also a preference thing. I’m a big dog hunter. I’ll gladly give up a guaranteed 3” for a 25% chance at 12”. Part of that is where I live. 3” snows are kinda common. I totally get having a different attitude when you haven’t seen an inch in 2 years. So I don’t begrudge anyone’s different opinion. This reminds me of a setup in 2015. 2 waves. In this case we had too much cold and confluence. But the chance to amplify was better for wave 2. And runs that had a weak front runner had a gorgeous bomb for wave 2 a couple days later. Wave 1 ended up a 4-6” snow in DC and about 3.5” up here. Most were happy but HM and me were lamenting the lost chance as an east coast monster for a mundane progressive wave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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