Active mid December with multiple event potential

[The 4 Seasons]

10:1  map for the s

 

[weathafella]

Just now, Thunderblizzard said:

Shortwave kind of strung out a bit more towards the end compared to 18z... seemed more amped early. Still plenty good for much of SNE.

Kind of dog shit north of the Pike though.  Hopefully it's a hiccup.

[Greg]

Not that great, For my hood. Need that to com further north than this.

[The 4 Seasons]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Never any doubt here. Couple last minute tics here and we’re golden. Really golden.

Same. Not sure how you can go with a model that is an extreme outlier, not to mention its newer counterpart is in the main camp.

Are you guys doing a map for SCTWX?

[RDRY]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Same. Not sure how you can go with a model that is an extreme outlier, not to mention its newer counterpart is in the main camp.

Are you guys doing a map for SCTWX?

The para is the upgraded GFS? Seems very erratic.

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, Thunderblizzard said:

Shortwave kind of strung out a bit more towards the end compared to 18z... seemed more amped early. Still plenty good for much of SNE.

This is a signal I don't love. Euro is able to overcome it to an extent, but it's similar to how the GFS handles it.

Throwing multiple shortwaves into the longwave trough is complicating the flow just enough. Like when you get two closely spaced waves at the beach and the lead wave gets held back by the trailing wave some. 

[The 4 Seasons]

2 minutes ago, RDRY said:

The para is the upgraded GFS? Seems very erratic.

i believe the v16 is the new, called the para on TT. The past two days its been consistently north with the Wed storm. I really havent been paying too much attention to it until Dec 5th event, no real storms to track.

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah. We put out a C-2 for Monday and will probably do a first call map Monday night. Early thoughts (not shared with followers) is 12-18 statewide, but we’ll see what the data says tomorrow afternoon. CT is in a good spot. 

lol sounds familiar.

[ineedsnow]

Need a 30 mile or so shift north

[Sn0waddict]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

This is a signal I don't love. Euro is able to overcome it to an extent, but it's similar to how the GFS handles it.

Throwing multiple shortwaves into the longwave trough is complicating the flow just enough. Like when you get two closely spaced waves at the beach and the lead wave gets held back by the trailing wave some. 

Was about to go to bed feeeling good and then you had to do this.. . Actually it’s good to be made aware of stuff like this, but a positive GFS trend would really help me feel better about this whole thing. 

[The 4 Seasons]

9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Lol. C-2 today feels like an easy call. Maybe a few isolated 3 spots if we get lucky. 

Midweek is the big one. Part of me wants to be more conservative but I really like where we sit. 

im about the same its just a little more nuanced, i split the c-2 into two ranges is all.

[40/70 Benchmark]

34 minutes ago, Thunderblizzard said:

Shortwave kind of strung out a bit more towards the end compared to 18z... seemed more amped early. Still plenty good for much of SNE.

I know I was fu@#ed on the euro when someone from CT said its still "plenty good for much of SNE".....AKA sucks north of the pike.

Map verified my interpretation. 

[The 4 Seasons]

Light snow event for CT. NAM being the most robust and coldest of the models at 00Z. Bufkit showing some pretty decent lift in the DGZ and apparent on the GFS as well. GEM and RGEM are the warmest with the EC somewhere in between. The main problem i see is going to be the BL temps near the shore and at lower elevations. This will be a mainly grassy surface type of event for most unless you are 4 or 500ft and above. This will be occuring at all daylight hours but the thing we have going for it is that we are near the lowest sun angle of the season. Unless the colder solns verify and we can get some decent mod rates for a while i expect the shore to be mainly white rain. This is a general C-2 event but cant rule out the possibility of some favored hill towns in central connecticut seeing 3". Everything is done by 5-7PM as the colder air comes rushing in setting the state for a potential block buster event across the region.

[The 4 Seasons]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I know I was fu@#ed on the euro when someone from CT said its still "plenty good for much of SNE".....AKA sucks north of the pike.

Map verified my interpretation. 

Sorry about that. Location perspective wording. You're location is so far north you can basically consider it CNE, or at least on the southern edge of CNE, northern edge of SNE. Its subjective.

Still feel the 00Z EC was essentially the same as 12Z overall slightly less on the Nrn edge. But you didnt get that solid bump north you were waiting for...yet. Plenty of runs to go. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

This is a signal I don't love. Euro is able to overcome it to an extent, but it's similar to how the GFS handles it.

Throwing multiple shortwaves into the longwave trough is complicating the flow just enough. Like when you get two closely spaced waves at the beach and the lead wave gets held back by the trailing wave some. 

This worries me because if it's more of a wave spacing issue as opposed to simply battling confluence, then the N trend due to latent heat release conceptualization really doesn't hold weight. This is an issue that needs to be alleviated quickly, or else my Final Call on Wednesday will look much different. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Sorry about that. Location perspective wording. You're location is so far north you can basically consider it CNE, or at least on the southern edge of CNE, northern edge of SNE. Its subjective.

Still feel the 00Z EC was essentially the same as 12Z overall slightly less on the Nrn edge. But you didnt get that solid bump north you were waiting for...yet. Plenty of runs to go. 

You did nothing wrong.

Been a frustrating start to the season for me, as I gor fringed in October with one of the lower amounts, then hosed last weekend. 

[The 4 Seasons]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You did nothing wrong.

Been a frustrating start to the season for me, as I gor fringed in October with one of the lower amounts, then hosed last weekend. 

Its been a solid 2 years for us in the tri-state area, S RI and SE MA. Going on 3 years for anything 6+ in MET winter.

[weathafella]

I only looked at the EPS snow maps and they look about the same as prior runs.

[40/70 Benchmark]

That 00z euro run sliced accumulations in half N of the pike....sure, maybe "noise" if you live in CT, but it's pretty damn deafening up here.

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This worries me because if it's more of a wave spacing issue as opposed to simply battling confluence, then the N trend due to latent heat release conceptualization really doesn't hold weight. This is an issue that needs to be alleviated quickly, or else my Final Call on Wednesday will look much different. 

Agreed. The good news is that the second wave packet has yet to be sampled completely yet and it's been subtle changes in its location that have made some big differences.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Its been a solid 2 years for us in the tri-state area, S RI and SE MA. Going on 3 years for anything 6+ in MET winter.

Been over a calendar year for me, which is just as anomalous.

[Thunderblizzard]

I know I was fu@#ed on the euro when someone from CT said its still "plenty good for much of SNE".....AKA sucks north of the pike.
Map verified my interpretation. 

Suppose I should have worded it pike south... good news up there is that EPS seem better than OP from what I can see.

[The 4 Seasons]

Wed-Thu blizzard.

This is probably the earliest i've made a first call with around 3 days to go. Updates to follow. Capped it at 20 as i dont like going into the 20s, 24, 30 etc until we get close to the event and see "the whites of its eyes" as they say. Plenty of time to adjust. I like when maps take 20 minutes to make its nice and simple. That may change though.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

Wed-Thu blizzard.

This is probably the earliest i've made a first call with around 3 days to go. Updates to follow. Capped it at 20 as i dont like going into the 20s, 24, 30 etc until we get close to the event and see "the whites of its eyes" as they say. Plenty of time to adjust. I like when maps take 20 minutes to make its nice and simple. That may change though.

Agree. Similar thinking.

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agree. Similar thinking.

Its been a decade since we got to track something like this in December. 

Wow i just read the watch for NJ. Ive never seen an early watch that says 12" or more possible. They always go with the criteria 6" or more possible..or they do a range. Never seen 12. Should be getting watches region wide in an hour or so if NJ went up yesterday evening.

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 12
  inches or more possible.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Its been a decade since we got to track something like this in December. 

Wow i just read the watch for NJ. Ive never seen an early watch that says 12" or more possible. They always go with the criteria 6" or more possible..or they do a range. Never seen 12. Should be getting watches region wide in an hour or so if NJ went up yesterday evening.

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 12
  inches or more possible.

No brainer, there.

[The 4 Seasons]

Stinks that the imagine quality gets downgraded when i upload those maps. They look a million times better on my PC. Very sharp and crisp. I get it though, trying to save bandwidth with all the posts and images were uploading a million times a day. It's a free site after all.

[ice1972]

I’d love a synoptic Jack here in The hole of Hartford that ****s me in the A every time.....I’ll fly the middle finger all day and night when that happens.....2013 was the last time.....LFG

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, ice1972 said:

I’d love a synoptic Jack here in The hole of Hartford that ****s me in the A every time.....I’ll fly the middle finger all day and night when that happens.....2013 was the last time.....LFG

There have been plenty of times since then where you might not have nessisarily jacked but you didnt get porked in the ass either. Feb 17, Mar 17, Jan 18, Mar 18 come to mind. But yea since a 91 jackpot its been a while.

[ice1972]

10 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

There have been plenty of times since then where you might not have nessisarily jacked but you didnt get porked in the ass either. Feb 17, Mar 17, Jan 18, Mar 18 come to mind. But yea since a 91 jackpot its been a while.

Those were all pork