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Active mid December with multiple event potential


Typhoon Tip
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Just now, DotRat_Wx said:

Oh, no.. Did they put this on air? Yikes 

I don't know if that was on air, but it was definitely on their web site, and maybe their Facebook page.  I saw a handful of people re-post it last night and this morning on my Facebook feed, and got a few questions about it.  Clearly some people thought that was the forecast.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol so bizarre. It was definitely more amped through like 48 or 54h. I thought for sure it was coming north this run. 

Know what would be kind of funny or interesting…? Is if the GFS never saw it – like… Even in now casting it comes out with that model run and it still has that painted like that when it’s snowing ass plus plus almost to Rutland Vermont

I wonder if that’s ever happened

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I am never sold on the GFS during a progressive like season in the LA Nina driven northern branch with its heavy biases towards progressive patterns.  Will or anyone who has been paying attention, does the new GFS have the biases the old GFS did with the progressive tendencies, I found that the previous GFS had a tendency to be quite progressive over the East Coast prior to storms.  Within the 3-7 day window!

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol so bizarre. It was definitely more amped through like 48 or 54h. I thought for sure it was coming north this run. 

I'm trying to look for run to run changes over the last 24 hours.

All I'm really seeing is the spacing is shortening between it and the kicker shortwave, and there's another shortwave in Canada (coming out of Hudson Bay) that has been slowing down run to run. Prior runs had it clearing before our shortwave arrived in New England, so there was more room to amplify. Now it's just getting crushed as they arrive at the same time.

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol so bizarre. It was definitely more amped through like 48 or 54h. I thought for sure it was coming north this run. 

I think it’s the bias of placing lows too far SE. idk why you guys are even worried tbh. I’d rather be in Boston than philly right now by a long shot. 

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Know what would be kind of funny or interesting…? Is if the GFS never saw it – like… Even in now casting it comes out with that model run and it still has that painted like that when it’s snowing ass plus plus almost to Rutland Vermont

I wonder if that’s ever happened

Yeah december 30 2000 in Washington DC lol. Though it was a different model back then

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4 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Joe snow from southie? Is he a yuppie? I'll have to take him out to a real dive and set him straight 

Lol - GFS most consistent model...tough to go against consistent...EURO may do full cave tonight with sampling better ...GFS will be crowned new king or if wrong EURO says get out of my house...battle Royale here!

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6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I'm trying to look for run to run changes over the last 24 hours.

All I'm really seeing is the spacing is shortening between it and the kicker shortwave, and there's another shortwave in Canada (coming out of Hudson Bay) that has been slowing down run to run. Prior runs had it clearing before our shortwave arrived in New England, so there was more room to amplify. Now it's just getting crushed as they arrive at the same time.

It’s basically like that first superman movie from 1977… Where he flies around the planet like so fast that he approaches the speed of light ? GFS is trying to do something similar with every feature it detects ... tries to take it from that position 90 times around the planet before the next cycle comes out…

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3 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I mean not really, the euro crushed us at 18z with close to 15-20” . If you mean the Max zone then yeah 

I guess I could have been a little bit more clear. It's the only model pretty much giving you most of the goods but pretty much shutting out southern New England and even New York City for the most part.

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5 minutes ago, JoeSnowBOS said:

Lol - GFS most consistent model...tough to go against consistent...EURO may do full cave tonight with sampling better ...GFS will be crowned new king or if wrong EURO says get out of my house...battle Royale here!

GFS most consistent? Not really...

Also, I believe (but not 100% sure) that the NAM had same full sampling as GFS at this point, so if sampling was a variable there should have been a similar outcome, but they are rather different at this point.

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

It’s basically like that first superman movie from 1977… Where he flies around the planet really like so fast that he approach is the speed of light ? GFS is trying to do something similar with every feature it detects ... tries to take it from that position 90 times around the planet before the next cycle comes out…

I mean the GFS tends to be northern stream dominant, so maybe it's just bulldozing the whole pattern with the James Bay shortwave. 

I'm still firmly two feet in the GFS is too far south camp. 

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1 minute ago, JoeSnowBOS said:

Lol - GFS most consistent model...tough to go against consistent...EURO may do full cave tonight with sampling better ...GFS will be crowned new king or if wrong EURO says get out of my house...battle Royale here!

Joe,  it was just 24hrs ago the GFS crushed everybody...along with the other modeling. It was at 0z last night that it went off.  It’s still by itself for the most part.  

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Joe,  it was just 24hrs ago the GFS crushed everybody...along with the other modeling. It was at 0z last night that it went off.  It’s still by itself for the most part.  

Fair point but 4 runs in a row of consistenty and sampling better with 0z runs...just saying GFS in its prime zone now and 4 straight runs and no model is trending NW, EURO has started its SE trend already...

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9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I mean the GFS tends to be northern stream dominant, so maybe it's just bulldozing the whole pattern with the James Bay shortwave. 

I'm still firmly two feet in the GFS is too far south camp. 

Yeah I’m not feeling that either frankly

I’m thinking 6 to 10 for now ... lollipop for teens under impossible to predict meso axis’. 
 

Option for a more robust when the relay continues to succeed and I don’t think these meso versions going so significant here as the relay gets started is mere coincidence. You know the northside ens/model smear usually does not end well for S outliers. Just Sayin. ...If the relay comes in weak sauce then the GFS gets lucky for lack of better word. 

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