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Active mid December with multiple event potential


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1 minute ago, kdxken said:

So no 72-hour with snows through Friday ? 

No, but I was strictly looking at the duration of the storm for Southwest CT when I stated that. I stated a little earlier that nobody should go over 15 hours straight snow unless the ocean effect snow linger a tad longer in duration.

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19 minutes ago, dryslot said:

 

 

image.png.7b4a2df90ca5e41031e4811d1f0c9474.png

Looks the similar to me.

Different plotting scheme...

Pivotal defined their bins from -60 to +120 w/increments of 1 (approximating here) so 180 different bins in total. StormVista defined their bins from -40 to +120 w/increments of 5 (32 total bins). Since Pivotal plots their images with more bins, it appears finer than StormVista's plots. Assuming that both brands are plotting the same model without interpolating, there should be no difference.

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Actually the H5 shortwave and long wave trough look a lot healthier through 61 hours on the 00z GFS.  In fact the southern energy that rounds the base of the long wave trough is more neutral tilted almost leaning negative as the main shortwave leans negative.  Overall there is more pure balance to the long wave trough.  Better organization leads to a better storm overall.

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The whole world has gone mad…

It’s like even some government and officials and scientists seem to bias when not swept away by the e-psychotropic culture. They’re taking these just climate disproportionate absurd numbers and running to the hysteria bank with ‘em. 

I mean you’re not gonna get 20 to 23 inches of snow spread out over that vast of a pan dimensional area from a middling mechanics storm I’m sorry you might get an excessive total close to 18 out of a couple of meso nugget thunder snows in there I don’t know but you’re not getting the entire interior of Massachusetts under a glacier like that from this…

… Unless it like slows down stalls and gets a little bit deeper and cranks in CCB for an additional 6 to 9 hours.  Again 18 inches in a narrow isolated band maybe that’s the most likely solution not throwing up plausibilities for ratings

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We have seen models do this cat and mouse dance numerous times before in the big storms.  For the 3-4 day window where the storm might be tracking too far southeast for any meaning full impacts, the models would have a tendency to first under sell the intensity of the energy moving onshore the western CONUS and also losing the organization of the trough as it heads stateside across the plains.  However, within 48 hours, the trend would be for a better sampling, and a better consolidated piece of energy.  If I am not mistaken once such occurrence was the FEB 2016 SNOWICANE that missed by 100 miles, but the H5 and H7 circulations were large enough, it brought almost a foot of snow to the SE New England areas, especially BOS SE.

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