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Active mid December with multiple event potential


Typhoon Tip
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Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I honestly can see how it would rain with the storm tracking just south of Islip by like 50-100 miles.  That brings in a strong southeasterly low level flow into the coast.  Our surface high would not be strong enough to keep the cold air locked in with a southeast wind!

:facepalm:

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2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Need some model sensitivity data as well from @OceanStWx

It's like my own sultan signal.

12z GEFS over half the variance is explained by some tucked solutions in the NY Bight (™Tip). There isn't a strong sensitivity to the upper air pattern until probably tomorrow afternoon at the earliest. We want to start looking for higher heights over the Upper Midwest. 

I think intuitively that makes sense, a more amplified upper air pattern could result in a more amplified low vs. a more zonal pattern.

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