RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: That looks damn good to me here lol. Our SCW team were throwing around (non-public) numbers earlier today and we were thinking 12-18 across CT as a first call. I think we need some more nuclear stuff/slower progression for someone to go 20+. 18z Euro could do it . Yea. I like 12-18” as the jack range but crazy we are throwing amounts around but we’re still not in the nam range yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, weathafella said: We should get better sampling now starting to show on 0Z suite but better 12z? Yeah...I mentioned this a couple hours ago so sorry if it's been seen already but, this relay off the Pacific isn't coming in a slug of wind max...the axis of the trough is well inland, and there are still 90kt wind flags stabbing into the western side of the trough, so it's got a bit of lag jet mechanics feeding in.. That might impose additional morphologies in the runs - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Euro has had this with not ouch change from the d8 lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Greg said: The way it was measured it sure. The Coop way gives you a few inches less. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, JC-CT said: It’s the season for some of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Just stating facts my man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Got this from " the other forum " Just reading the info from the NWS tells me the GFS is way off on ts representation of this event. Not so much track but the intensity and precipitation field. We have wondered why the precip just dies out and @StretchCT, @Phased Vort and @MaineJay all have pointed out the weakening of the system. However the NWS is saying this is a developing and intensifying system. tells me the GFS isn't in its right mind and we can expect a giant run either tonight's 00Z or tomorrow when it gets back on track. We may be seeing those incredible numbers it was spitting out Friday night and early Saturday again. So I think we are going to see a huge GFS run that actually makes more sense in the next 24 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Greg said: Just putting out facts my man. My feelings don't care about your facts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Same here 2 inches last winter Brutal. Just brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: My feelings don't care about your facts My facts don't care about your feelings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 9 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Whatever Hoth, you had 40" in Nemo. That's your Nemo. True, though I was in Boston for that one. Jan '11 was pretty epic down here though. I also got to be in Boston for 2015, so my winter storm bingo card is pretty much full at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 10 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Got this from " the other forum " Just reading the info from the NWS tells me the GFS is way off on ts representation of this event. Not so much track but the intensity and precipitation field. We have wondered why the precip just dies out and @StretchCT, @Phased Vort and @MaineJay all have pointed out the weakening of the system. However the NWS is saying this is a developing and intensifying system. tells me the GFS isn't in its right mind and we can expect a giant run either tonight's 00Z or tomorrow when it gets back on track. We may be seeing those incredible numbers it was spitting out Friday night and early Saturday again. So I think we are going to see a huge GFS run that actually makes more sense in the next 24 hours or so. And since sampling is going to happen overnight or tomorrow It stands to reason that if any substantial changes occur in the forecast of this storm, they’d be more likely to show up overnight tonight with the 00 Zulu runs? Or later than that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea. I like 12-18” as the jack range but crazy we are throwing amounts around but we’re still not in the nam range yet. Could be some 24-28” amounts where it snows 30+ hours 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Yep. Long way to go. That's why our numbers aren't public yet. Let's get another few suites in before throwing out buns to snow lovers. We're just talking potential right now. I should have said we aren’t fully in nam range and I’m also not knocking anyone for guesses or first calls either. The data supports it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 9 minutes ago, Greg said: The way it was measured, sure. The COOP method gives you a few inches less. However you measure it, it was a lot of snow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Could be some 24-28” amounts where it snows 30+ hours If the capture/stall ccb materializes like euro/eps indicates then I can see some 20-30” jacks, sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: However you measure it, it was a lot of snow. I agree with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 It looks like October snow didn’t pork us. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, weathafella said: It looks like October snow didn’t pork us. ORH didn’t break 7” in October. We’re good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 12 to 2 inch gradient within the District of Columbia on that one. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Henry's Weather said: That map actually makes sense at this stage of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Henry's Weather said: TBlizz still worried. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, Greg said: I agree with this. Incidentally, Hamden was forecast to get 12-18" in that storm. Talk about a positive bust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Hoth said: Incidentally, Hamden was forecast to get 12-18" in that storm. Talk about a positive bust! The 24-36” forecasts generally don’t materialize lol but the 12-18” types can turn it up a notch if things break right. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 OT but I can’t get a sv pic to save as anything other than a blank map. Any ideas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: It looks like October snow didn’t pork us. Let’s just hope it’s not a December to remember and a Jan and Feb to bender our fannies 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: Incidentally, Hamden was forecast to get 12-18" in that storm. Talk about a positive bust! Absolutely! I haven't seen drifts like that since the Blizzard of January 2005 here in my neck of the woods. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, weathafella said: OT but I can’t get a sv pic to save as anything other than a blank map. Any ideas? Lay off the Crown for a few hours and try again? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Reasonable to assume 12:1 ish ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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