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Active mid December with multiple event potential


Typhoon Tip
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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That looks damn good to me here lol. 

Our SCW team were throwing around (non-public) numbers earlier today and we were thinking 12-18 across CT as a first call. I think we need some more nuclear stuff/slower progression for someone to go 20+. 18z Euro could do it :weenie:

Yea. I like 12-18” as the jack range but crazy we are throwing amounts around but we’re still not in the nam range yet.

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1 minute ago, weathafella said:

We should get better sampling now starting to show on 0Z suite but better 12z?   

Yeah...I mentioned this a couple hours ago so sorry if it's been seen already but, this relay off the Pacific isn't coming in a slug of wind max...the axis of the trough is well inland, and there are still 90kt wind flags stabbing into the western side of the trough, so it's got a bit of lag jet mechanics feeding in..

That might impose additional morphologies in the runs -

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Got this from " the other forum " 

Just reading the info from the NWS tells me the GFS is way off on ts representation of this event. Not so much track but the intensity and precipitation field. We have wondered why the precip just dies out and @StretchCT, @Phased Vort and @MaineJay all have pointed out the weakening of the system. However the NWS is saying this is a developing and intensifying system. tells me the GFS isn't in its right mind and we can expect a giant run either tonight's 00Z or tomorrow when it gets back on track. We may be seeing those incredible numbers it was spitting out Friday night and early Saturday again. So I think we are going to see a huge GFS run that actually makes more sense in the next 24 hours or so.

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10 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Got this from " the other forum " 

Just reading the info from the NWS tells me the GFS is way off on ts representation of this event. Not so much track but the intensity and precipitation field. We have wondered why the precip just dies out and @StretchCT, @Phased Vort and @MaineJay all have pointed out the weakening of the system. However the NWS is saying this is a developing and intensifying system. tells me the GFS isn't in its right mind and we can expect a giant run either tonight's 00Z or tomorrow when it gets back on track. We may be seeing those incredible numbers it was spitting out Friday night and early Saturday again. So I think we are going to see a huge GFS run that actually makes more sense in the next 24 hours or so.

And since sampling is going to happen overnight or tomorrow It stands to reason that if any substantial changes occur in the forecast of this storm, they’d be more likely to show up overnight tonight with the 00 Zulu runs? Or later than that?

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Yep. Long way to go. That's why our numbers aren't public yet. Let's get another few suites in before throwing out buns to snow lovers. We're just talking potential right now. 

I should have said we aren’t fully in nam range and I’m also not knocking anyone for guesses or first calls either. The data supports it. 

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