Active mid December with multiple event potential

[Greg]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I measured 18" in Wilmington, but here in Methuen had about 5-7".

It's possible 18" may have fallen, don't remember exactly but I'll just go with at least 17" and call it a day. As you indicated, Very sharp cut off to the north.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Wyndham Southbury Doesn't look that bad for this.

There’s a lot of good spots in SNE. You won’t have to go that far but let me know. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Greg said:

It's possible 18" may have fallen, don't remember exactly but I'll just go with at least 17" and call it a day. As you indicated, Very sharp cut off to the north.

Total depth was 16-17"....you are right. But if you swept and cleared, then it was 18".

[Spanks45]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

There’s a lot of good spots in SNE. You won’t have to go that far but let me know. 

We like visitors, that means that a great storm is coming...

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

what are you referring to?

Beer

[weathafella]

7 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

what are you referring to?

? ??

[Baroclinic Zone]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wouldn't even be worried where you are.

Gradient could end up like Jan 1996....which isn't a problem in SNE for anyone, but me and maybe northern Berkshires.

I’m not.  

[mahk_webstah]

12 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I’ll be very surprised if this doesn’t get the goods into southern NH at least.

I’ve been feeling this way for 2 days,  just based on weenie pattern recognition.  But I think we’ll know in the morning or maybe 12z.  That being said I over under number is 5 inches. Anything over 5 inches is a win in anything under sucks

[Henry's Weather]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

? ??

The storm as a whole or 18z GEFS? Probably the storm as a whole because GEFS are less than ideal

[weathafella]

Just now, Henry's Weather said:

The storm as a whole or 18z GEFS? Probably the storm as a whole because GEFS are less than ideal

Storm. Models are obvious to anyone’s eyes.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

There’s a lot of good spots in SNE. You won’t have to go that far but let me know. 

Ya, there will be shifts but SW CT just off the coast has looked good for many many runs in a row and that probably won't change soon.  Danbury Ct has about same latitude as Newport RI and decent elevation in spots... Just lookin ha. 

[MJO812]

Upton already all in for down here

 

Upton all in

 

Given the supply of low level cold air and unlikelihood of
warmer air intruding aloft, this event looks to be all snow for
just about the entire region, except maybe the south shore of
eastern Long Island for a time. Too early to get into the
mesoscale details here, but confidence in significant snowfall
amounts over 6 inches continues to increase, with potential
for over a foot of snow in areas that experience the best
mesoscale lift and snow growth NW of the low track.

NE winds should also be quite strong along the coast due to the
pressure gradient between the strong high to the north and the
developing low, as high as 25-35 mph with gusts up to to 45
mph, causing considerable blowing and drifting of snow and at
least near blizzard conditions.

Still some question how quickly the low will pull out on Thu,
with the ECMWF lagging a little behind the GFS, so steady snow
still likely in the morning, then gradually tapering off from W
to E through the day.

Fair and cold Thu night into Sat with high pressure returning,
then some moderation possible with an approaching frontal
system. Too early to get into precip type details with this
system, just calling it mainly rain/snow at this juncture

[PhineasC]

I went back to MD for the best possible 10 days, it looks like. Latest GFS is about 20" here. Nothing going on in NNE right now.

[WxFreak11]

Last year I moved back to RI from SC after living there for 10 years. I moved there because I thought I was sick of the snow here but after putting up with bugs the size of birds, hurricanes and humidity to melt your brain I realized snow ain’t so bad so I came back last year and couldn’t wait for our first snowstorm last year. Sadly disappointed because here in RI it was a snow drought last year. So I’m pumped for my first official nor’easter that hopefully won’t disappoint. Bring it on!

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I went back to MD for the best possible 10 days, it looks like. Latest GFS is about 20" here. Nothing going on in NNE right now.

You are lucking out

Last week and now this week

[KoalaBeer]

27 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It’s been great since you moved north because often what is good for you is also good for me so your are like a local met for me! 

Haha agreed! I think I moved to the seacoast not long after the whole 31” debacle and my jackpot in Methuen took over his measurement in Wilmington which I fully trusted...but I got a kick out of it on the spotter page. 

Still have yet too see a warning criteria event on the NH seacoast and I’m thinking of moving north once my lease is up end of January. Still holding out hope this delivers up here. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said:

Haha agreed! I think I moved to the seacoast not long after the whole 31” debacle and my jackpot in Methuen took over his measurement in Wilmington which I fully trusted...but I got a kick out of it on the spotter page. 

Still have yet too see a warning criteria event on the NH seacoast and I’m thinking of moving north once my lease is up end of January. Still holding out hope this delivers up here. 

You wouldn’t have to move very far NW of your current location to be in a better snow zone.

[JC-CT]

10 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I went back to MD for the best possible 10 days, it looks like. Latest GFS is about 20" here. Nothing going on in NNE right now.

yes but the townspeople of bumbfk NH have revolted and burned the king's castle to the ground while he was away on vacation

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

15 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ya, there will be shifts but SW CT just off the coast has looked good for many many runs in a row and that probably won't change soon.  Danbury Ct has about same latitude as Newport RI and decent elevation in spots... Just lookin ha. 

There’s some decent elevated spots in wct. Plenty of choices just don’t jinx it yet ha. 

[PhineasC]

Just now, JC-CT said:

yes but the townspeople of bumbfk NH have revolted and burned the king's castle to the ground while he was away on vacation

I have been watching them on my cams. Milling around the place but no burning or looting yet.

[Fozz]

13 minutes ago, Pluffmud said:

Last year I moved back to RI from SC after living there for 10 years. I moved there because I thought I was sick of the snow here but after putting up with bugs the size of birds, hurricanes and humidity to melt your brain I realized snow ain’t so bad so I came back last year and couldn’t wait for our first snowstorm last year. Sadly disappointed because here in RI it was a snow drought last year. So I’m pumped for my first official nor’easter that hopefully won’t disappoint. Bring it on!

Last winter was my first in RI, and it was a big disappointment. We had one decent storm in early December (10"), but the rest of the season was completely forgettable, and afterwards the only thing I really enjoyed was my ski trips to NNE, which did get some good storms.

I'm much more hopeful for this winter.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

12 minutes ago, Pluffmud said:

Last year I moved back to RI from SC after living there for 10 years. I moved there because I thought I was sick of the snow here but after putting up with bugs the size of birds, hurricanes and humidity to melt your brain I realized snow ain’t so bad so I came back last year and couldn’t wait for our first snowstorm last year. Sadly disappointed because here in RI it was a snow drought last year. So I’m pumped for my first official nor’easter that hopefully won’t disappoint. Bring it on!

Nice. Welcome back. The SE has it’s benefits but weather ain’t one. 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nice. Welcome back. The SE has it’s benefits but weather ain’t one. 

the ball flies in that heat though

[rimetree]

9 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said:

Haha agreed! I think I moved to the seacoast not long after the whole 31” debacle and my jackpot in Methuen took over his measurement in Wilmington which I fully trusted...but I got a kick out of it on the spotter page. 

Still have yet too see a warning criteria event on the NH seacoast and I’m thinking of moving north once my lease is up end of January. Still holding out hope this delivers up here. 

Early December last year was decent...17" or so in that one event with about 27" for the month. Then it went downhill. The past two years have been under-performing but most winters are decent with good latitude for SWFEs and great coastal blizzards. Being close to the water can hurt sometimes but not always. Where in Hampton are you? I grew up in N. Hampton.

[JC-CT]

@RUNNAWAYICEBERG when I was in high school I played in an AJGA qualifier for the junior us open. There was this kid my age named Webb Simpson who was a big deal, one of the top 10 ranked juniors in the country, who came up from North Carolina to play in the qualifier I played in, because all the best players knew that the seasonal golfers in the Northeast suck @ss. It was at bethpage red, I shot something like 82, he shot 71 and won the qualifier. Not sure what ever happened to him.

[Typhoon Tip]

For concept/philosophy I'm actually intrigued by whatever the Monday system does ...

It's contribution to a 50/50 construct has been noted ... but not for that reason. The N/stream is a wild card both tomorrow and Wednesday ...

If the NAM is right about its NW positions/translation axis of this first system this week, the 'synoptic conveyor' hasn't really changed or entered a pattern modality.  The next may obey a similar instruction as it is passing thru the same scaffold synopstics.. Both systems are really in the same PNAP orientation ...

I still believe/think that in this particular circumstance(s) this week, proper sampling offer subtle influence flip regions into more contention across narrowed corridors...so a slightly increased potency in wave mechanics outta the E Pac is likely to mean a quasi-Miller B scooting 150 vs 75 ME SE of ISP and in a fast atmosphere that's really 2" versus about 9 at Worcester ( or more meso band depending)...

But, as said ..that's a general sort of philosophical rule if you will - if the relay comes in more powerful it's going to torque the flow into more S/W roll out ridging and this thing'll likely end up both slightly slower and turning Polarward leaving the EC at more angle -... and we're getting more CCB expansion in that case.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

37 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You’ll see a lot of snow. 

Lol you are not too far from me. 

[Greg]

18 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said:

Haha agreed! I think I moved to the seacoast not long after the whole 31” debacle and my jackpot in Methuen took over his measurement in Wilmington which I fully trusted...but I got a kick out of it on the spotter page. 

Still have yet too see a warning criteria event on the NH seacoast and I’m thinking of moving north once my lease is up end of January. Still holding out hope this delivers up here. 

Yeah, the Weather Department doesn't like that method of measuring, as you can see it in the final ground count that they put on for the public. They usually go, as I alluded to many times, with the COOP Data and first order stations. This is where it's usually done every 12 or 24 hours which it allows it to settle a little more. Especially fluffy snow which tends to sublimate rather quickly after the now truly stops falling. They do put our reports in as long as they are within reason to the surrounding reports / observation area.

[wxeyeNH]

24 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I went back to MD for the best possible 10 days, it looks like. Latest GFS is about 20" here. Nothing going on in NNE right now.

Trader.  Boring week up here

[Hoth]

5 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

@RUNNAWAYICEBERG when I was in high school I played in an AJGA qualifier for the junior us open. There was this kid my age named Webb Simpson who was a big deal, one of the top 10 ranked juniors in the country, who came up from North Carolina to play in the qualifier I played in, because all the best players knew that the seasonal golfers in the Northeast suck @ss. It was at bethpage red, I shot something like 82, he shot 71 and won the qualifier. Not sure what ever happened to him.

I assume you're being facetious.