JB_Wchstr Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, yoda said: If I have to manage with 16” I guess I could. Would like to see that power streak extended NE though 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Anybody gonna stay up another 70-80 minutes for the Euro? Normally I wouldn’t on a day 5 potential system, but this one seems to be a little different?? Only if it goes another 70-80 mi north. It should be a full house for the 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: Not really. With it showing temps in the mid to high teens here during the worst of the storm, you would expect higher ratios. The 10-1 here is for 10" from the Wed storm, but the Kuchie has 17". It's ridiculous at this range but it can be too cold aloft for best ratios. Surface temps also don't determine ratios. I remember numerous occasions where I had 10-1 at best sand flakes living at Penn State with temps in the low teens. Dendrites are -12 to -18C, colder than that also hurts ratios. But any snow map at this range especially is ridiculous, at this range you only care about the pattern coming in and overall evolution. Looks good to me which is what I care about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 I’ve stayed up for the full euro suite including eps every night since I retired..lol. And the first month was daylight savings time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Not really. With it showing temps in the mid to high teens here during the worst of the storm, you would expect higher ratios. The 10-1 here is for 10" from the Wed storm, but the Kuchie has 17". It’s silly. Fun to rub one out over then we move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, SnowEMass said: If I have to manage with 16” I guess I could. Would like to see that power streak shifted NE though The overall evolution is what we should care about at this range. Any snow map is eye candy as the storm is happening (got burned on the last weekend storm myself) much less 120hrs out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Not really. With it showing temps in the mid to high teens here during the worst of the storm, you would expect higher ratios. The 10-1 here is for 10" from the Wed storm, but the Kuchie has 17". I'll be the turd in the punchbowl. Cold storms are where the Kuchera ratios fail most. It's designed for near freezing cases, to account for mixing and lower ratios, but there is actually no limit to how high the ratio can get as temps below 500 mb get colder. And we know that snow ratio doesn't improve linearly with cooling temps. Take the mid to high teens, let's say average of 18. Let's assume that's the max temp below 500 mb too. That means Kuchera is like 18:1. That's not a realistic ratio for the duration of an event. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, jm1220 said: It's ridiculous at this range but it can be too cold aloft for best ratios. Surface temps also don't determine ratios. I remember numerous occasions where I had 10-1 at best sand flakes living at Penn State with temps in the low teens. Dendrites are -12 to -18C, colder than that also hurts ratios. But any snow map at this range especially is ridiculous, at this range you only care about the pattern coming in and overall evolution. Looks good to me which is what I care about. Excellent points. I just think what we can take from any/all of this, is the potential with a set up like this potentially shows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 9 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Not really. With it showing temps in the mid to high teens here during the worst of the storm, you would expect higher ratios. The 10-1 here is for 10" from the Wed storm, but the Kuchie has 17". Ratios aren't determined by low level temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: I’ve stayed up for the full euro suite including eps every night since I retired..lol. And the first month was daylight savings time. Ahh, retirement must be wonderful. Hopefully Someday I can enjoy that life. Nice Jerry. Maybe You can give the PBP in an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, WinterWolf said: Excellent points. I just think what we can take from any/all of this, is the potential with a set up like this potentially shows? Yep. It's not a Jan 1996 or Feb 1983 verbatim by any means but a strong trough/Shortwave coming in against a reinforced 50-50, blocking setup screams potential. Maybe one concern to me is the PNA ridge not being ideal. You look at those storms, they had a sharp PNA ridge over ID to AZ. Also the blocking doesn't seem too stout and the flow is progressive so not as long lasting a system. But it could be a really nice system for many people IF the evolution stays this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 It’s nice to see posts and enthusiasm in check. Congrats everyone on a fun weekend of tracking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Anybody gonna stay up another 70-80 minutes for the Euro? Normally I wouldn’t on a day 5 potential system, but this one seems to be a little different?? I am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Ahh, retirement must be wonderful. Hopefully Someday I can enjoy that life. Nice Jerry. You can give the PBP in an hour. It’s an amazing time to look forward to! I actually have a side gig of about 8 hours/week and I can generally choose when. I bet a lot of folks are up tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: I am Ok..I’ll be awaiting your take Officer Snow88. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, weathafella said: It’s an amazing time to look forward to! I actually have a side gig of about 8 hours/week and I can generally choose when. I bet a lot of folks are up tonight! I’m up. Let’s keep the hits coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 The Mon system isn't nothing either especially in SE CT/RI/Cape Cod. Could be a quick few inches or so if it comes in heavy (my backyard's first chance to get on the board-so far T here this winter). Temps are marginal though so it's another one where the weenie maps will be overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I mean...was there any doubt? Lol. Every once in a while I’ll stay up when we’re within a couple days, and then it sh*ts the bed and I’m like, why did I just waste precious hrs of sleep? But being the weekend it’s all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 13 minutes ago, weathafella said: I actually have a side gig laying pipe of about 8 hours/week and I can generally choose when. I bet a lot of folks are up tonight! Jerry Jerry Jerry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 wheres our boy snowjob? was that his name? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 For the 28 years I consider La Ninas since 1930-31, Philadelphia has never had more than 12.8 inches of snow in December. Doesn't mean it's impossible, but any models showing that much or more are likely too high. I can see on Weather.com they have 5-8" during the day and then 5-8" during the night on 12/16. I would bet pretty strongly on a different evolution of the storm for the Northeast, just from knowing those stats in Philadelphia. One possible kink in the storm evolution would be the system out here that gets to the NE around 12/14, it's probably going to look somewhat different than depicted once it exits New Mexico. It seems to be trending south and stronger with time. For Boston, NYC, and Philly, the highest snow totals for 12/12-12/31 from 1931-2019 are: Boston: 25.4" (2007) New York City: 29.6" (1947) Philadelphia: 24.1" (2009) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 UK drops feet. So it’s only a matter of when the rug gets pulled out from underneath, not if. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Euro time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherlvr Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Well looks like my coating .022” for the year here at Webster lake will stay intact. We got no snow from the last major storm and nothing in October and finally a coating from the clipper. Though with that strong high and dry cold I don’t see that disturbance on Monday or We’d night making it past the SNH boarder. I might be wrong though I just don’t see how those two lows can make it up.here without being shredded for both storms. Especially for Wed and Thurs since that high and dry cold air will be very strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Monday is juicy but probably too mild on euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Cooking a good one at 90 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 19 minutes ago, raindancewx said: For the 28 years I consider La Ninas since 1930-31, Philadelphia has never had more than 12.8 inches of snow in December. Doesn't mean it's impossible, but any models showing that much or more are likely too high. I can see on Weather.com they have 5-8" during the day and then 5-8" during the night on 12/16. I would bet pretty strongly on a different evolution of the storm for the Northeast, just from knowing those stats in Philadelphia. One possible kink in the storm evolution would be the system out here that gets to the NE around 12/14, it's probably going to look somewhat different than depicted once it exits New Mexico. It seems to be trending south and stronger with time. For Boston, NYC, and Philly, the highest snow totals for 12/12-12/31 from 1931-2019 are: Boston: 25.4" (2007) New York City: 29.6" (1947) Philadelphia: 24.1" (2009) Agree...I think this primary holds on longer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 27 minutes ago, raindancewx said: For the 28 years I consider La Ninas since 1930-31, Philadelphia has never had more than 12.8 inches of snow in December. Doesn't mean it's impossible, but any models showing that much or more are likely too high. I can see on Weather.com they have 5-8" during the day and then 5-8" during the night on 12/16. I would bet pretty strongly on a different evolution of the storm for the Northeast, just from knowing those stats in Philadelphia. One possible kink in the storm evolution would be the system out here that gets to the NE around 12/14, it's probably going to look somewhat different than depicted once it exits New Mexico. It seems to be trending south and stronger with time. For Boston, NYC, and Philly, the highest snow totals for 12/12-12/31 from 1931-2019 are: Boston: 25.4" (2007) New York City: 29.6" (1947) Philadelphia: 24.1" (2009) Dec 2009 was a Nina? 09-10 was a Nino. The 12/19/09 storm was a Nino-evolution storm from what I know. Not that I complain about that storm I had about 20" from the 12/19/09 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Euro really slows this bad boy down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 No, I just added in the top snowfalls at the bottom for the time frame. Just now, jm1220 said: Dec 2009 was a Nina? 09-10 was a Nino. The 12/19/09 storm was a Nino-evolution storm from what I know. Not that I complain about that storm I had about 20" from the 12/19/09 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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