Greg Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, OSUmetstud said: Idk, im hoping for further north solutions so that I get into some action Friday. Getting a SWFE now for 5 to 7 inches or so. what about the monster for Tuesday? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie finally more north The PNA being neutral with an - in process - negatively escaping NAO ( ends up +1 and change by D7!) ...is pretty damn indicative of a longitudinally 'stretched' field and the GFS ..too much? Here's the problem with determinism in summary ( from me ): 1 ... the GFS has a W-E bias as a base-line model problem ...and in a pattern that is in fact, biased in that regard ... that, for lack of better word might be "enabling" the GFS - and it's thus too much. I suspect it is over doing the west east latitude bottling of this system; which it could still be right if the next 18 or so hours relay paltry momentum off the Pac... 2 ... the sensitivity for this particular system appears to be mainly in situ to the S/W mechanics, itself... Assuming that we are not ( and it seems likely we won't at this time ) be getting much positive/constructive larger scaled pattern feed back, due to the flat PNAP structure of the flow...that leaves the S/W itself. If it comes in stronger...it will roll-out S/W ridging in nuanced quantities...but that would transitively mean a N totality of events in that case. The confluence and attending high are presently holding proxy on the depiction from the GFS but ...meaningless if the GFS native W-E bias happens to not see the real strength of the wave mechanics because of ... improficient assimilation - I've been saying all along, this entire scenario is unusually susceptible to subtle and nuanced variance... 3 to 5 kts in the wind core could mean a lot .. The other aspect, on #2 abv... I am noticing that the 500 mb wind max is actually coming of in a lag feed - it's not coming into the west like a slug... Such that we started pulling the wind momentum into the grids on the 18z ( where available...) but you look closely...the full/total momentum of the wave isn't fully absorbed until 12z tomorrow... As this relays in that time, cycles "might" alter. ... Anyway, I think 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 26 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Nice look S of pike for tomorrow on 18z NAM 12km and 3km ya , especially i-95 and south of 84.. precursor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 It’s slower than other models also.. looking closer looks like this would make everyone south of Manchester happy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: Could easily scoot east Not on that solution for you. Bent back WF at H7 is already near BOS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: what about the monster for Tuesday? Rain and wind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Bostonseminole said: Could easily scoot east That and to me it looks much safer bet for decent snow S of RT 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Percolating 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said: That shit is closed off at H5 at the perfect moment Why it gotta be NAM? lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: Could easily scoot east Yes but the damage is done and we’re already in the goods into cne. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: Rain and wind? Oh, where is the snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Yes but the damage is done and we’re already in the goods into cne. OK, Didn’t look that far north to me but I’m also quickly glancing at my cell phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: OK, Didn’t look that far north to me but I’m also quickly glancing at my cell phone. Yeah if that does not scoot east then it’s a massive hit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Not on that solution for you. Bent back WF at H7 is already near BOS. That would croak all of us in future panels 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Parts of west/central Maryland and Pennsylvania see upwards of 24" of snow on the 18z NAM through 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Here is your 84 Hour NAM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Yes but the damage is done and we’re already in the goods into cne. to NH border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Oh, where is the snow? Coastal Labrador. It's a beast 50/50 windstorm, not a snowstorm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Greg said: Here is your 84 Hour NAM Toss 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Greg said: Here is your 84 Hour NAM Lovely. A thing of beauty for SNE. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Now if the other models would come on board...but probably not like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 looks like the NAM has slightly less of HP press into NNE than the gfs at 6z Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 It is the 84 NAM though 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: looks like the NAM has slightly less of HP press into NNE than the gfs at 6z Thursday Maybe, but it's still has a 1037mb High but just retreats further north on this model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, weathafella said: It is the 84 NAM though Agreed. But still better than it showing a nothing burger...at which point we’d say the same thing-it’s the 84hr NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, weathafella said: It is the 84 NAM though Oh, I agree weatheafella. Posted just to make sure all the players are on the board, that's all. Let the model biases commence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, SnowEMass said: Now if the other models would come on board...but probably not like that What other ‘models’ need to come on board? You must mean one model...gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I’ve put my radar in full weenie mode. Planning for now to drive to Chicago leaving 12/23 arriving probably 12/24 unless we can wake up early enough on the 23rd which is doubtful. Leave Chicago the 29th to return home. Will hope for a Cleveland bomb while we’re there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: What other ‘models’ need to come on board? You must mean one model...gfs. I meant come in that tucked, that north, that slow and that juicy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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