40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Hoth said: It did to a degree. It was chiefly modeled as a deep MA storm, then gradually shifted up to jack NYC area in the final day or so. Boston ended up with 6-8" when we were looking at cirrus for most of the lead up model runs. Yes, I stand corrected. I was in grad school then and checked out when I knew I would ne brushed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: He’s just being a massive weenie. Rather be a massive weenie than a micro weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 To me the only thing that messes up a potential KU in this event is the trailing shortwave that enters the longwave trough as the storm gets going off the NC coastline and begins to track northward. The trailing northern stream shortwave dampens the trough as it goes negative tilt. This makes the trough less amplified and therefore more progressive. We can still get a major snowfall from this setup, it will just not be the near crippling potential that we saw a few days back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You are like 5 miles away from getting a death band that run. Lol. First "death band" siting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 The Jan 2016 Blizzard was forecasted to give Cape Cod a sunny to cloudy day 24 hours out. Every six hour update, the NWS began forecasting more and more snowfall. I ended up with 15.5 inches of snow, which missed my top ten events of my 31 years of life. Top three events are all 24" plus, while top five is 18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, weathafella said: I thought there was not much change and qpf and snow totals quite similar Yeah it was similar but definitely a little bit squeezed compared to 00z. I get that everyone is dying for a huge system, but people need to remember this is like 90-96 hours out still. We’re not even using the NAM/RGEM yet...it feels like this should be about 48 hours out given how long we’ve been tracking it but it still has a long ways to go. Never any guarantees but I still like the idea of bumping a bit north given the deep shortwave associated with this. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 46 minutes ago, weathafella said: Snows all day Thursday It snowed all day last weekend too.....didn't work out so great. lol 31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I still think it will end up edging north, but going to need to sweat it out. Are you still planning on your 1st call today? It was a lot more clear yesterday. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I was tracking the 2016 blizzard in Atlantic city. I pulled over to a rest stop to check the serfs and it was showing 2 inches of liquid for NYC. That was the start of a north trend . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 42 minutes ago, DomNH said: Gross. I’ll take cirrus over a nuisance advisory event. You and I are rooting for northern death band and like 18:1 rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: I was tracking the 2016 blizzard in Atlantic city. I pulled over to a rest stop to check the serfs and it was showing 2 inches of liquid for NYC. That was the start of a north trend . how are they looking for this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 The 2016 storm was a very disappointing storm here. Pure Pixie dust with very little accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: how are they looking for this storm? Haven't checked them in years but I will post the 15z when they come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: Eps is solid! Remember the GFS has led Jerry. Caution. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: U beat me to it. It was a solid jump north on the ec/uk the night of, near whiffing CT and s ri and mass then a huge jog N pushed us into 12+ amounts. Warnings hoisted last minute while it was already snowing in NYC. Just as will said didn't make it far enough N to your area last minute, still think u got like 6 tho no? Yeah I remember that one very well. The NAM led the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I was tracking the 2016 blizzard in Atlantic city. I pulled over to a rest stop to check the serfs and it was showing 2 inches of liquid for NYC. That was the start of a north trend . Yep NAM and SREFs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Of course the SREFs ended up overdoing it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I'm a bit fearful now. Would rather be further south. We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I was tracking the 2016 blizzard in Atlantic city. I pulled over to a rest stop to check the serfs and it was showing 2 inches of liquid for NYC. That was the start of a north trend . Did you flash your high beams at this NJ rest stop? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: Remember the GFS has led Jerry. Caution. It has not. It is on it's own. Well...gfs and Benedict Arnold are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, DotRat_Wx said: I'm a bit fearful now. Would rather be further south. We'll see At least half the board would as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: Remember the GFS has led Jerry. Caution. I dunno like two other models trended north at 12z. GFS even bumped slightly north even though it is still the furthest south model. Euro trended slightly south. I’m not seeing any sort of golden nugget here by the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it was similar but definitely a little bit squeezed compared to 00z. I get that everyone is dying for a huge system, but people need to remember this is like 90-96 hours out still. We’re not even using the NAM/RGEM yet...it feels like this should be about 48 hours out given how long we’ve been tracking it but it still has a long ways to go. Never any guarantees but I still like the idea of bumping a bit north given the deep shortwave associated with this. Long ways indeed, though the degree of model consistency at this point is noteworthy in my view.... but yeah. Things bad could happen to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 How about this: there's maybe a 20% chance the GFS is right. 1 out of 5. 2 out of 10. Nobody knows for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Until all guidance starts shoving this east and pretty much skunking the region....there is NO leading by the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 There’s a lot of folks drinking this afternoon 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: How about this: there's maybe a 20% chance the GFS is right. 1 out of 5. 2 out of 10. Nobody knows for sure. Absolutely. It is certainly possible. I still like a 70/30 euro/gfs blend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: There’s a lot of folks drinking this afternoon Why would we stop just because it's the afternoon? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Of course the SREFs ended up overdoing it NAM too.. RPM was the most reasonable and surprisingly run to run consistent . That was rpm storm I think 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mothman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There’s a lot of folks drinking this afternoon What’s your forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Absolutely. It is certainly possible. I still like my 70/30 euro/gfs blend. All guidance seems to have come around to the sharp exit stage left. What latitude that happens is key for SNE and CNE. NNE not looking great but still time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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