ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Pretty sharp cutoff... sinks another 75-100 south and it’s an inch or two of arctic sand Sure and if it zonks north 100 miles you might be worrying about ptype issues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: How the hell is TAN losing it's wiggle room on that run? lol. You're like smack in the middle of the EURO snow prog. Debbying is an indispensible part of his process. That's how he books 20" storms every two years without fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: You don’t look at snow maps. The whole setup screams snows well into NNE. Look deeper. Past snowmaps I get what you're doing, but this absolute monster high to the N/NE as the "whole set up" screams the opposite of what you say, ha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: I love this place No need to sweat the details if you're on the edge at this range. You'd think the low did a U-turn at Ocean City with some of these posts. This is a classic north trend storm. It happens every .... single.... time in these Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Pretty sharp cutoff... sinks another 75-100 south and it’s an inch or two of arctic sand It's a solid run for both of us... 12"+. The preponderance of the guidance basically agrees and several runs have actually improved compared to 0z. Only real exception is the GFS. Yes we have a strong 50/50 and 1030 mb high, but unless we get early February 2010 confluence, I think being fringed like the GFS shows is unlikely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Graupler Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 The models are certainly acting exactly how I anticipated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 18 minutes ago, Hoth said: Debbying is an indispensible part of his process. That's how he books 20" storms every two years without fail. Well yes, there's that, and his measuring technique along with some stick slanting involved. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I'm all in for a siggy snowstorm for my zone. 8" or 16" still TBD but you can't have a better signal. If this craps out, I'll sign off for the season. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: I love this place No need to sweat the details if you're on the edge at this range. You'd think the low did a U-turn at Ocean City with some of these posts. Might be getting my entire 19-20 snowfall in 6 hours. We deserve it after the last two yrs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: How the hell is TAN losing it's wiggle room on that run? lol. You're like smack in the middle of the EURO snow prog. Yea no kidding. This is pretty much exactly what he should want at this stage for being on the Cape in mid December. One, rare time I wouldn’t be worrying about p type issues either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I'm all in for a siggy snowstorm for my zone. 8" or 16" still TBD but you can't have a better signal. If this craps out, I'll sign off for the season. You got some room to wiggle and you like it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: You got some room to wiggle and you like it Of course. It's pretty rare for this area to have such wiggle room. We're usually on the edge whether its S N E or W. Hope many can get it on it though but we know there will be those that can't. Spin the bottle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This is a classic north trend storm. It happens every .... single.... time in these 2016 did not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 As I alluded to earlier. If you take a look at the sounding for let's say Lowell, MA based strictly on the Euro, 0.7" of liquid verbatim would translate to about 11". Not a forecast by any means but just giving people a heads up. Not everybody will have these types of ratios either. The more you get to the far South Coast, Cape and Islands the more normal 10-1 ratios you will find. Obviously, more quantity but less fluff if you will. All this of course pending the exact final track of this potential storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Meh. Too far E to get good snows most storms. Too far N for these S of the Pike deals. Thinking moderate 3-6/4-8 deal here. Door quickly closing on anything more substantial for those in NSNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: 2016 did not. No worries even up to Dendy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 19 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: why do you even post during the winter? just post during summer months. I generally disappear from here in the summer, except for a few cumulonimbus or lightning posts when I lived in Iowa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: 2016 did not. Yes it did. Just wasn’t enough for us. 4 days out it was giving NYC cirrus clouds. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: 2016 did not. It did for the south coast, we were forecast to get nothing 36 hours before ended up with 15. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said: Meh. Too far E to get good snows most storms. Too far N for these S of the Pike deals. Thinking moderate 3-6/4-8 deal here. Door quickly closing on anything more substantial for those in NSNE. You are like 5 miles away from getting a death band that run. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: It did for the south coast, we were forecast to get nothing 36 hours before ended up with 15. Yup remember that one well. We don't need it where we are as we are right on the mix line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 2016 did not. January 2016 was going to be another Feb 2010 for NYC, until it shifted just far enough north to get them HECS totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes it did. Just wasn’t enough for us. 4 days out it was giving NYC cirrus clouds. If Metheun ain’t Jack, it ain’t snow 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 2016 did not. It did to a degree. It was chiefly modeled as a deep MA storm, then gradually shifted up to jack NYC area in the final day or so. Boston ended up with 6-8" when we were looking at cirrus for most of the lead up model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 EPS not as crazy as 06z (no surprise given the OP was a little south as well) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Eps is solid! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yes it did. Just wasn’t enough for us. 4 days out it was giving NYC cirrus clouds. U beat me to it. It was a solid jump north on the ec/uk the night of, near whiffing CT and s ri and mass then a huge jog N pushed us into 12+ amounts. Warnings hoisted last minute while it was already snowing in NYC. Just as will said didn't make it far enough N to your area last minute, still think u got like 6 tho no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Need that jet stream to just sharpen up a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes it did. Just wasn’t enough for us. 4 days out it was giving NYC cirrus clouds. I must have checked out at that point lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I thought there was not much change and qpf and snow totals quite similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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