jm1220 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: If you are anywhere, especially CNE on south you are in the game. West....east....all in. I find it hard to think this doesn’t tick NW. With crazy confluence like this ahead of it, how far NW though? I can see some room for that sure but this setup looks pretty classic to me for a pretty big hit at least Philly on NE. And enough of a miller A element to it for perhaps DC too. I know plenty of time for things to go wrong but to me overall a nice evolution for now at least. And I'm thinking this could be one of those heartbreak storms where it goes from 12" to 2" in 50 miles or less because of the incoming dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, RDRY said: Gotcha. The GFS 500 chart just doesn't look like a classic western-CNE hit. The good dynamics are shunted south and east. This is where you want the gfs to be at this lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, weathafella said: I think it ticks over or inside BM. yeah pattern does not scream this escaping east but also not allot of room to move north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: I think it ticks over or inside BM. Fine by me. Contrary to popular belief NYC's best storms often head just inside the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, jm1220 said: With crazy confluence like this ahead of it, how far NW though? I can see some room for that sure but this setup looks pretty classic to me for a pretty big hit at least Philly on NE. And enough of a miller A element to it for perhaps DC too. I know plenty of time for things to go wrong but to me overall a nice evolution for now at least. And I'm thinking this could be one of those heartbreak storms where it goes from 12" to 2" in 50 miles or less because of the incoming dry air. Given the air mass in place and the setup this thing can basically track just east of Montauk and the only places that would mix would be the Islands and maybe parts of the Cape 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Cmc bombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Canadian showing the H5 pretty strong here...you can see how this can get snow pretty far NW without too much more trending 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: With crazy confluence like this ahead of it, how far NW though? I can see some room for that sure but this setup looks pretty classic to me for a pretty big hit at least Philly on NE. And enough of a miller A element to it for perhaps DC too. I know plenty of time for things to go wrong but to me overall a nice evolution for now at least. And I'm thinking this could be one of those heartbreak storms where it goes from 12" to 2" in 50 miles or less because of the incoming dry air. That s/w as modeled is strong. The wave is fairly far offshore and likely tied to baroclinic processes with the help of some positive vorticity advection from the s/w. So, if this s/w were to be even stronger, it may bump a little NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 When d5 weenie porn is on, she can wait. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Please do not trend all that much northwest, let Cape Cod bask in the glory for this upcoming week, and then after Christmas we can get our interior snow event 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Please do not trend all that much northwest, let Cape Cod bask in the glory for this upcoming week, and then after Christmas we can get our interior snow event Nah. You get the post Christmas paste Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Nah. You get the post Christmas paste 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Please do not trend all that much northwest, let Cape Cod bask in the glory for this upcoming week, and then after Christmas we can get our interior snow event We don’t need it NW. We need it NE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Nah. You get the post Christmas paste Nah man, this is mine, lol! Man whatever happens is bonus, Anything over 4" would be more than a single event the last two winters for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, SnowEMass said: We don’t need it NW. We need it NE! yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 GEFS does not look that much different from the OP to my untrained eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 6 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I don’t think there is much of a chance for a SE drift. That s/w on the euro is a beast. That has a good chance of tugging the low a little NW on guidance. Big spread on the north side of ensemble systems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 13 minutes ago, jm1220 said: With crazy confluence like this ahead of it, how far NW though? I can see some room for that sure but this setup looks pretty classic to me for a pretty big hit at least Philly on NE. And enough of a miller A element to it for perhaps DC too. I know plenty of time for things to go wrong but to me overall a nice evolution for now at least. And I'm thinking this could be one of those heartbreak storms where it goes from 12" to 2" in 50 miles or less because of the incoming dry air. It’s def a miller A on some of these runs where the S/W digs down and then shears a bit. You never get a strong primary into the Oh valley on those runs. I’m still a bit leery though of that considering how potent the shortwave is and going neutral pretty early on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Tug a snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: When weenie porn is on, she can wait. Just repeat that to her verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Ukie at 120. By 144 it’s way northeast so we’d need to see 132 but this looks more NW than the more sheered 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Cmc kuchie clown is very silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It’s def a miller A on some of these runs where the S/W digs down and then shears a bit. You never get a strong primary into the Oh valley on those runs. I’m still a bit leery though of that considering how potent the shortwave is and going neutral pretty early on. Yep, definitely looks like a situation where it tries to cut north to Cape May and then we see how strong the confluence is and it gets forced east? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 That uncle run isn’t a whiff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Cmc kuchie clown is very silly. I have to now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Cmc kuchie clown is very silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Cmc kuchie clown is very silly. Even the normal 10:1 map looks just like December 2009 in the mid-Atlantic. Absolutely crazy run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Cmc kuchie clown is very silly. Not really. With it showing temps in the mid to high teens here during the worst of the storm, you would expect higher ratios. The 10-1 here is for 10" from the Wed storm, but the Kuchie has 17". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Anybody gonna stay up another 70-80 minutes for the Euro? Normally I wouldn’t on a day 5 potential system, but this one seems to be a little different?? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Dear lord....weenie is engorged! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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