JC-CT Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, jbenedet said: 1034 HP anchored over Southern Quebec...might even be sunny in most of NNE... That's the feature where it seems like the GFS may have been overdoing it compared to most other guidance, re how far south and strong that cold pushes. We will see if it corrects here shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said: I'm rooting for the deform band to sit over my head personally. Ask and the 00z NAM shall provide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Pope all in on the gfs. GL to you. And you I guess on the EPS...you’re in a *much* better spot than me. This is a cloud forecast up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: That's the feature where it seems like the GFS may have been overdoing it compared to most other guidance, re how far south and strong that cold pushes. We will see if it corrects here shortly. Although the CMC was pretty cold too. To be honest I've stopped looking at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Thanks fellas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, jbenedet said: And you I guess on the EPS...you’re in a *much* better spot than me. This is a cloud forecast up here. Yeah...it’s clouds at 96hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: That's the feature where it seems like the GFS may have been overdoing it compared to most other guidance, re how far south and strong that cold pushes. We will see if it corrects here shortly. The teleconnections support the GFS, imo. Where the arctic is tappable it will be effin cold. And the heart of it just so happens to be closest to NNE at the storms closest approach. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, jbenedet said: And you I guess on the EPS...you’re in a *much* better spot than me. This is a cloud forecast up here. I don’t trust it with EC coastals in a blocky type regime. Doesn’t mean the eps is dead nuts but I’ll keep weighting the two at 70/30 favoring the eps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 How many people will truly be surprised if the GFS and The Pope is correct???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: The teleconnections support the GFS, imo. Where the arctic is tappable it will be effin cold. And the heart of it just so happens to be closest to NNE at the storms closest approach. This sounds a lot like a Jimmy post. Jimmy...is that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Great Snow 1717 said: How many people will truly be surprised if the GFS and The Pope is correct???? Nobody I hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said: How many people will truly be surprised if the GFS and The Pope is correct???? I would not bet against that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I dunno, but it doesn't seem like overwhelming blocking. 1035 in Quebec is strong but.... Seems like the keys for us up here are: 1. strong shortwave will tend to try to tuck and will be muscular pushing north. wasn't there a 1050 high on top of '78? 2. if things are on the slower side, more time for the 50-50 to move since it isn't a stuck feature. I don't think a 1035 without a stationery 50-50 and a strong GL block is enough to just shove it out. However, I am weeniologist... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 BOX looks like they upped their forecast for tomorrow to a general 1-2 south of the pike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: I would not bet against that Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yeah...it’s clouds at 96hr. I had said yesterday I was waiting for the Pope to get excited before jumping in. Well, the Pope essentially reinstated meatless Fridays. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, jbenedet said: The teleconnections support the GFS, imo. Where the arctic is tappable it will be effin cold. And the heart of it just so happens to be closest to NNE at the storms closest approach. Sometimes you almost just have to go with history on these things if you look at the EPS/NAM solution it would indicate New York City goes snow-rain-snow. When have we ever seen a storm with this type of set up do that in New York City? Either they stay all snow or they go snow to rain and stay rain and does anyone think that this could stay far enough west where they flipped to rain and that’s it? I just don’t see it given the pattern so I’m leaning in the direction of something splitting the difference of the GEFS EPS. I feel confident both models are too far west and east respectively Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 12z ICON is a huge hit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, moneypitmike said: I had said yesterday I was waiting for the Pope to get excited before jumping in. Well, the Pope essentially reinstated meatless Fridays. But poultry doesn't count ha ha. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: I dunno, but it doesn't seem like overwhelming blocking. 1035 in Quebec is strong but.... Seems like the keys for us up here are: 1. strong shortwave will tend to try to tuck and will be muscular pushing north. wasn't there a 1050 high on top of '78? 2. if things are on the slower side, more time for the 50-50 to move since it isn't a stuck feature. I don't think a 1035 without a stationery 50-50 and a strong GL block is enough to just shove it out. However, I am weeniologist... Good questions. My Basis—H5 shows lack of downstream ridging across guidance over eastern CONUS. At same time, the surface Canadian HP appears more sprawling/building rather than retreating... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 12z ICON is a huge hit Ehh... I wouldn’t go that far. Looks good pike south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 12z ICON is a huge hit What’s with the two lows? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Good questions. My Basis—H5 shows lack of downstream ridging across guidance over eastern CONUS. At same time, the surface Canadian HP appears more sprawling/building rather than retreating... seems like a reasonable answer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 RGEM looks similar to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Which run will the GFS cave to the EURO on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 from Walt Drag in the NYC forum re the NAM (his comments bolded at bottom): Report post Posted 21 minutes ago 39 minutes ago, bluewave said: The NAM actually looks like it could be one of the EPS members more than the GEFS. Absolutely! The questions continue going forward, will it hold? I took a look at the 500MB pattern at 84 hours...modeling a 140 kt jet up over Quebec Wednesday evening and plenty of sw flow back to OHIO at 500MB. I'm pretty sure this says northern solution. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 12 minutes ago, PowderBeard said: Which run will the GFS cave to the EURO on.... This one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: This one. What I was thinking too lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 15 minutes ago, PowderBeard said: Which run will the GFS cave to the EURO on.... You mean the Euro will cave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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