JC-CT Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Also, BOX knows their shit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, JC-CT said: I'm not going to speak for Will, I'm not that dumb lol. There is some blocking for sure, but it's not a classic NAO. I think the numerical forecasts are spitting it out as neutral overall. Just saying what Will said. There is blocking or we wouldn’t be here at this moment. Why do You think this thing isn’t running into Buffalo? Thanks for the replies, but BOX’s idea of no blocking is not sound in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Also, BOX knows their shit. I agree. But to say no blocking isn’t accurate. We’ll leave it there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 NAO on cpc calf is like -1 for the event. It’s not your massive -3 SD block from 2010 or 2011 but it’s definitely a -NAO. The 50/50 low is exceptionally strong so that sort of make the block “act” stronger than it really is on a temporary basis. It’s not creating a traffic jam slowing the flow down to a crawl though. The 50/50 low is still moving and the storm steadily moves out instead of rotting for 36 hours. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea Mahky Mahk. Chris knows. Amx is spoiled. Flooded with knowledge. We’ve got probably the best collection of ne snowfall expertise on this forum, anywhere, and it is concentrated in the New England sub forum. And then we’ve also got the best weenieologists 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 The ridge near the Davis Straits certainly doesn’t move IMO, so it does act like a block. The 50/50 low does move out like Will said, but it does its job. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: NAO on cpc calf is like -1 for the event. It’s not your massive -3 SD block from 2010 or 2011 but it’s definitely a -NAO. The 50/50 low is exceptionally strong so that sort of make the block “act” stronger than it really is on a temporary basis. It’s not creating a traffic jam slowing the slow down to a crawl though. The 50/50 low is still moving and the storm steadily moves out instead of rotting for 36 hours. Exactly. But to say no blocking so this is why they are leery is misleading. They Should have explained it better imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 If it was’t for those features, this would run up PF’s fanny. It’s a block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Exactly. But to say no blocking so this is why they are leery is misleading. They Should have explained it better imo. Write them a letter. They were explaining why this isn't a slowing down system 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Amazing how different the GFS and GEFS are from the other guidance. Don’t want to totally toss guidance out at 4-4.5 days out, but it’s hard to think they are right. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 It’s all about trading PFs Fanny for James’s 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Write them a letter. They were explaining why this isn't a slowing down system We are in 2020, he could just email or tweet them. But a letter delivered by horse and carriage works too. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We are in 2020, he could just email or tweet them. But a letter delivered by horse and carriage works too. Pony express that sucker right to BOX. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: It’s all about trading PFs Fanny for James’s Sometimes one has to make fanny sacrifices. Can’t have two at the same time...or can we? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Write them a letter. They were explaining why this isn't a slowing down system I think I more than made my point. I wouldn’t waste time writing them a letter. As Berg, Scott and Will just said what I was saying. If it acts as a block..it’s a block. Without the blocking..this is a cutter for sure. So the blocking(whatever the source, or combination of sources), its doing its job. That’s my only point. so to say no blocking was not correct. And I, or anybody here never said this thing stalls out due to a monster -NAO. But the blocking is there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Sometimes one has to make fanny sacrifices. Can’t have two at the same time...or can we? James and PF is tough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 6z euro maps anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: It’s all about trading PFs Fanny for James’s Split that distance and we are talking, ha. There’s just enough completely jacked ECM individual ensembles with like widespread 1”+ NNE to keep an eye on it north of RT 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Amazing how different the GFS and GEFS are from the other guidance. Don’t want to totally toss guidance out at 4-4.5 days out, but it’s hard to think they are right. I think it is instructive that the whole evolution is not just sensitive to the confluence to my north, but also the initial strength of the shortwave. The GFS/GEFS are just flatter/weaker with the wave. Otherwise the overall pattern looks pretty similar. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, WinterWolf said: I think I more than made my point. I wouldn’t waste time writing them a letter. As Berg, Scott and Will just said what I was saying. If it acts as a block..it’s a block. Without the blocking..this is a cutter for sure. So the blocking(whatever the source, or combination of sources, its doing its job. That’s my only point. so to say no blocking was not correct. And I, or anybody here never said this thing stalls out due to a monster -NAO. But the blocking is there. Jimmy did say that yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: I think I more than made my point. Agreed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 As it looks now, I'm glad I'm not at Pit2. However, there's many a time that I was living there that things were showing south and by time,Cool Spruce and I were worried whether the mix line would reach Route 1 (he'd typically mix more than I). In any case, this is one of those systems that has me thinking of that. Especially this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Amazing how different the GFS and GEFS are from the other guidance. Don’t want to totally toss guidance out at 4-4.5 days out, but it’s hard to think they are right. They look like the opposite of what the Euro showed at a similar time frame for the last storm. As we know the Euro was terrible with its server over amped and NW bias. There are many reasons why the GFS makes sense, collapsing PNA, possibility of a weaker S/W, stronger confluence etc... after last weeks Euro debacle, I would be adjusting its output by 100 miles south east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Ericjcrash said: 6z euro maps anyone? 06z only goes out to 90 hours. But it looks like 00z at that point, maybe a hair slower as Chris mentioned many posts back. The 06z EPS is coming now out and we’ll be able to see the storm as those go out to 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 While not a classic blocking pattern, the 50/50 low that’s currently traversing over the southern tier states, is modeled to blow up over Labrador to a sub 940mb low and there is just enough rigging over Greenland. This provides confluence over the northeast, preventing our modeled storm from cutting up the st Lawrence river. I feel the gfs is still struggling with this set up to some degree and has not been as consistent as other modeling. I’d still lean on the ensembles and treat each op run as another ensemble member. I believe 00z tonight we should have the shortwave fully sampled but will rely on others for confirmation. We shall see a narrowing at that point of general track. I feel pretty confident in a widespread 6”+ snowfall with potential for double that if Euro model is more accurate. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, qg_omega said: They look like the opposite of what the Euro showed at a similar time frame for the last storm. As we know the Euro was terrible with its server over amped and NW bias. There are many reasons why the GFS makes sense, collapsing PNA, possibility of a weaker S/W, stronger confluence etc... after last weeks Euro debacle, I would be adjusting its output by 100 miles south east... Euro was an outlier last storm, it is not this time. The GFS suite is now the outlier (except the new parallel which is quite amped). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Of course what this is REALLY about is whether the blocking prevents it from cutting, prevents it from kicking it out east progressively, or both. The concern at the moment is the second one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 06z EPS are maybe a shade more amped than 00z through 96h 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Split that distance and we are talking, ha. There’s just enough completely jacked ECM individual ensembles with like widespread 1”+ NNE to keep an eye on it north of RT 2. And god knows you’ll find a way to get some far NW deformation band followed by upslope and then 4 inches of powder from a moose fart. but it seems there is a real chance for further north action. I have 5 inches as my over under right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro was an outlier last storm, it is not this time. The GFS suite is now the outlier (except the new parallel which is quite amped). At this time lead, the UKMET agreed with Euro also, GFS and GGEM never bit. Not even once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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