Active mid December with multiple event potential

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said:

GFS on its own. Not to mention the GFSv16 was a monster hit along with every other piece of 00z guidance.Not sure if it was mentioned i didn't have a chance to read everything. And after what OceanSt said, ill be looking at the beta version more than current op now anyways. GFS Ignored.

Re: that AFD. I'd take my chances with a more northerly track than banking on ratios from "colder air" from a more southerly track. That's an over simplification of how ratios work in my opinion. We can get good or bad ratios regardless of the track. It isn't a direct coorelation that colder profile temps = higher ratios. It can happen but it all has to do with good lift in the DGZ. 

Either way, the 00Z and 6Z GFS scraper scenario is very unlikely atm so its all moot. 

It did this with Feb '13 as you may recall. Even at go-time it was sliding it out to sea. I never really trust the GFS for EC cyclogenesis.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

It did this with Feb '13 as you may recall. Even at go-time it was sliding it out to sea. I never really trust the GFS for EC cyclogenesis.

Yeah the "new" GFS looked like 18z

[WinterWolf]

Whats up with BOX’s AFD where they say no blocking?  I mean I know we haven’t had any blocking in yrs, but in this set up we have a bonafide 50/50, and some Negative NAO.  And they say no blocking?  Puzzling?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Whats up with BOX’s AFD where they say no blocking?  I mean I know we haven’t had any blocking in yrs, but in this set up we have a bonafide 50/50, and some Negative NAO.  And they say no blocking?  Puzzling?

Somebody was drinking late and read the h5 map upside down. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We lock 

Let some hang themselves on the gfs. 

[The 4 Seasons]

6Z EC gonna be huge again, no real change.

[JC-CT]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Whats up with BOX’s AFD where they say no blocking?  I mean I know we haven’t had any blocking in yrs, but in this set up we have a bonafide 50/50, and some Negative NAO.  And they say no blocking?  Puzzling?

It's more of a 50/50 low from Monday. That's not really considered blocking.

[Great Snow 1717]

9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Whats up with BOX’s AFD where they say no blocking?  I mean I know we haven’t had any blocking in yrs, but in this set up we have a bonafide 50/50, and some Negative NAO.  And they say no blocking?  Puzzling?

I think it  may be  their way of expressing some "concern" about the entire setup for the week ahead. 

[The 4 Seasons]

Only goes out to 90 but same look overall, just noise at this range. H5/Sfc.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Let some hang themselves on the gfs. 

Every biggie over the years does this. Every single one . The FV 3 loses it SE due to its poor handling of upper air dynamics and then as it catches on it brings it NW each and every run. Like clockwork. You’d think they’d learn 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

And we’re finally in nam range. Congrats.

[JC-CT]

They make a good point that the west coast is not the classic ridge, probably why we aren't seeing this curve up into maine.

[JC-CT]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

And we’re finally in nam range. Congrats.

Monday looks awful on the 6z

[mahk_webstah]

Wpc has slowly shifted south with the highest snow probabilities. Looks like there’s still a shot at something decent up here but the probabilities are really high for the far north and west suburbs of Washington Philadelphia New York and then over into southern New England. And their projected QPF numbers for esne are high as well, somewhere between one and a half and 2 inches over the next seven days. I still think this might trend north just a little bit but that’s probably just wishful thinking.  

[JC-CT]

Of course, Monday has always looked like white rain to me

[crossbowftw3]

Just now, JC-CT said:

Monday looks awful on the 6z

Lesser on Monday the better?

count on it.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

They make a good point that the west coast is not the classic ridge, probably why we aren't seeing this curve up into maine.

Feb 13 was a -PNA too...

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Only goes out to 90 but same look overall, just noise at this range. H5/Sfc.

Maybe a tickle slower, but very similar look to 00z going from neutral to negative tilt across Appalachia. 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Monday looks awful on the 6z

Essentially it is  a Jackie Bradley swing and a miss........

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Every biggie over the years does this. Every single one . The FV 3 loses it SE due to its poor handling of upper air dynamics and then as it catches on it brings it NW each and every run. Like clockwork. You’d think they’d learn 

Agreed. I said this right before the Euro run at 12:30 am. 
 

And your confused emoji at my post a few minutes ago, I don’t get?  Box is saying no blocking in their AFD..that’s puzzling because we do have some blocking. 

[qg_omega]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

How is that high and trend looking?

See 6z GFS

[mahk_webstah]

I really like reading g Chris’s discussions:

of the attention in the forecast period remains on Wed
night into Thu. The pattern continues to look very favorable
for a period of heavy precip across the Northeast as a strong
S/WV trof makes a run at strong high pressure anchored N of New
England. That is a recipe for strong frontogenesis in the WAA
ahead of the S/WV. The question locally will be just how far N
does that forcing make it.

Ensemble guidance continues to show the majority of the spread N
of the storm track...suggesting that members are struggling
with the influence of high pressure to the N. Indeed ensemble
sensitivity products show that the GEFS pressures on the N side
of the system are sensitive to both the S/WV itself but also
the confluent flow at H5 supporting the high pressure. I am not
ready to make strong commitments one way or another at this
time...as the S/WV in question will just be moving onshore in
the Pacific Northwest later this evening. As sounding network
gets a better sample of the height fields tonight confidence in
model guidance can start to grow a bit.

The 13.00z GEFS took a big step back from significant QPF
locally...but still has around a third of the members will some
measurable accumulation. The 13.00z ECMWF EPS remains robust
with QPF for much of the area. With that in mind I will continue
to blend in some high PoP to the baseline NBM
forecast...especially for Srn zones.

The real tough part of the forecast will be on the Nrn edge of
the precip shield...which undoubtedly will be located somewhere
in the forecast area. Forecast soundings show a nice dry wedge
of air in the mid levels. This will hang tough given the
location of high pressure...and I expect some evaporation to eat
away at that Nrn edge of precip. I could foresee some sharp
gradients on the N side...but at this time it is too early to
worry about exact snowfall amounts in that detail.

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

It's more of a 50/50 low from Monday. That's not really considered blocking.

There is a negative NAO as well...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Maybe a tickle slower, but very similar look to 00z going from neutral to negative tilt across Appalachia. 

Slower may help this get further north?

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

There is a negative NAO as well...

Not really, in the classic sense of a Greenland high.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Yea Mahky Mahk. Chris knows. Amx is spoiled. Flooded with knowledge.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, JC-CT said:

Not really, in the classic sense of a Greenland high.

Well, that’s not what Will was saying yesterday?  He clearly was saying that we are gonna probably be very glad we have some -NAO cuz otherwise, this thing would be a cutter the way it wants to go negative that far west.  
 

That’s bs on their part saying no blocking. 
 

 

[MJO812]

6z gefs

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Slower may help this get further north?

Probably a good thing that it's not getting chewed up and spit out east early. 

[JC-CT]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Well, that’s not what Will was saying yesterday?  He clearly was saying that we are gonna probably be very glad we have some -NAO cuz otherwise, this thing would be a cutter the way it wants to go negative that far west.  
 

That’s bs on their part saying no blocking. 
 

 

I'm not going to speak for Will, I'm not that dumb lol. There is some blocking for sure, but it's not a classic NAO. I think the numerical forecasts are spitting it out as neutral overall.