weathafella Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Also, regarding 0Z, gfs/GEFS are outliers vs the rest of the guidance. Just including the semi respectable models, cmc, euro vs gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: Euro isn't the same model like it use to be. It is too wound up happy at times. It has changed so much. The tweak ruined the model. Data? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: When? Well 12/5-12/6 as a recent example, but frequently in the last 18 months. The Euro has been too over amped often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Wait I have a few more now. Keep in mind these also add Monday: And for the queens out there: Thump I notice a very sizable tucked cluster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, greenmtnwx said: Well 12/5-12/6 as a recent example, but frequently in the last 18 months. The Euro has been too over amped often. Who.. You can argue that the GFS didn't nail that system either. Like I said.. They both have there weaknesses and strengths. Best to combine the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: Well 12/5-12/6 as a recent example, but frequently in the last 18 months. The Euro has been too over amped often. In what way was gfs better vs euro. And if you tell me one was better at d7 it doesn’t count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Reverse weenie psych != actual objectivity. Where is the data that shows euro is worse in the mid-range? Anectodes aren't data 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, weathafella said: In what way was gfs better vs euro. And if you tell me one was better at d7 it doesn’t count. The Euro had the eastern daks, western MA and VT getting significant snow for the 12/5 storm within 72 hours. If you recall we discussed frequently in that thread that the euro (and icon) has an amped bias and that the more progressive gfs was leading the way often in the regime flow the last year or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Usual caveats come with this given how far out it is, but it’s “reassuring” given how ugly the GFS suite was tonight. Main takeaway to me is things continue to look steady. No major shifts by the multi-model 00z suite together in one direction. GFS broke from the fold, but plenty of time for it to come back. I’m intentional with that language because nothing else really broke its way. When an advisory to solid warning snowfall across CT is an ugly run, you know you're tracking something serious. Anything above 4" would destroy any storm last season here. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Who.. You can argue that the GFS didn't nail that system either. Like I said.. They both have there weaknesses and strengths. Best to combine the two. It’s better to know the biases and weaknesses of each. Gfs has always had trouble with east coast cyclogenesis. Euro has amp bias and holding energy in the SW USA. But a basic rule of thumb is don’t lean on the outlier model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 19 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: The Euro had the eastern daks, western MA and VT getting significant snow for the 12/5 storm within 72 hours. If you recall we discussed frequently in that thread that the euro (and icon) has an amped bias and that the more progressive gfs was leading the way often in the regime flow the last year or so. It was an amplified system. What was wrong were the snow maps and those are vendor driven. I bet if you ran surface and H5 you’d be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: The Euro had the eastern daks, western MA and VT getting significant snow for the 12/5 storm within 72 hours. If you recall we discussed frequently in that thread that the euro (and icon) has an amped bias and that the more progressive gfs was leading the way often in the regime flow the last year or so. Also, as you pointed out, GFS does well in a progressive pattern. However with a system that has blocking, you’d probably lean further away from it. But in the 0Z suite with the GFS being most suppressed one is reminded of countless storms over the years when the model shat in itself. By the way the GFS para which will be gfs soon is way way different at 0z. 12-18+ for SNE and cne. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: Also, as you pointed out, GFS does well in a progressive pattern. However with a system that has blocking, you’d probably lean further away from it. But in the 0Z suite with the GFS being most suppressed one is reminded of countless storms over the years when the model shat in itself. By the way the GFS para which will be gfs soon is way way different at 0z. 12-18+ for SNE and cne. I'm actually very interested in the parallel GFS this year vs last year. This will actually include some physics updates vs just changing the computing core of the model. So v16 may bring actual changes to model accuracy. I'm also not going to evaluate one model vs another based on clown maps. They were all pretty poor in that regard for the 5th/6th. If I remember correctly the Euro was first to move towards a more amplified and juicy system then which ultimately was correct. Unfortunately the antecedent air mass was too crap to support widespread accumulating snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I'm actually very interested in the parallel GFS this year vs last year. This will actually include some physics updates vs just changing the computing core of the model. So v16 may bring actual changes to model accuracy. I'm also not going to evaluate one model vs another based on clown maps. They were all pretty poor in that regard for the 5th/6th. If I remember correctly the Euro was first to move towards a more amplified and juicy system then which ultimately was correct. Unfortunately the antecedent air mass was too crap to support widespread accumulating snow. Do you know when the new GFS v16 will be released? And, in your opinion, since the old (current) GFS is going away, should we even be looking at it? Focusing more on the new GFS vs. the old (current one)? I'm always torn when a new version of the same model is coming out and we have access to both. Especially when they are showing vastly differently soln. This happened a few years ago with the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: Do you know when the new GFS v16 will be released? And, in your opinion, since the old (current) GFS is going away, should we even be looking at it? Focusing more on the new GFS vs. the old (current one)? I'm always torn when a new version of the same model is coming out and we have access to both. Especially when they are showing vastly differently soln. This happened a few years ago with the ECMWF. Last I saw was Feb 2021. I haven't seen any evaluation suggesting that testing is not going well and I don't foresee any slippage due to that (though red tape could always cause a delay). Evaluation also suggests that it performs as well if not better than the operational GFS for most parameters. The most consistent complaints are regarding TCs and low CAPE biases, so not really relevant to cool season cyclogenesis. I view it as the operational GFS is still a useful data source, but I maybe weight v16 a little more given it's had a pretty successful year+ of testing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Last I saw was Feb 2021. I haven't seen any evaluation suggesting that testing is not going well and I don't foresee any slippage due to that (though red tape could always cause a delay). Evaluation also suggests that it performs as well if not better than the operational GFS for most parameters. The most consistent complaints are regarding TCs and low CAPE biases, so not really relevant to cool season cyclogenesis. I view it as the operational GFS is still a useful data source, but I maybe weight v16 a little more given it's had a pretty successful year+ of testing. so you'd value gfs-para runs at this point more than gfs operationals? Intriguing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 grave-shift BOX AFD: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 ah screw it. might as well stay up for the 6z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Don't think it'll end up being much than 0z to my untrained eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Close the shades on the 06 gfs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 The 06Z GFS really wanted to rush the storm. The H5 vort closed off over NJ while remaining Positive tilted. This would benefit the coast quite a bit, but alas the amount of snowfall would be cut down further inland (Southern NY and NE PA) vs 00Z. Seems like EPA will get the goods on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 GFS on its own. Not to mention the GFSv16 was a monster hit along with every other piece of 00z guidance.Not sure if it was mentioned i didn't have a chance to read everything. And after what OceanSt said, ill be looking at the beta version more than current op now anyways. GFS Ignored. Re: that AFD. I'd take my chances with a more northerly track than banking on ratios from "colder air" from a more southerly track. That's an over simplification of how ratios work in my opinion. We can get good or bad ratios regardless of the track. It isn't a direct coorelation that colder profile temps = higher ratios. It can happen but it all has to do with good lift in the DGZ. Either way, the 00Z and 6Z GFS scraper scenario is very unlikely atm so its all moot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Pretty straightforward forecast 1-3” Monday afternoon 1-2’ Wednesday pm into Thursday 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 13-27" lock it up 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Pretty straightforward forecast 1-3” Monday afternoon 1-2’ Wednesday pm into Thursday Days and days of ❄ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Pretty straightforward forecast 1-3” Monday afternoon 1-2’ Wednesday pm into Thursday Locked and loaded ( although the one for tomorrow I do think wrong surpass 1" in most areas in CT ). Checked out at the flakes of the air will be fun and gets us ready for Thursday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 34 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: 13-27" lock it up We lock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 33 minutes ago, BrianW said: Days and days of ❄ And days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Did I ginx it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 19 hours ago, JC-CT said: Late Sunday and Monday runs, right as the convection starts firing in the southeast. Happens every time. Oh, yeah, that's for Monday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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