Spanks45 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Keep the gfs right there. Have the euro be a little amped. Blend it 70/30. Boom. I feel like 84 to 108 hrs out is when these things like to start throwing a few curve balls. Stay the course for now and see where we are tomorrow at this time. Past failures has me concerned slightly, and has from the start of this thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 CMC is a solid crushing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Then the PV reconsolidates.....lol Yeah our one chance before the JFM suckage lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Are we hyper reacting to a d4 gfs op run much? No.... but when we’ve been seeing the same solutions across models for like 3 days... I’d prefer it didn’t do that lol. That gfs doesn’t really get snow north of Boston 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Ray deformed on cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: CMC is a solid crushing Nice and cold from NYC to coastal SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, weathafella said: Ray deformed on cmc James deformed on amwx lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Spanks45 said: I feel like 84 to 108 hrs out is when these things like to start throwing a few curve balls. Stay the course for now and see where we are tomorrow at this time. Past failures has me concerned slightly, and has from the start of this thing... We still in ens range. op runs are still high variance. Past failures are embedded in my dna lol but I am not concerned, yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I’d lock CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: CMC is coming in a lot better Just now, weathafella said: CMC is a solid crushing Normally I’d trust the GFS over the GGEM (I recall the GGEM being not that good), but the drastic run to run shifts from the GFS don’t make it look very credible at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: You...know how this goes. The shook ones shake and the rest wait for the rest of the data to make a judgement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Someone throw up a cmc snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We still in ens range. op runs are still high variance. Past failures are embedded in my dna lol but I am not concerned, yet. You shouldn't be, Going to be plenty of ebbs and flows for another day or two at least, But i think your in a good spot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 GFS has about the same low position approaching Jersey. But the high wins the battle with the weaker system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeSnowBOS Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Are we hyper reacting to a d4 gfs op run much? Exactly - it’s one run 4+ days out. Just like the 18z GFS was a huge hit, this is a miss. Will go back and forth a bit on the operational run. Let’s see the GEFS and rest of suite. No need to over-react here (at least not now!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We still in ens range. op runs are still high variance. Past failures are embedded in my dna lol but I am not concerned, yet. It's all about the chase now...I'm still the guy that thinks my team is going to pull it out in the 9th inning down by 5 with 1 out....we are up by 2, bottom of the 3rd right now...plenty of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We still in ens range. op runs are still high variance. Past failures are embedded in my dna lol but I am not concerned, yet. 18z GFS was a northern outlier within its ensemble system, so a southward correction doesn't surprise any. And honestly for all we know right now this could be a southern outlier on the 00z GEFS. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, RDRY said: GFS has about the same low position approaching Jersey. But the high wins the battle with the weaker system. Surface high does not impact the track of the surface low, the mid-levels impact storm track! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Spanks45 said: It's all about the chase now...I'm still the guy that thinks my team is going to pull it out in the 9th inning down by 5 with 1 out....we are up by 2, bottom of the 3rd right now...plenty of time Would love to see the CMC maps. All these model fluctuations can cause insanity, but, then I thought, Hey.. We still have a lot od winter to go. So... Not to worry ( but I do hope for double digit snow for this storm ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, dryslot said: You shouldn't be, Going to be plenty of ebbs and flows for another day or two at least, But i think your in a good spot. Yea. I think all of sne is in a good spot. The solution is certainly plausible but until the evidence becomes clearer, it’s just a randomized op run filed in the fwiw category just like 18z was. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Agree. I think CT is in good shape here. We can take a NW or S trend and come out with something decent if worst comes to worst. Just not too much IMO. This GFS is bringing back my dark memories of early December 2018 in the mid-Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 What did the CMC show for snowfall? Hey.. This is my second page topper. What I want to see happen for us all is " Pop goes the weasel cuz the weasel goes Pop " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Agree. I think CT is in good shape here. We can take a NW or S trend and come out with something decent if worst comes to worst. Just not too much IMO. Yeah, You guys are sitting in a good spot, Some just need to keep expectation in check for now, These day 4-5 jacks don't usually end up where there modeled at this lead, But i think your areas in line for a Mod-Sig event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Graupler Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 She gone go souf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Only out to hr 66 on pivotal for the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 GEFS mean looks pretty south compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: I’d lock CMC How many times I've thought that over the years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 GEFS are not much help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Basically exactly the same as 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Gefs is further south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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