ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: The Canadian and rgem have been steadfast on that. Yep. Not a single run from them I’ve seen that wanted to bring that sucker northwest. Ukie too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, Greg said: I don't see this storm going over 15 hours for us here in Eastern Southern New England. The THURS storm? We have a huge -NAO block! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 It’s possible it may not stop snowing until April. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, dendrite said: It’s possible it may not stop snowing until April. Of 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Blocks don’t always equal 36hr storms. The huge 50/50 is transient here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: The THURS storm? We have a huge -NAO block! James, trust me... this is NOT an 18-24 Hour storm. It's pretty progressive in the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: It’s possible it may not stop snowing until April. Months and months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Woah, I did not say the block is the reason why it will be a long duration storm. The trough goes negative, and the H5 trough closes off into an upper low. The upper low captures the surface low prolonging the event even further. Models could trend to a stronger shortwave given that the trough that is the main energy for the storm is still off the west coast and is just beginning to come ashore. Again, sampling matters when it comes to the exact track of the surface low and H5 features. Honestly, that is a massive upper level low over the NE Pacific Ocean off the WA coast. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 13 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: The THURS storm? We have a huge -NAO block! Stop vomiting nonsense. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Need our boy Frankie to give an update soon.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Monday’s back on American guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 14 minutes ago, dendrite said: It’s possible it may not stop snowing until April. Can I borrow this for my AFD tonight, full credit of course. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Stop vomiting nonsense. Haha, yeah nonsense. It is also the synoptic pattern that can shunt everything to the south like 2009-2010 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 fun week incoming with a couple of inches Monday and 12+ thur.. wohooooooooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Haha, yeah nonsense. It is also the synoptic pattern that can shunt everything to the south like 2009-2010 Actually, it isn’t. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Jimmy is excited, it’s all good. Let the weenie fly out and fly high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Actually, it isn’t. What are you talking about? A -NAO can easily shunt storms to our south. I am not saying this one in particular, I am saying strong -NAOs in general have the ability to shunt southward. SNE does not need a strong -NAO for a KU event to unfold. However, I do not think the WED/THUR storm is only a 12-15 hour storm. The big storms have a tendency to trend more dynamic within the four day window as well as trend longer in duration. We have some time before the energy is completed sampled, about until 00z/ DEC 14th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Jimmy is excited, it’s all good. Let the weenie fly out and fly high. of course I am a bit excited. We have a shot at our first widespread SNE event in a while! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: Monday’s back on American guidance Perhaps presaging a slightly less tucked main event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: What are you talking about? A -NAO can easily shunt storms to our south. I am not saying this one in particular, I am saying strong -NAOs in general have the ability to shunt southward. SNE does not need a strong -NAO for a KU event to unfold. However, I do not think the WED/THUR storm is only a 12-15 hour storm. The big storms have a tendency to trend more dynamic within the four day window as well as trend longer in duration. We have some time before the energy is completed sampled, about until 00z/ DEC 14th. You said it’s similar to 2009-10. That block was way stronger. This is a conveniently timed one like many other storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Hoth said: Perhaps presaging a slightly less zonked main event? That actually doesn’t make sense. That Monday low was always there but it passes slightly closer now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Definitely slows things down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 This run won’t be as amped as 18z. Can already tell by 78h. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Confluence looking a little more pressed this run, or it could be noise and not matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: This run won’t be as amped as 18z. Can already tell by 78h. Think Monday being closer as impact? I instinctively hate when I hear that is closer... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Going to track further south this time weaker wave, More confluence to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I don’t see how Mondays slightly closer pass makes that much difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Think Monday being closer as impact? I instinctively hate when I hear that is closer... I don’t think Monday makes a big difference. Regardless, this is a philly special this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Yeah this run will be a few steps down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 similar to the 12z euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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