tavwtby Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Stamford to philly is a 2hr ride but then again we consider Stamford pretty much NYC anyway. yeah, it takes me an hour to get to bport from my house, 2 hr philly drive my ass...and I kinda consider all of fairfield county a part of nyc, maybe not north fairfield county but definitely south, and sw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: Either a weaker block or slow the system down to give it a chance to retreat some. It hit me at 18z just how far out the event is... I don’t expect a north trend but not having the system even getting started at the end of the 84 hour model runs is a very long time in model world. The shortwave could be a beast, or it could be a false alarm... the block could be massive or it could be over estimated. There’s a lot of time left in this. The big ones can have great lead time but I’ve personally seen plenty of modeled huge NNE synoptic storms go sideways at this lead time. Makes me think something could change in any direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 00z NAM still adamant about Monday storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 42 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: stuck in between the 2? You know something is going leave us lonely in this neck of the woods.... Yeah, I'm getting the preparation H ready. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It hit me at 18z just how far out the event is... I don’t expect a north trend but not even having the system even getting started at the end of the 84 hour model runs is a very long time in model world. The shortwave could be a beast, or it could be a false alarm... the block could be massive or it could be over estimated. There’s a lot of time left in this. The big ones can have great lead time but I’ve seen plenty of modeled huge NNE synoptic storms go sideways at this lead time. Time will tell, I'm luke warm on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 23 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The storm isn’t even in range of the 18z ECM or 18z NAM... there’s a lot of time left for significant changes. Get that progged block to weaken a bit... Stop trying to steal my snow! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, Hoth said: Stop trying to steal my snow! PF gets wood when these SLP tracks north thru PWM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 NAM actually is coming more north/stronger with the Monday system. Looks pretty good for portions of SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 21 minutes ago, Greg said: I was looking through the "KU" book carefully. One "weak" but potential storm analog is the December 10-13 1960 Northeaster (La Nina Winter). Again a weak analog. However, in the "Near Misses" section, there are a couple that come close. Need to be closer to the potential event before even I can narrow this down to anything similar in this set-up. Dec 11-12, 1960 was an all timer. One of my favorite storms in all of my experience 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Well the NAM certainly doesn't bring out fears of suppression but it's 84 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: Dec 11-12, 1960 was an all timer. One of my favorite storms in all of my experience I'll never forget that one. I was 13 at the time and my father worked at the Sears catalogue plant on Brookline Ave. We didn't own a car back then, so he had to use the bus and rapid transit, all of which were shut down from the storm when he left work. He attempted to walk home in the storm (about 5-6 miles) but ended up staying for the night a short distance away at one of the hospitals down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 20 minutes ago, weathafella said: Dec 11-12, 1960 was an all timer. One of my favorite storms in all of my experience 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Well the NAM certainly doesn't bring out fears of suppression but it's 84 hours What a set up for the mid-Atlantic and SNE... that shortwave running into a 1036mb high north of Montreal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, powderfreak said: What a set up for the mid-Atlantic and SNE... that shortwave running into a 1036mb high just north of Montreal. I'm consciously trying to contain my excitement. That look is like the big ones down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Now its just about avoiding a dryslot or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, powderfreak said: What a set up for the mid-Atlantic and SNE... that shortwave running into a 1036mb high north of Montreal. I used to draw them up on blank maps like that when I was a younger weenie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Lack of posts in here tonight, let's step it up weenies 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: I used to draw them up on blank maps like that when I was a younger weenie. Same here, I blew off most of my Spanish classes in High School Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 12 minutes ago, powderfreak said: What a set up for the mid-Atlantic and SNE... that shortwave running into a 1036mb high north of Montreal. Strong shortwave -- check Arctic high + block -- check Gulf moisture -- check Atlantic moisture -- check 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said: Lack of posts in here tonight, let's step it up weenies Dead zone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Monday's storm could deliver quite a punch if the cold air moves in time to the coast and the precip waits another six hours. Like almost a partial phase would help us a bit! Models mostly have the low like stop intensifying as it travels from NJ to the benchmark, and then it intensifies explosively afterward. 00z NAM is different now, with the low intensifying before it reaches the benchmark and dumps a secondary QPF max near ACK and CHH! The speed and progressive nature, while intensification is taking place is a prohibitive to anything more substantial than significant snowfall potential! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Now the WED NGHT - THUR storm threat looks like to be impacted by the block and therefore become a potential long duration snow event for SNE and the northern MID ATL! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Dead zone It's been a couple years since we had anything really interesting, we forget about these things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 James, you forgot to put "BREAKING NEWS" first 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Now the WED NGHT - THUR storm threat looks like to be impacted by the block and therefore become a potential long duration snow event for SNE and the northern MID ATL! I don't see this storm going over 15 hours for us here in Eastern Southern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: It's been a couple years since we had anything really interesting, we forget about these things It also doesn’t help that this is like day 2-3 of tracking this and it’s still 5 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 NAM refusing to fold on the Monday deal... advisory event south of the pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 We should focus on Mondays situation first then put all our energy into the Thursday potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 RGEM still not biting on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: RGEM still not biting on Monday. The Canadian and rgem have been steadfast on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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