ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Look at MD and SEPA. tucked low caused SNJ to rain and miss the goods and not because the system gets kicked east. But the mid atl is not just big I95 cities. Id be happy it I was NW of philly right now. If I was at PSU in UNV and over to IPT I’d be feeling pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: If I was at PSU in UNV and over to IPT I’d be feeling pretty good. That’s a good spot where the primary fades and kinda merges into the deform goodies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 56 minutes ago, weathafella said: Had backstage passes for a concert at the old Garden September 1992. Fun times. I am sure I was there. I saw them a lot between 1985-95. Meanwhile, we snow this week! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Forgive me please if this was already discussed but are there any decent analogs for Thursday’s storm to compare? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 23 minutes ago, weathafella said: Look at that CJ enhancement in scooterville. Scooter told me it wasn't that type of storm It's a cold event...it will have some cj. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Look at MD and SEPA. tucked low caused SNJ to rain and miss the goods and not because the system gets kicked east. But the mid atl is not just big I95 cities. Id be happy it I was NW of philly right now. I never said bc it gets kicked east. I said this wasn't January 2015. Mid atl is ****ed because it's coming north and the primary may make it further north. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 16 minutes ago, weathafella said: I don’t know man-I’d be worried in DC/BWI amd even PHL at this point. Look at the lower half of NJ Agree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Forgive me please if this was already discussed but are there any decent analogs for Thursday’s storm to compare? Yup ... coastal storms 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 21 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Pretty big on a mean at d4-d5 but you can begin to see the early capture in the mid atl and then the seconday max in ema. stuck in between the 2? You know something is going leave us lonely in this neck of the woods.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 December 2009 has been brought up and I see similarities for here but not further south. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/December_2009_North_American_blizzard 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I never said bc it gets kicked east. I said this wasn't January 2015. Mid atl is ****ed because it's coming north and the primary may make it further north. There is more to the mid atl then dc and philly. Interior mid atl will do just fine when the low gets captured around the delmarva or nj coast. I’m not sure what we’re even debating anymore lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Rays thoughts are correct. The only question right now since it's 4-5 Days out is how close or how far off shore this main surface low tracks. We all know the drill. Clown maps are fun to look at but we'll all see what the reality is on the ground Thursday in our neck of the woods. However, it is nice to see the heart of our viewing area in the crosshairs for this potential snow event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 24 minutes ago, weathafella said: I don’t know man-I’d be worried in DC/BWI amd even PHL at this point. Look at the lower half of NJ That 18z GFS blew up the Monday storm at hr 84 to 932 mb off Labrador, even stronger than what it had at 12z. So I don't see that high retreating E much, if it all from here. In fact, that low is so strong and slow to move out up there that our Wed-Thur storm will be shunted east and will hit Great Britain on Sunday as a strong 976 mb low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: There is more to the mid atl then dc and philly. Interior mid atl will do just fine when the low gets captured around the delmarva or nj coast. I’m not sure what we’re even debating anymore lol. Being inland doesn't matter if the primary comes nw. How did state college do in March 2001? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: stuck in between the 2? You know something is going leave us lonely in this neck of the woods.... It’s possible but I like where we sit. A 10” spot on a d4 eps mean is pretty sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2001? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 i don't even remember how folks did in the storm last week 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Being inland doesn't matter if the primary comes nw. How did state college do in March 2001? Ah ok. I see what you’re saying. Doubt the primary is so strong that it floods the mid levels into CPA though. If this slows another 12-24hrs, then maybe. I could be wrong but now I know what you’re getting at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Being inland doesn't matter if the primary comes nw. How did state college do in March 2001? I think about 10” altogether from the primary. I didn’t live there until 2005 but I remember from reading reports. I remember when I went to PSU getting shafted constantly with the coastal tracks or inland runners during the Nina years like 07-08, hopefully there’s a way it can really work out there and here as well. They might not even be on the board yet for snow in State College or if they are it’s been very little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Scooter told me it wasn't that type of storm It's a cold event...it will have some cj. I just meant I don’t see a screw job from that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Agree. I can’t think of a storm that ever worked out from here on south where the low cut into NJ. The low I think can only cut to around Cape May then has to make a beeline east to keep it snow even to around NYC. I think this is gonna want to cut, we need the confluence big time. Maybe I’m being a “Debbie” as you guys say but can’t discount something like the 18z GFS or a scenario where the confluence weakens or the PNA gets less cooperative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MRVexpat Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 hour ago, DotRat_Wx said: I'm 29 but when I hang out with my best friends and really throw the booze back it's our band of choice. Brown eyed woman, Bertha, Tennessee Jed, sugaree.... There are just so many God damn jams I don't know where to begin and end 30. Same here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 30 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Forgive me please if this was already discussed but are there any decent analogs for Thursday’s storm to compare? I was looking through the "KU" book carefully. One "weak" but potential storm analog is the December 10-13 1960 Northeaster (La Nina Winter). Again a weak analog. However, in the "Near Misses" section, there are a couple that come close. Need to be closer to the potential event before even I can narrow this down to anything similar in this potential set-up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Being inland doesn't matter if the primary comes nw. How did state college do in March 2001? The storm isn’t even in range of the 18z ECM or 18z NAM... there’s a lot of time left for significant changes. Get that progged block to weaken a bit... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 How has the Mid Atlantic done in general in mid December events? I know later in the month there have been some good events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Hey guys. In reference to what Henry H said about the storm looping off Jersey. Apparently ( this is from another site mind you ), the CFS showed the storm doing a loop yesterday. You guys are pretty ruthless and opinionated regardless of Henry's. forecasting ( and even to one another ). Anyway.. Point is, dont judge others as none of you are perfect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The storm isn’t even in range of the 18z ECM or 18z NAM... there’s a lot of time left for significant changes. Get that progged block to weaken a bit... Either a weaker block or slow the system down to give it a chance to retreat some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 23 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Ah ok. I see what you’re saying. Doubt the primary is so strong that it floods the mid levels into CPA though. If this slows another 12-24hrs, then maybe. I could be wrong but now I know what you’re getting at. Yea, may not happen...just something to be mindful of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I just meant I don’t see a screw job from that. Everything relative...if Woburn gets 24" and I get 12", then that is a good 'ole pork. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 This has slowed quite a bit in just a day or so... it now is a mostly Thursday deal... wonder if it slows even more? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now