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Active mid December with multiple event potential


Typhoon Tip
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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Look at MD and SEPA. tucked low caused SNJ to rain and miss the goods and not because the system gets kicked east. 

But the mid atl is not just big I95 cities. Id be happy it I was NW of philly right now.

If I was at PSU in UNV and over to IPT I’d be feeling pretty good. 

 

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12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Look at MD and SEPA. tucked low caused SNJ to rain and miss the goods and not because the system gets kicked east. 

But the mid atl is not just big I95 cities. Id be happy it I was NW of philly right now.

I never said bc it gets kicked east. I said this wasn't January 2015.

Mid atl is ****ed because it's coming north and the primary may make it further north.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I never said bc it gets kicked east. I said this wasn't January 2015.

Mid atl is ****ed because it's coming north and the primary may make it further north.

There is more to the mid atl then dc and philly. Interior mid atl will do just fine when the low gets captured around the delmarva or nj coast. I’m not sure what we’re even debating anymore lol. 

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Rays thoughts are correct. The only question right now since it's 4-5 Days out is how close or how far off shore this main surface low tracks. We all know the drill. Clown maps are fun to look at but we'll all see what the reality is on the ground Thursday in our neck of the woods. However, it is nice to see the heart of our viewing area in the crosshairs for this potential snow event.

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24 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I don’t know man-I’d be worried in DC/BWI amd even PHL at this point.  Look at the lower half of NJ

That 18z GFS blew up the Monday storm at hr 84 to 932 mb off Labrador, even stronger than what it had at 12z.  So I don't see that high retreating E much, if it all from here.  In fact, that low is so strong and slow to move out up there that our Wed-Thur storm will be shunted east and will hit Great Britain on Sunday as a strong 976 mb low.

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

There is more to the mid atl then dc and philly. Interior mid atl will do just fine when the low gets captured around the delmarva or nj coast. I’m not sure what we’re even debating anymore lol. 

Being inland doesn't matter if the primary comes nw. How did state college do in March 2001?

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Being inland doesn't matter if the primary comes nw. How did state college do in March 2001?

Ah ok. I see what you’re saying. Doubt the primary is so strong that it floods the mid levels into CPA though. If this slows another 12-24hrs, then maybe. I could be wrong but now I know what you’re getting at.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Being inland doesn't matter if the primary comes nw. How did state college do in March 2001?

I think about 10” altogether from the primary. I didn’t live there until 2005 but I remember from reading reports. I remember when I went to PSU getting shafted constantly with the coastal tracks or inland runners during the Nina years like 07-08, hopefully there’s a way it can really work out there and here as well. They might not even be on the board yet for snow in State College or if they are it’s been very little. 

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14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agree.

I can’t think of a storm that ever worked out from here on south where the low cut into NJ. The low I think can only cut to around Cape May then has to make a beeline east to keep it snow even to around NYC. I think this is gonna want to cut, we need the confluence big time. Maybe I’m being a “Debbie” as you guys say but can’t discount something like the 18z GFS or a scenario where the confluence weakens or the PNA gets less cooperative. 

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30 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Forgive me please if this was already discussed but are there any decent analogs for Thursday’s storm to compare?

I was looking through the "KU" book carefully. One "weak" but potential storm analog is the December 10-13 1960 Northeaster (La Nina Winter). Again a weak analog. However, in the "Near Misses" section, there are a couple that come close. Need to be closer to the potential event before even I can narrow this down to anything similar in this potential set-up.

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Hey guys. In reference to what Henry H said about the storm looping off Jersey. Apparently ( this is from another site mind you ), the CFS showed the storm doing a loop yesterday. You guys are pretty ruthless and opinionated regardless of Henry's. forecasting ( and even to one another ). Anyway.. Point is, dont judge others as none of you are perfect. 

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23 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Ah ok. I see what you’re saying. Doubt the primary is so strong that it floods the mid levels into CPA though. If this slows another 12-24hrs, then maybe. I could be wrong but now I know what you’re getting at.

Yea, may not happen...just something to be mindful of.

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