JC-CT Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 I guess I'm wondering if 3" qpf in 12 hours is realistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 8 minutes ago, MuddyWx said: grab the lotion Aren’t the Kuchera maps always on the extreme side of things? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Definitely need a few more ticks north, ha. Still time though. Keep sharpening that trough and delay it a bit to get it further north, Stronger vortmax will tuck it closer too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I know that, but mid level RH does not prevent subsidence exhaust. Mid levels were good in Dec 2003 and PD II, as well. Scooter just detests concerning ones self with those things since we are still all getting a size able storm . But ya ...it’s worth talking about imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 14 minutes ago, JC-CT said: What exactly is the para gfs? The future. https://vlab.ncep.noaa.gov/web/environmental-modeling-center/unified-forecast-system Quote With the initial operational implementation of FV3GFS now accomplished, EMC's global modeling focus has turned towards development of the next GFS (v16) upgrade, which will include doubled vertical resolution (64 to 127 layers), more advanced physics, data assimilation system upgrades, and coupling to a NCEP Global Wave Model. Implementation of GFSv16 is targeted for the early winter of 2021. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 13 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: Unless it slowed down a ton... Amounts would be very isolated over a foot in that scenario. I'm mobile so I can't look, but don't start believing in this bomb qpf runs with 30" of snow Widespread 30"....probably not. But widespread over 1'? Absolutely. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: The future. https://vlab.ncep.noaa.gov/web/environmental-modeling-center/unified-forecast-system Thanks. The run from the 11th was bridge jump worthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Ray, I’d argue some of those were banded messes too. Not sure I see that currently as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 14 minutes ago, JC-CT said: I guess I'm wondering if 3" qpf in 12 hours is realistic It’s 24-36 hour storm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: It’s 24-36 hour storm The GFS just dumped 3" of QPF in SEMA in 12 hours, regardless of your interpretation of a storm's start and end times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Lol here comes the grinch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 GEFS look more SE than the OP for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, JC-CT said: Lol here comes the grinch The high is probably in a better place than last time...I wouldn't mind seeing it trend into an awesome christmas Miller B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Dang. Hope that map doesn’t have a clue for Cape Ann. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: The GFS just dumped 3" of QPF in SEMA in 12 hours, regardless of your interpretation of a storm's start and end times Regardless of what Kevin thinks that's likely highly implausible to happen...if at 10:1 you're asking for 3" of snow an hour for 12 hours...essentially, one band has to last for half a day. Not likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 12-18" likely with some spots seeing 20" ... allot of moisture to work with but those amounts on the GFS are rare for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 16 minutes ago, dryslot said: Keep sharpening that trough and delay it a bit to get it further north, Stronger vortmax will tuck it closer too. That trough axis does look like it would want to amp up. Damn -NAO. I’m sure there’ll be a zonked NAM run over like BOS at some point though lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, JoshSnow said: It’s not 12 hours this is a fact. It’s becoming a 24+ hour storm 3" falls in 12 hours on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: That trough axis does look like it would want to amp up. Damn -NAO. I’m sure there’ll be a zonked NAM run over like BOS at some point though lol. I know folks love blocking, I don’t mind a weak one but strong blocks and it’s cirrus typically here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 8 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: GEFS look more SE than the OP for sure. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattm4242 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: 3" falls in 12 hours on the GFS yeah well it still snows for 24 hours!!! SE Mass going for 4 feet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 25 minutes ago, Pluffmud said: Aren’t the Kuchera maps always on the extreme side of things? Lock it. Still thinking a couple 3 on Monday and a 4 to 8 solution here on Wed/Thu...though it looks like NOAA has it slowing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, J Paul Gordon said: Lock it. Still thinking a couple 3 on Monday and a 4 to 8 solution here on Wed/Thu tempering expectations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, dryslot said: I know folks love blocking, I don’t mind a weak one but strong blocks and it’s cirrus typically here. Yeah...any pattern that gets NYC-PHL-DCA excited is generally not great for us. Lots of scraps and sloppy seconds at best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nice. From the MA board: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 8 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: 12-18" likely with some spots seeing 20" ... allot of moisture to work with but those amounts on the GFS are rare for a reason. Agree. The big solutions are a mirage for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Agree. The big solutions are a mirage for now. 12-18 is a big solution for folks who haven't seen 6" since March 2019. I'll take plowable and blinking snow emergency lights 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/12/growing-likelihood-of-high-impact.html First Call tomorrow. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 8 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: From the MA board: There are a lot of tuckies: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 45 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Ugh, I like New England, but you guys really gonna make me drive 7 hours again? Thanks aholes Connecticut is a two hour drive from Philly. You don't have to go all the way to northern New England to get in on the action. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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