40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah I believe it. That’s clearing every 6 hrs with 35:1 fluff. Look at Jspin maiming constant 1” depth last week when he had like 3.8” fluff. Shit compacts. Right. We all joke, but at the end of the day, I also think @Damage In Tolland is very accurate and meticulous with his measurements. I don't think anyone of this core group actually inflates totals. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Someone other than myself should begin a threat on the Monday event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: I'll take that 68% chance of >12" on that EPS run. I’ll take my like 60ish and run as well... bumped up from 00z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, 78Blizzard said: I'll take that 68% chance of >12" on that EPS run. Was thinking the same thing - at least 60-65% or so anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: And Worcester's 36 didn't disparage my 32" You all suck since I only had 27". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Lets see if the eps is too amped like usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Right. We all joke, but at the end of the day, I also think @Damage In Tolland is very accurate and meticulous with his measurements. I don't think anyone of this core group actually inflates totals. I’ve made some mistakes in the past with shitty measuring spots but no one takes 7” and makes it 10”. It’s kinda like your golf scores...you’re only cheating yourself lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Someone other than myself should begin a threat on the Monday event The EPS does not like that event either. The CMC has been pretty consistent in saying that one is a dud. The Euro joined it the last 2 runs. A weaker Monday is probably better for SNE Wednesday...well at least for places that are not SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: The EPS does not like that event either. The CMC has been pretty consistent in saying that one is a dud. The Euro joined it the last 2 runs. A weaker Monday is probably better for SNE Wednesday...well at least for places that are not SE Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Lets see if the eps is too amped like usual Was 150 miles too far west with Laura into Galveston. The eps and ecmwf have been garbage. Go with geps / cmc which have been most consistant benchmark/ se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The EPS does not like that event either. The CMC has been pretty consistent in saying that one is a dud. The Euro joined it the last 2 runs. A weaker Monday is probably better for SNE Wednesday...well at least for places that are not SE Agreed. Monday is weak sh*t. Keep it a lil flatter and bring the beast in for Wednesday/Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Agree. I am somewhat wary of Monday being flat because the WRN NATL setup. Those sort of systems in recent winters when we have the upper air pattern we have in place Sun-Mon have almost always been west/amped of what the 48-60 hour guidance has suggested. The CMC has been running somewhat well lately though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The EPS does not like that event either. The CMC has been pretty consistent in saying that one is a dud. The Euro joined it the last 2 runs. A weaker Monday is probably better for SNE Wednesday...well at least for places that are not SE I believe there is enough space in timing of the two major shortwaves that it won't have much of an impact. The Monday system becomes a powerful low over Labrador no matter the intensity at the benchmark! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: I am somewhat wary of Monday being flat because the WRN NATL setup. Those sort of systems in recent winters when we have the upper air pattern we have in place Sun-Mon have almost always been west/amped of what the 48-60 hour guidance has suggested. The CMC has been running somewhat well lately though. SnowGoose, I think we should have a separate thread for the Monday event now. The only issue that system has for any potential accumulating snows is the temp profile. Does the cold front from tonight's system reach the coast and gets south of the islands in time before the precipitation begins on the Monday system. The upper shortwave over the Rockies right now is quite strong on Water Vapor imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, wizard021 said: Was 150 miles too far west with Laura into Galveston. The eps and ecmwf have been garbage. Go with geps / cmc which have been most consistant benchmark/ se I don't the performance in the tropics is particularly relevent....especially since ECMWF has stated that they have focused on the mid latitudes at the expense of the tropics with respect to recent upgrades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Ecmwf / eps 60 hr track of Laura and 3 members got it right. Most were not even close. It also had a debuckle tracking hurricane Irma west of Tampa , which also busted. The quality in important systems has been lacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't the performance in the tropics is particularly relevent....especially since ECMWF has stated that they have focused on the mid latitudes at the expense of the tropics with respect to recent upgrades. leftward bias in surface cyclones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: SnowGoose, I think we should have a separate thread for the Monday event now. The only issue that system has for any potential accumulating snows is the temp profile. Does the cold front from tonight's system reach the coast and gets south of the islands in time before the precipitation begins on the Monday system. The upper shortwave over the Rockies right now is quite strong on Water Vapor imagery. I don't think we need a thread for it, but knock yourself out. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We stay the course. Thousand points of light. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think we need a thread for it, but knock yourself out. Yeah I was told not to start one ever again! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Lets see if the eps is too amped like usual I’m sticking with my 70/30 eps/gefs blend. It’s worked well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, wizard021 said: leftward bias in surface cyclones. I'm not a fan of blindly applying sweeping generalizations in meteorology...you need to assess the situation, and then consider the guidance at hand to determine what makes sense. I think hedging north with a potent SW developing in the south is wise here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Right. We all joke, but at the end of the day, I also think @Damage In Tolland is very accurate and meticulous with his measurements. I don't think anyone of this core group actually inflates totals. If anything I underestimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Why, did Fisher call me out back then? I think he was defending you for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: If anything I underestimate. Me too. I don’t have the passion to clear as often as I should nor do I get around to measuring in time-eg...if snow ends 6am I’m not measuring before 10 at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: I think he was defending you for that one. I missed that. I really like him and Juadah on Twitter. Say what you want about Judah, but he and Fisher are two of the more engaging public figures on social media that I have come across. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Yeah I was told not to start one ever again! Keen advice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Keen advice. yes sir 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I think he was defending you for that one. Pete B defended Ray’s measurement on the air in that one, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I missed that. I really like him and Juadah on Twitter. Say what you want about Judah, but he and Fisher are two of the more engaging public figures on social media that I have come across. I don’t follow Judah (prob should). Fisher is great for his mix of good meteorology, weenieism, and fun times. Very approachable A bunch of New England TV Mets are. Barry B was great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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