RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Still going after this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Final call. Can't believe the original forecast from almost 3 days ago is the finalized map. Made some changes to the text and highlighted W/NW CT as the area likely for the highest totals which may eclipse 20" locally. Also highlighted SE CT as being closer to the bottom of the range, around 12" but did not introduce a new range as i believe mixing will be brief, if at all. Leaned toward the EC mainly for thermals, general consideration from the 12Z NAM/GFS/UK/RGEM. Bufkit was incredible to see -50ub/s showing up for BDL. NAM was a little less impressive around 20-35 ub/s for BDR/BDL. Avg ratios look to be around 15:1 for BDL and 11:1 BDR if you believe the NAM/GFS output. Basically toned it down a little to 12-14:1. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 18z GFS destroys my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Very Jelly of my hometown just SW of Albany... 18z GFS with a sick panel for that band from BGM-ALB-RT 2 in MA. It even has a spot of 1.20" in 6 hours near the intersection of Albany County with Columbia County. Those are crippling snow rates. Hippy gets crushed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 GFS is great with the CCB too. Good run all around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Very Jelly of my hometown just SW of Albany... 18z GFS with a sick panel for that band from BGM-ALB-RT 2 in MA. Hippy gets crushed. Beast-ly Fat skis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, radarman said: Beast-ly Fat skis Just crushed. That's a lot of QPF in a very short period of time. You guys are going to make up for lost time so far. Excellent banding signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Fishers station WBZ 4 has a 16+ jackpot in about the same areas I mentioned yesterday. Easton Sharon Foxboro area. Could 100% see that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 18 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I think every ramp up for you coincides with shifts away from the goods here. Working in my phone though so not sure what you’re seeing. In any case congrats in advance on this one! the goofball insists on a min centered on kijd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I've always done the same thing. Dendrite cleared me up last night on that too. I didn't know the best actual band was NW of the best fronto... I just assumed the models missed it by a few miles, ha. That’s just fronto in 1 level. It slopes toward the cold side with height. The QS banding doesn’t have to magically line up with H7 all of the time. A lot of the time it’s 550-650. It’s like only using 850 temps for warmth aloft...sometimes it’s a torch between H7 and H85. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 That is a nice signal for hippy and radarman, Ineedsnow etc. Nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 GYX doubling down. Did not expect to see this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Gfs lingers snow in eastern ma until late tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, tunafish said: GYX doubling down. Did not expect to see this. They stole Ray's subsidence 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 GFS definitely hitting the ML goodies through the Berkshires back into NE PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, dendrite said: That’s just fronto in 1 level. It slopes toward the cold side with height. The QS banding doesn’t have to magically line up with H7 all of the time. A lot of the time it’s 550-650. It’s like only using 850 temps for warmth aloft...sometimes it’s a torch between H7 and H85. Ahh makes sense, I figured the average of 600-800mb would capture some deviation (like using an average thickness of a slice of atmosphere) but you're right if it's higher up at 500-600mb that makes sense. Thanks though, great learning experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Wow 18z a great suite! I will likely sleep 11-5 and be up for the fun here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 ill, kinda gross for CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Ahh makes sense, I figured the average of 600-800mb would capture some deviation (like using an average thickness of a slice of atmosphere) but you're right if it's higher up at 500-600mb that makes sense. Thanks though, great learning experience. That's where we joke about the PF currier and ives band, it's like 600mb many times. All those times where we said that you would get decent snows...it was from the area above 700. Sometimes looking at 500mb VVs will help you interpolate between 700 and 500 to get an idea. You can also look at the temps at those levels to get an idea of roughly where the -12 to -18c layer is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: ill, kinda gross for CT. I'm looking on pivotal now, and it's a classic case of "oh no the color changed so it sucks" but really Norwich is the state min qpf at 0.88", and I'm at 0.99" and Tolland is at 0.95" while Hartford is 1.05" and New Haven is at 1.25" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 But a shitty model is gonna shit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Wow 18z a great suite! I will likely sleep 11-5 and be up for the fun here. You’ll miss 2 hours of the fun based on that wake up time. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: GFS definitely hitting the ML goodies through the Berkshires back into NE PA Yay. The ski resorts here must be giddy. With no big warm-up in the forecast, they should be up and running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: ill, kinda gross for CT. Tossed and not factored no matter what it shows good or bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: I'm looking on pivotal now, and it's a classic case of "oh no the color changed so it sucks" but really Norwich is the state min qpf at 0.88", and I'm at 0.99" and Tolland is at 0.95" while Hartford is 1.05" and New Haven is at 1.25" Yea but if we not getting getting deformed I’d want us to be pinned up against the CF like the 20z herr. Being in between will be a little spotty. We’re still banging though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just don't expect to get 20"+ and I think most people will end up pretty satisfied with the 14" that they do get 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Tossed and not factored no matter what it shows good or bad lol kinda how I feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Fishers station WBZ 4 has a 16+ jackpot in about the same areas I mentioned yesterday. Easton Sharon Foxboro area. Could 100% see that We take, about 6 mi N of Sharon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, JC-CT said: Just don't expect to get 20"+ and I think most people will end up pretty satisfied with the 14" that they do get i do that and i'm still bummed out..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Another weenie map from the National Weenie Service 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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