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Active mid December with multiple event potential


Typhoon Tip
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Final call. Can't believe the original forecast from almost 3 days ago is the finalized map. Made some changes to the text and highlighted W/NW CT as the area likely for the highest totals which may eclipse 20" locally. Also highlighted SE CT as being closer to the bottom of the range, around 12" but did not introduce a new range as i believe mixing will be brief, if at all. Leaned toward the EC mainly for thermals, general consideration from the 12Z NAM/GFS/UK/RGEM. Bufkit was incredible to see -50ub/s showing up for BDL. NAM was a little less impressive around 20-35 ub/s for BDR/BDL. Avg ratios look to be around 15:1 for BDL and 11:1 BDR if you believe the NAM/GFS output. Basically toned it down a little to 12-14:1.

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18 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I think every ramp up for you coincides with shifts away from the goods here.  Working in my phone though so not sure what you’re seeing.  In any case congrats in advance on this one!

the goofball insists on a min centered on kijd

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7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I've always done the same thing.  Dendrite cleared me up last night on that too.  I didn't know the best actual band was NW of the best fronto... I just assumed the models missed it by a few miles, ha.

 

That’s just fronto in 1 level. It slopes toward the cold side with height. The QS banding doesn’t have to magically line up with H7 all of the time. A lot of the time it’s 550-650. It’s like only using 850 temps for warmth aloft...sometimes it’s a torch between H7 and H85. 

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Just now, dendrite said:

That’s just fronto in 1 level. It slopes toward the cold side with height. The QS banding doesn’t have to magically line up with H7 all of the time. A lot of the time it’s 550-650. It’s like only using 850 temps for warmth aloft...sometimes it’s a torch between H7 and H85. 

Ahh makes sense, I figured the average of 600-800mb would capture some deviation (like using an average thickness of a slice of atmosphere) but you're right if it's higher up at 500-600mb that makes sense.  Thanks though, great learning experience.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Ahh makes sense, I figured the average of 600-800mb would capture some deviation (like using an average thickness of a slice of atmosphere) but you're right if it's higher up at 500-600mb that makes sense.  Thanks though, great learning experience.

That's where we joke about the PF currier and ives band, it's like 600mb many times. All those times where we said that you would get decent snows...it was from the area above 700. Sometimes looking at 500mb VVs will help you interpolate between 700 and 500 to get an idea. You can also look at the temps at those levels to get an idea of roughly where the -12 to -18c layer is. 

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

ill, kinda gross for CT.

I'm looking on pivotal now, and it's a classic case of "oh no the color changed so it sucks" but really Norwich is the state min qpf at 0.88", and I'm at 0.99" and Tolland is at 0.95" while Hartford is 1.05" and New Haven is at 1.25"

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1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

I'm looking on pivotal now, and it's a classic case of "oh no the color changed so it sucks" but really Norwich is the state min qpf at 0.88", and I'm at 0.99" and Tolland is at 0.95" while Hartford is 1.05" and New Haven is at 1.25"

Yea but if we not getting getting deformed I’d want us to be pinned up against the CF like the 20z herr. Being in between will be a little spotty. We’re still banging though.

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