40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This run is mid level magic for berks ENE into SNH. Maybe tickling Ray. This is why we do not give out certainties with subbies. Its just north of me....that is what I have said dating back to the weekend. I understand that this is a long range, and I could have easily been wrong, theoretically speaking, but I have yet to see anything that makes me believe that I am in fact in error. However, verification is another matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I don’t think the subby zones will be that drastic. Like 2-3”/hr in band vs .5-1”/hr in ‘subby’. We’ll be aight. good point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Going to nap 6 to 9 then let the fun begin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: good point I’m not seeing boxing day like stuff on the upper air maps but I’m also not the pro so you tell me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’m not seeing boxing day like stuff on the upper air maps but I’m also not the pro so you tell me lol I agree....I think the 6-8" boxing day screw zones will be more like 10-12" in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’m not seeing boxing day like stuff on the upper air maps but I’m also not the pro so you tell me lol Ray has us in his JP...let’s see if we can make him verify? Hope so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: The dry air is going to eat away at the precip on the northern fringe like a game of pacman. Radar tease incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’m not seeing boxing day like stuff on the upper air maps but I’m also not the pro so you tell me lol I don't see a situation like that either. If I remember correctly, that was a product of the banded nature of the storm due to it being "too intense". But you do make a point...even in subsidence snow could still come down heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I don't see a situation like that either. If I remember correctly, that was a product of the banded nature of the storm due to it being "too intense". But you do make a point...even in subsidence snow could still come down heavy. And if places get 12/13” in your 15-20 zone so be it. Maps cant nail down specifics for every weenie’s deck even though we want it to. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, PWMan said: Radar tease incoming As will the hallucinations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Not sure if this 2:30 map was posted tweaked a little 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Very cute 18z HRR bufkit for BDL. what is really going to help with verifying higher range of totals will be the much higher ratios under the band. Should see ratios push 18:1 - 20:1. I would wager many are recording like 8-10'' in a 3/hr span...maybe even 11-12'' for the slant stickers 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its just north of me....that is what I have said dating back to the weekend. I understand that this is a long range, and I could have easily been wrong, theoretically speaking, but I have yet to see anything that makes me believe that I am in fact in error. However, verification is another matter. I guess I just think you’re in a good spot. Maybe not jack, but not he pork job you feared yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 15 inches 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I guess I just think you’re in a good spot. Maybe not jack, but not he pork job you feared yesterday. I agree with that...I don't expect under 1'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Not sure if this 2:30 map was posted tweaked a little LOL, I don’t necessarily expect it to come to fruition but not too often you see a Greenfield Jack. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I think I’m in a good location for this one. Meanwhile snow sky with lower clouds moving in while doing errands in metro west. Maybe early onset OES? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, weathafella said: I think I’m in a good location for this one. Meanwhile snow sky with lower clouds moving in while doing errands in metro west. Maybe early onset OES? Yes early onset OES 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 42 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Would be better as a gif but the NAM pivots the band right through central MA it appears but it rots. Even probably clips NW CT Band is probably just NW of the H7 fronto. So W MA into S NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Some 50-55 dbz's in MD within the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 33 minutes ago, dryslot said: The dry air is going to eat away at the precip on the northern fringe like a game of pacman. Sure, but models to some extent account for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Now that’s the spirit, our district has canceled virtual school for tomorrow! As it should be, let the kiddies go play in the snow! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Band is probably just NW of the H7 fronto. So W MA into S NH. I always misjudge that I think. I'm always inclined to think they are coincident, but in reality it's typically just northwest of where the best fronto is, right? Or does the slope influence the actual placement too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: Now that’s the spirit, our district has canceled virtual school for tomorrow! As it should be, let the kiddies go play in the snow! Go to school and learn some things. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Anyone know what Montauk's Station ID is? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: I always misjudge that I think. I'm always inclined to think they are coincident, but in reality it's typically just northwest of where the best fronto is, right? Or does the slope influence the actual placement too? best lift associated with this has been along the H6 warm front. So a map of 600mb fronto would probably be more indicative. Check those time-hgt plots on TT across the banding to see what height the best omega lines up with the best fronto. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Anyone know what Montauk's Station ID is? MTP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 11 minutes ago, dendrite said: Band is probably just NW of the H7 fronto. So W MA into S NH. Can a brother get a 30-mile shift? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: best lift associated with this has been along the H6 warm front. So a map of 600mb fronto would probably be more indicative. Check those time-hgt plots on TT across the banding to see what height the best omega lines up with the best fronto. This is something I really need to utilize more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 17 minutes ago, dendrite said: Go to school and learn some things. Plenty of things that can be learned spending time outside in nature. You sound like a grumpy old man, or maybe just mad your area is on the northern fringe zone. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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