Active mid December with multiple event potential

[Hoth]

I feel it.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, subdude said:

C and N ORH CTY screwjob. 

It’s about time! 

[DomNH]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

We saw this exact same situation with the storm last December...or maybe it was the year before. HRRR started indicating mixing and every single person dismissed it and it was over the same argument. I wish I had the brain power to remember specific events but I recall several over the past few years where this happened, especially during these early season events;

1) when precipitation intensity is light 

and

2) when best lift falls below the DGZ

it doesn't matter how thin that warm layer (even if barely boerderline)...now perhaps it will be as cold as indicated in the cloud layer as dendrite mentioned but I don't get why everyone is so quick to dismiss these things when we've seen them happen so many times before. 

No I agree that you can go to snow grains when the lift is weak and below the DGZ. I just don't see that happening in that example. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

We saw this exact same situation with the storm last December...or maybe it was the year before. HRRR started indicating mixing and every single person dismissed it and it was over the same argument. I wish I had the brain power to remember specific events but I recall several over the past few years where this happened, especially during these early season events;

1) when precipitation intensity is light 

and

2) when best lift falls below the DGZ

it doesn't matter how thin that warm layer (even if barely boerderline)...now perhaps it will be as cold as indicated in the cloud layer as dendrite mentioned but I don't get why everyone is so quick to dismiss these things when we've seen them happen so many times before. 

The problem with the algorithm is that even if the max lift is below the DGZ, it is still saturated above that up to like -10 or -11C....that's not even close to being sleet. You're gonna get seeder-feeder easily. If the air went dry above the -5C layer, then maybe it could be sleet....but even then, we are SNE and stick out into the ocean, so we have a lot of salt nuclei available and ice crystals can form with salt nuclei at much warmer temps.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Greg said:

Watching the Euro come out now before I stop looking at the Globals and focus on looking out the window at the snow falling.

fyp 

[Greg]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

We saw this exact same situation with the storm last December...or maybe it was the year before. HRRR started indicating mixing and every single person dismissed it and it was over the same argument. I wish I had the brain power to remember specific events but I recall several over the past few years where this happened, especially during these early season events;

1) when precipitation intensity is light 

and

2) when best lift falls below the DGZ

it doesn't matter how thin that warm layer (even if barely boerderline)...now perhaps it will be as cold as indicated in the cloud layer as dendrite mentioned but I don't get why everyone is so quick to dismiss these things when we've seen them happen so many times before. 

I fully agree with you. the HRRR is not garbage. It is a good tool for "now" casting as the storm just begins. It helps you pic out the potential heavier band closer to real time.

[TalcottWx]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Just FYI this is still experimental. But some FB hero mets are pimping it out I guess. 

It's a the OAN Fake News of models, run out of Alex Jones basement 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The problem with the algorith is that even if the max lift is below the DGZ, it is still saturated above that up to like -10 or -11C....that's not even close to being sleet. You're gonna get seeder-feeder easily. If the air went dry above the -5C layer, then maybe it could be sleet....but even then, we are SNE and stick out into the ocea, so we have a lot of salt nuclei available and ice cystals can form with salt nuclei at much warmer temps.

This is cool. Thanks super computer Will. 

[Greg]

3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

fyp 

It's physics is superior you know. Not God, but really good. Last Global to look at before the storm.

[CoastalWx]

Euro slams the WCB. Finally.

[subdude]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It’s about time! 

at the end of the season,  we'll still finish in the top ten. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

9 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

You awake yet? Or still meh?

I’m printing the IBM map and laying it on my lap as I drove home from the office, naked, in 10min. 

[Great Snow 1717]

9 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I want a machine learning model that learns how all the other models fck up and adjusts for them

In a way that is how Alphazero taught itself to play chess.Alpha zero wasn't programmed to play chess but it learned how to play chess by playing games against itself. 

[JC-CT]

11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm not talking about the algorithm...obviously it is picking up on some warmer layer somewhere if it's showing IP precip type. Unless thermals aren't built into the algorithm which would be pretty stupid and I'm sure the developers are a bit more smart than that. 

Perhaps the forecast sounding is not properly addressing the warm layer. I mean we've seen this happen dozens of times in the past. Everyone dismisses the mixing it shows and dismisses the HRRR everytime it shows something that isn't favorable. I mean how many times have people dismissed the HRRR when it's going all out and other models are opposite? If this was forecast to be a 3-6'' storm and the HRRR was spitting out 10-15'' would people be dismissing it, probably not. 

I'm not dismissing anything, I'm trying to understand why it would produce an IP ptype with that sounding. You're right that it might be more complex than just being below freezing, but I can't imagine that there is a warm layer that the model uses in its ptype algorithm but it wouldn't show it in the sounding. This is what I found, it's generally over my head when it starts talking about max rain mixing ratio. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/31/2/waf-d-15-0136_1.xml

[WxFreak11]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

We are having a normal good ol fashioned snow day here tomorrow.  The way it should be. 
I’ll tell you lots of kids aren’t gonna show up for on line learning during a snow storm...and I don’t blame them one bit.   

I agree! These kids have been through so much that a good ole fashioned snow day can only lift their spirits. 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

In a way that is how Alphazero taught itself to play chess.Alpha zero wasn't programmed to play chess but it learned how to play chess by playing games against itself. 

Yep. I want that for weather models. By the time it is done analyzing the GFS, it will have taught itself to facepalm.

[Baroclinic Zone]

That's a nice look on the Euro.

[WhiteLawns]

25 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Busy day. Our final call. Let's rock. 

Are you the guy that did the live stream last night? If you are you are really well spoken. Good job man!

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro slams the WCB. Finally.

Waited until the final run before the storm.

 

That's a good look though in all seriousness....good CCB action tomorrow AM...really cranking for your hood too.

[dendrite]

3”...thanks euro. Right back to where we were a couple days ago. At least the drama was fun for 24hrs.

[Greg]

6 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I'm not dismissing anything, I'm trying to understand why it would produce an IP ptype with that sounding. You're right that it might be more complex than just being below freezing, but I can't imagine that there is a warm layer that the model uses in its ptype algorithm but it wouldn't show it in the sounding. This is what I found, it's generally over my head when it starts talking about max rain mixing ratio. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/31/2/waf-d-15-0136_1.xml

I think its' trying to sniff out a very sneeky layer, about 10K feet of lower BL that might get into the southern CT region. Not a forecast, but a caution as we go forward.

[Whineminster]

11 minutes ago, subdude said:

C and N ORH CTY screwjob. 

Yeah.....dunno if I believe that.  We'll be more like the IBM shows. Especially if the firehose sets up like @ORH_wxman says and slams into the towering pinnacles we call the N ORH Hills. 

[The 4 Seasons]

Just now, dendrite said:

3”...thanks euro. Right back to where we were a couple days ago. At least the drama was fun for 24hrs.

peanut butta jelly time, peanut butta jelly time, peanut butta jelly time, peanut butta je

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

This is cool. Thanks super computer Will. 

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Man, locked and loaded on the Euro.  WCB to CCB action.  Hit me!

[weatherwiz]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The problem with the algorithm is that even if the max lift is below the DGZ, it is still saturated above that up to like -10 or -11C....that's not even close to being sleet. You're gonna get seeder-feeder easily. If the air went dry above the -5C layer, then maybe it could be sleet....but even then, we are SNE and stick out into the ocean, so we have a lot of salt nuclei available and ice crystals can form with salt nuclei at much warmer temps.

Awesome info, thanks.

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I'm not dismissing anything, I'm trying to understand why it would produce an IP ptype with that sounding. You're right that it might be more complex than just being below freezing, but I can't imagine that there is a warm layer that the model uses in its ptype algorithm but it wouldn't show it in the sounding. This is what I found, it's generally over my head when it starts talking about max rain mixing ratio. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/31/2/waf-d-15-0136_1.xml

gotcha...I think I see where the disconnect is coming from. I'm just talking about the potential in general while the focus was on that specific example. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Don’t care about jackpots, just want good snow growth!  Part 2 of last December’s bomb had 30dbz over my head on radar but with -SN falling while S, E and W of me got destroyed. 

[JC-CT]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

gotcha...I think I see where the disconnect is coming from. I'm just talking about the potential in general while the focus was on that specific example. 

correct

[ineedsnow]

Euro looks great!!!!!

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Don’t care about jackpots, just want good snow growth!  Part 2 of last December’s bomb had 30dbz over my head on radar but with -SN falling while S, E and W of me got destroyed. 

You look like you're gonna get some really good snow growth for a time in the ML goodies.