PWMan Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Here ya go. No thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Certainly based on the sounding you would expect all snow but even in times past...we have seen forecast soundings in similar situations which would completely nix mixing only for it to happen. The issue I think is the warm layer is so subtle that even a model with a resolution like the HRRR doesn't pick up on it, When precipitation is heavy you would certainly get snow but in those lulls...mixing is possible. Not saying this happens but we've seen it happen too many times in the past. if it doesn't pick up on it, then how is an algorithm based on its output showing sleet? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 IBM Graf. I know I’ve seen comments this model has done well at times recently 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Busy day. Our final call. Let's rock. Giddy up! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 48 minutes ago, mimillman said: Welp, that does it for me. Logan has cancelled all inbound flights from 4pm onwards. Oh well. Have fun guys. Damn! When the next signal happens, get in your car and drive. We’ve been back and forth to Chicago two ice since August going again right after New Years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Busy day. Our final call. Let's rock. That's a little aggressive but not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Also sucker hole over me again Relax, it will all be ok. “There is no pain you are receding...” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: IBM Graf. I know I’ve seen comments this model has done well at times recently Lol, much as I would like to believe it, have to toss that output. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: IBM Graf. I know I’ve seen comments this model has done well at times recently @Hoth with the 30 incher? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: IBM Graf. I know I’ve seen comments this model has done well at times recently Just FYI this is still experimental. But some FB hero mets are pimping it out I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Just FYI this is still experimental. But some FB hero mets are pimping it out I guess. I want a machine learning model that learns how all the other models fck up and adjusts for them 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Just FYI this is still experimental. But some FB hero mets are pimping it out I guess. Graf pimpin ain't easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: @Hoth with the 30 incher? I mean, I wouldn't say no! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: if it doesn't pick up on it, then how is an algorithm based on its output showing sleet? I'm not talking about the algorithm...obviously it is picking up on some warmer layer somewhere if it's showing IP precip type. Unless thermals aren't built into the algorithm which would be pretty stupid and I'm sure the developers are a bit more smart than that. Perhaps the forecast sounding is not properly addressing the warm layer. I mean we've seen this happen dozens of times in the past. Everyone dismisses the mixing it shows and dismisses the HRRR everytime it shows something that isn't favorable. I mean how many times have people dismissed the HRRR when it's going all out and other models are opposite? If this was forecast to be a 3-6'' storm and the HRRR was spitting out 10-15'' would people be dismissing it, probably not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: I want a machine learning model that learns how all the other models fck up and adjusts for them My cpu is neural net processor - a learning computer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: IBM Graf. I know I’ve seen comments this model has done well at times recently Shows that band further south and not near albany 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 30-36? over northern new haven county...seems reasonable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I'm not talking about the algorithm...obviously it is picking up on some warmer layer somewhere if it's showing IP precip type. Unless thermals aren't built into the algorithm which would be pretty stupid and I'm sure the developers are a bit more smart than that. Perhaps the forecast sounding is not properly addressing the warm layer. I mean we've seen this happen dozens of times in the past. Everyone dismisses the mixing it shows and dismisses the HRRR everytime it shows something that isn't favorable. I mean how many times have people dismissed the HRRR when it's going all out and other models are opposite? If this was forecast to be a 3-6'' storm and the HRRR was spitting out 10-15'' would people be dismissing it, probably not. I mean it's maxing at like -5C around H7....I think the p-type algorithm is just garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 As far as I know that graf output uses a model derived snow ratio. It may go a little wild in some of the banding 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Radar is looking absolutely beefy right now. The southern coastal component is ramping up quickly and it is big time snow in Virginia and starting to crank up in Pennsylvania. All a question of if it can sustain and build upon the structure later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: 30-36? over northern new haven county...seems reasonable. That would expiate the sins of the last few winters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Just FYI this is still experimental. But some FB hero mets are pimping it out I guess. Your boss Ventrice for one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, Hoth said: That would expiate the sins of the last few winters. You awake yet? Or still meh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 The blowing and drifting might be pretty fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: You awake yet? Or still meh? Had a minor bipolar episode last night, but giddy as fook right now. Best December event in a couple decades probably. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 17 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Here ya go. C and N ORH CTY screwjob. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 29 minutes ago, tiger_deF said: Here in the Boston area we have been so starved for a snow event... it has literally been years since the last decent snowstorm, far too much rain and ice versus feet of drifts of snow, just like my childhood. A small part of me is still worried about a bust but this could be real nice for a large area of SE NE Lol it hasn't been that bad, lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, DomNH said: I mean it's maxing at like -5C around H7....I the p-type algorithm is just garbage. We saw this exact same situation with the storm last December...or maybe it was the year before. HRRR started indicating mixing and every single person dismissed it and it was over the same argument. I wish I had the brain power to remember specific events but I recall several over the past few years where this happened, especially during these early season events; 1) when precipitation intensity is light and 2) when best lift falls below the DGZ it doesn't matter how thin that warm layer (even if barely boerderline)...now perhaps it will be as cold as indicated in the cloud layer as dendrite mentioned but I don't get why everyone is so quick to dismiss these things when we've seen them happen so many times before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Watching the Euro come out now before I stop looking at the Globals and focus on the Meso models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 14 minutes ago, weathafella said: Damn! When the next signal happens, get in your car and drive. We’ve been back and forth to Chicago two ice since August going again right after New Years. Interested I still see scheduled flights after 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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