RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Who cares.... you’ll get half Make sure move out of MA before she wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Ukie snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Big dog running now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 @40/70 Benchmark Think you'll release a post tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: No matter how good models look I will continue to find ways to convince myself that this is going to be congrats Foxboro while I get 3” of baking powder. Yeah for us to do well we really want this thing passing over syracuse or albany at this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: No matter how good models look I will continue to find ways to convince myself that this is going to be congrats Foxboro while I get 3” of baking powder. Yeah for us to do well we really want this thing passing over syracuse or albany at this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: No matter how good models look I will continue to find ways to convince myself that this is going to be congrats Foxboro while I get 3” of baking powder. Yeah for us to do well we really want this thing passing over syracuse or albany at this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Ukie snow Nobody needs to see that. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: No matter how good models look I will continue to find ways to convince myself that this is going to be congrats Foxboro while I get 3” of baking powder. Yeah for us to do well we really want this thing passing over syracuse or albany at this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Ukie snow Ray and I would run out of objects to break. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 He’s ‘crazy’ for a reason. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Ray and I would run out of objects to break. We all might. I'm sure some is Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 I’d hit the Ukie solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Euro looked amped going into Monday and a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Euro offshore for monday. Maybe C-1" spots? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Euro offshore for monday. Maybe C-1" spots? Much more believable than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 meh for monday on EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I’d hit the Ukie solution You’re about the only one in this forum 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Mangled flakes on the euro where the GFS and NAM had borderline advisory. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 So... some "lensing" and usage filtration going on ...lol - ... late to the morning party. I wonder if anyone's posted the least snow fall total map presently offered regarding this event ...doing so with the same zeal and attitude of joy - ...yeah right. Lol I was not personally impressed by the 00z suite in the handling of the Atlantic total pattern ... It's almost more in the 'complexion' of it - its hard to pick a discrete feature to demo this but it just sort of reverted by "attitude" toward a faster look ?? The 50/50 appears in the 00z Euro still, but it seem to be like... 4 deg of latitude more progressive so..noise? perhaps.. .but, I the idea here was that the 'noise' should sound like going the other direction. And I don't see a lot of -NAO migration in the 00z suite regardless of model camp, either. It seems yesterday's panache in that regard was not carried over so much into the 00z run - ... Fwiw, the 00z GEFs tele did also back off the -AO heading later in the week, and the NAO is technically positive albeit nearly neutral, along it's prognostic curve...so, again - we pick and chose the products we use at own risk I suppose... Be that as it may, ...the system for late Wednesday doesn't necessarily have to have a slowing/back-log exertion from the a retrograde Atl tendency... To reiterate last night .. if the PNA --> PNAP nuance a better post ridge bulge in the west, than it can amp and slow a little form the opposing direction...etc.. Regardless of these plausible modulators ...it's middling impact fast mover. I see it coming in like a wall 10 pm CT to 1am ASH and leaving by 10 to 12Z CT and mid morning up this way... It's like middle ground needle threading - there's some interpretation variance on what "needle threading" means ( apparently ..). It's subjective anyway... but to me, it has always meant narrow latitude of impact, ...not really much else. But usually, in fast flows... because the 'narrowing' and 'why' the flow is fast tend to be rooted in the same biases. Such that 20 miles on the N edge of storm output means you're on the in or the out. Dim sun to substantive accumulations over a short distance. So on a mid range chart, you're looking at a rifle shot at 400 m and trying to hit your city, through the threads of your sight-scope. . pilin' on metaphors... Storms that slow down get more 'circular' in geometrical circumvallate and that's why they are "bigger"... I see this as having some of that needling, but sort of bigger hybrid version ... It is a fast mover - and it is moving through some compression in the heights... I don't see much evidence of "slowing down" - not sure where people are seeing that in any operational model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, SnowEMass said: You’re about the only one in this forum I’d hope the entire CT contingent would too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Mangled flakes on the euro where the GFS and NAM had borderline advisory. LOL. I know who my $$ is on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: I’d hope the entire CT contingent would too. I’d take that solution and run too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, SnowEMass said: You’re about the only one in this forum I would too. Many CTers should. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 It is amusing watching Weather.com. Last night, they had 5-8", and 5-8" for Philadelphia on 12/16 (day and night respectively), then 8-12" and 5-8" before I went to bed, and now 3-5", and 5-8". I get that it is physically possible for Philadelphia to get well over a foot of snow in a La Nina December. We're running at record snow here in a La Nina since 1930-31, and close to record snow for the date (around double average for 10/1-12/12), and Boston had record snow in this part of the pattern in October. My research says higher snowfall La Ninas are much more likely in the NE above 150 ACE (1933, 1995, 2005, 2010, 2017) in the Atlantic, and also that low-solar La Ninas are better than the high-solar La Ninas for snow in Boston in particular (usually around 50"). I'm still skeptical of something that high so early for Philadelphia. It was interesting seeing 1947 on that list for NYC though for top late-Dec snows, that's been a very similar year for national snowfall anomalies since Fall. This is roughly your list of 6"+ daily snows in Philadelphia in December. This is all Decembers from 1931-2019. So forget La Nina, a daily total over a foot in December is just very rare in Philadelphia. The 1932 storm is the one I'd look at hard, as it's the closest date, with some similar ENSO/Atlantic/Solar things going on. Even 6.0"+ in a calendar day is like ~12 days in 90 years for Philadelphia (a couple more would show up if you did storms that started at 6 pm and lasted to 6 am the next day). 22.5" - 12/19/2009 12.4" - 12/24/1966 11.6" - 12/26/2010 10.9" - 12/12/1960 9.2" - 12/19/1945 9.0" - 12/30/2000 8.6" - 12/08/2013 7.4" - 12/19/1948 7.4" - 12/26/1947 7.3" - 12/17/1932 (ahem only other year with a cat 5 hurricane in Nov...) 7.0" - 12/05/2002 6.8" - 12/12/1982 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, weathafella said: I know who my $$ is on.... I used to feel that way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: My bar is 6"/warning level imby, so yeah, if I had to I'd sign. Well after what we saw earlier, I’m not touching that unless I have to, which I might lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: My bar is 6"/warning level imby, so yeah, if I had to I'd sign. Same here. I'd take the UKMET but still be a bit jealous of NYC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, Fozz said: Same here. I'd take the UKIE but still be a bit jealous of NYC metro As Yoda said, jealousy leads to hate. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: As Yoda said, jealousy leads to hate. And? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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