40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don’t think there is much of a chance for a SE drift. That s/w on the euro is a beast. That has a good chance of tugging the low a little NW on guidance. Also had a good chance of transferring later, which reduces concerns of blowing load to SW. Game on for at least a warning event IMO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Also had a good chance of transferring later, which reduces concerns of blowing load to SW. Game on for at least a warning event IMO. Excellent post. Completely agree-we’re doing this! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Also had a good chance of transferring later, which reduces concerns of blowing load to SW. Game on for at least a warning event IMO. But some like to blow their loads early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Also had a good chance of transferring later, which reduces concerns of blowing load to SW. Game on for at least a warning event IMO. Yeah, I mean we know the caveats, but agree with that as well. Weenies crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 this thread is/was intended for the mid/late week system but ... this is complicated and the foreground antics in the flow are involved with what transitively sets up downstream...which ( phew ) in turn modulates on the timing and placement of key evolving components for the latter system - so...the thread encapsulates the whole damn thing - Summary: Monday system may phase and stall into a 50/50 scenario - that would slow and probably back amplify the flow into the MA for the 16th.. or - Monday scoots out ..phases misses.. .and the 16th may rely upon western ridging (correcting...) and needle thread timing a potent S/W ... or - something in between ... But I don't know if we can really disconnect all this shit and do the whole thing justice - ... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 yet... all this predicated on the assumption the Pacific is sampling sufficiently to keep the 'wiggles' in check - but ...this thing Monday's nearing the coast and all the sudden? Given the antecedent and carrying on with it, fast flat high error prone flow ...determinism is at a premium. Think the general idea of Monday phasing and 50/50 the hell outta NF is probably heading in the right direction - too much multi-modal NAO support and it fits that paradigm really ... If there's ever a chance for the f'n bevy of guidance to get one of these damn NAO's right ...this would appear to be the best likely candidate time - That being the case ... the mid week approaching the MA I think gets some modulation - ...hmmm stroke goatees 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Also had a good chance of transferring later, which reduces concerns of blowing load to SW. Game on for at least a warning event IMO. Thinking it could be a NYC to NE warning event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don’t think there is much of a chance for a SE drift. That s/w on the euro is a beast. That has a good chance of tugging the low a little NW on guidance. WPC map for three days has had probabilities for snowfall that went well up into northern New England. I don’t think they have seen this as a southeast slider, Can you guys keep talking about the mid levels which always excites me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 36 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: But some like to blow their loads early. Oh to be young again. As always .... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 18z GEFS is beautiful for mid week. Better look then the 12z run fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 There are some massive hits in the individual ensemble members across various guidance 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 18 minutes ago, rclab said: Oh to be young again. As always .... Yup, now it’s just nights of occlusion. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: There are some massive hits in the individual ensemble members across various guidance Any graphics to display? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Yup, now it’s just nights of occlusion. I only wish I could get two fronts to meet. As always ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Lol...sitting in the park lot of Costco waiting on the euro before heading home. Normalcy to return in April 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Nothing wrong with a snowy Monday. Whets the appetite for Wednesday:Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 18z Euro less robust than 12z with the Monday deal, maybe 1" or so where cold enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Last 8 gefs runs: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Luke’s latched on. I wish him 12+. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, weathafella said: Luke’s latched on. I wish him 12+. Blocks get my weenie percolating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 That’s really good for storm 1.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Trended southeast from 12z. I mostly expect a non-event for Monday in SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Trended southeast from 12z. I mostly expect a non-event for Monday in SNE. That’s my guess. Maybe an inch somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 I’m fully invested and locked into a 1-3/2-4 inch event Monday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 18z GEFS is beautiful for mid week. Better look then the 12z run fwiw. A lot of rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 43 minutes ago, weathafella said: Lol...sitting in the park lot of Costco waiting on the euro before heading home. Normalcy to return in April Snow is more important than food. We all know that here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, kdxken said: A lot of rain? Over a tree farm in southborough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m fully invested and locked into a 1-3/2-4 inch event Monday An epic battle ensues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: An epic battle ensues What a song. Unbelievably good 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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