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Active mid December with multiple event potential


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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I envision a 3-4hr thump and then it is varying intensity. The upper end ranges will probably be only in a narrow area. 

That's kinda what I was thinking. I'm seeing a lot of exotic high end numbers down there on the upper ranges and kuchies, but like you said, it won't be widespread. Someone like skimrg will probably rack up an 18-20" and rot under a band. Those kuchies are theoretical values based on temps too. You need that lift in the DGZ and it really doesn't matter how cold the warmest temp in the column is. Also, if you're thumping 0.75"-1.00" in 6hrs that snow sample is going to quickly weigh itself down...especially with wind involved too. It's not going to be a jspin sample of 5" with 0.15" liquid that's perfectly stacked like a game of Jenga. 20:1 is tough to sustain for even a 6hr clearing when you're talking that much liquid. So if kuchie is saying 20:1 with 0.75" liquid that's all fine and dandy, but the 15" will probably be only 12" at the 6hr clearing and 10" after 24hr.

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I'm a little skeptical about the ability of models to accurately depict subsidence holes, especially small ones.  This will be a good test.  My feeling is that this will be by and large a people pleaser in SNE... Perhaps not as evenly distributed as say, the Superbowl 2015 storm, but without the huge sucking sounds we sometimes get, like say, last storm.

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

That's kinda what I was thinking. I'm seeing a lot of exotic high end numbers down there on the upper ranges and kuchies, but like you said, it won't be widespread. Someone like skimrg will probably rack up an 18-20" and rot under a band. Those kuchies are theoretical values based on temps too. You need that lift in the DGZ and it really doesn't matter how cold the warmest temp in the column is. Also, if you're thumping 0.75"-1.00" in 6hrs that snow sample is going to quickly weigh itself down...especially with wind involved too. It's not going to be a jspin sample of 5" with 0.15" liquid that's perfectly stacked like a game of Jenga. 20:1 is tough to sustain for even a 6hr clearing when you're talking that much liquid. So if kuchie is saying 20:1 with 0.75" liquid that's all fine and dandy, but the 15" will probably be only 12" at the 6hr clearing and 10" after 24hr.

Yeah ratios may be decent here at first, but then it turns to man snow for awhile. Fine by me, would like some meat in the pack and snow on the trees. I don't have a ratios fetish....you really can't here when you blow over 40kts in every storm..lol.

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1 minute ago, radarman said:

I'm a little skeptical about the ability of models to accurately depict subsidence holes, especially small ones.  This will be a good test.  My feeling is that this will be by and large a people pleaser in SNE... Perhaps not as evenly distributed as say, the Superbowl 2015 storm, but without the huge sucking sounds we sometimes get, like say, last storm.

Agreed. The subby zones rarely work out to any great degree. It tends to be a town or three , not 100 sq miles 

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1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said:

How about we park it over our heads, screw 128

Nah it parks out there for awhile. It may move SE sooner like they usually do. But it will only be in a narrow area. There isn't enough of a convergence angle to really drive CF enhancement much west of the boundary. 

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21 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Wondering if it’s a wall of +++SN down there with solid ratios and then it turns a little more ragged on radar with less impressive ratios as some drier air moves in aloft and the band shifts and sits north into MA/NH. Then it pivots through eastward for a last hurrah. 

I’m expecting 3-6, 8 if really lucky.  And some sand.  It shot the bed overnight for us.  I thought we had crossed the ru icon yesterday with so many models showing in good banding but alas

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3 minutes ago, radarman said:

I'm a little skeptical about the ability of models to accurately depict subsidence holes, especially small ones.  This will be a good test.  My feeling is that this will be by and large a people pleaser in SNE... Perhaps not as evenly distributed as say, the Superbowl 2015 storm, but without the huge sucking sounds we sometimes get, like say, last storm.

Yes, people will be pleased just because there hasn't been a widespread 6"+ event in over a year and half, especially for those in the coastal plain.  Most of the storms over the last 2 seasons have been more localized for SNE in terms of snow accumulations.

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