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Active mid December with multiple event potential


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6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Hoping we somehow get into a good band.. curious to see if the 12z models get rid of the snow hole.. I think it has some to do with being between two good bands.  

Exactly what happened for this storm March 6-7. Was painful. I think we only had 5-6" in Amherst from this. Just watched the radar get shredded while both east and west were pounding. 

NWS-BOX-CWG-snowfall-forecast-for-07-08March2018.JPG

 

Observed-snowfall-7AM-06March-7AM-08March2018.JPG

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5 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Noyes mentioned on air that rates may approach 4”/hr early tomorrow morning in some spots. That’s how you get a positive bust. Nudity. 

Noyes easily has the highest forecasted snow totals. The past 2 days he's been consistently forecasting higher snow totals than the other on air Boston mets. 

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5 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Jackpot zones will be tight and have nots will cry foul.  
I took a nice walk with the dog and was certainly aware of the fresh cold air against my face.  Whoever gets into the sweet spot of the outer deformation bands is going to get some good ratios. 
 

Yea, my hunch is whoever is under the spot where the western deform band stops it's N/NW progression will be the overall jack possibly.   You get an extra few hours of 15 or 20:1 feathers as its pivots and then rotates back through.  ALY mentioned strong lift intercepting the dendritic growth zone, so snow growth should not be an issue.  Whether that band is over your head, ENY, SE NY. Albany,  SVT,  CON,  dendrite,  Central Mass--who knows.  Seems like those outer deform bands always end up slightly NW of modeled.  Feel like we have seen that in the past few years where the modeled QPF is in SNE/CNE and then Oneonta, NY ends up with 34" of deform delight.  Hopefully have nots are not as extreme as Boxing day. 

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3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

That little sub zone from ray is now extending down to like Tolland County... not sure it plays out like that.... but there does seem to be a relative min on most models across central mass into northern Connecticut.

It's the area between the wcb and mid level banding, which kind of stays in the same place due to the fact that it is booking east so fast it counteracts the normal rotation of the banding we usually see. So it's real...but as I think Ray mentioned, if the mid levels hang on and the CCB can get going out east, that could save areas along the east coast.

At least that's my interpretation, I'm not a meteorologist but I did stay at a Motel 8 once in college.

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22 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Noyes mentioned on air that rates may approach 4”/hr early tomorrow morning in some spots. That’s how you get a positive bust. Nudity. 

No offense to Noyes but I have a hard time buying it. It's not like we're getting the obscene heavy snow signals we've had in other storms. It's also not really a rapidly deepening system. Do we have the ingredients needed for something like 4" an hour. I don't know.... 

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1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said:

No offense to Noyes but I have a hard time buying it. It's not like we're getting the obscene heavy snow signals we've had in other storms. It's also not really a rapidly deepening system. Do we have the ingredients needed for something like 4" an hour. I don't know.... 

Agree, he's really going out on a limb. Not sure why he'd even mention it.

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